I'm actually not worried at all about the midterms, or the 2024 presidential election.

[LuckyCharms]

I could be wrong of course, but I'm looking at it this way.

1) The timing of the Roe decision is going to hit the repugs hard. The pot is already boiling on this issue. Watch what happens in a few months when states fully implement draconian policies. People of all political parties are suddenly going to have a personal stake in the election(s). Of course, people who always vote know that there is always a personal stake, but the Roe decision is the one that is going to slap everyone in the face.

2) As of this moment, the J6 committee has, in my opinion, peeled off some trump voters, who will vote for DeSantis. This is a dilution of the base.

3) The base dilution mentioned above will get even worse as more facts come out.

4) I've read that Alex Jones is running? More base dilution.

5) Yes, Trump will run. Will he win the primary? I don't think he will. Sure there are plenty of diehards, but I have to believe that a good percentage of his base is starting to view his schtick as cartoonish.

6) There is a reason Biden won the popular vote by such a landslide.

7) With a fractured republican base, with the Roe decision and its subsequent and unpredicted effect on everyday life for all women, with the J6 findings...all of this is going to increase voter turn out.

8) As long as the Democratic party can get out their vote, and their messaging is good, I'm pretty optimistic.

[CentralMass]

1. I appreciate your optimism. However the tRumpers are still onboard with him.

[Elessar Zappa]

16. It's not about Trumpers.

He can only win 40% of the vote with Magats. It’s about so-called swing voters.

[artemisia1]

31. This. The "True Believers" will NEVER be swayed by facts or anything else. They want to feel like

they are good and righteous and significant while at the same time hurting the bad people (minorities, gays, women, etc.) as much as possible. Anyone who doesn't see the contradiction between wanting a feeling of righteousness while at the same time wishing to be malicious has never attended a right-wing fundamentalist evangelical church (forced to during the height of the Moral Majority and Reagan era).

It is the swing voters that matter -- as well as OUR base!

[TheRealNorth]

2. I believe it depends mostly on the turnout and voting of young women...

Maybe the J6 hearings will sway some moderates that probably had voted for Biden in 2000 even though they like low taxes and gas guzzlers. But I just don't see many minds being changed. All of the Republican women I have known were anti-abortion.

[OMGWTF]

24. Republican women are a lost cause; it's the young women who don't vote who need to show up.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Guess you missed the report of the districting case SCOTUS agreed to hear next term

Which, if decided as expected, would give state legislatures unbridled authority over federal elections and tip the scales further towards permanent minority rule.

I do agree that Dems midterm momentum seems to be gaining, and if they keep the house, and add enough seats in the senate to overcome Manchin/Sinema &(DiFi) obstruction, then it becomes imperative to kill the filibuster, expand the court (send the bill to Biden and make him veto it if his position remains unchanged), and codify all of the rights SCOTUS has removed in the past two weeks.

Dems must wield their power as ruthlessly as Republicans do when they have the majority.

[questionseverything]

26. After winning, expand the court as you said

Then we need to codify our voting rights, including the right for the people not state legislatures to determine our representatives, senators and electors

[SheltieLover]

4. Maybe tfg will lose puke primary & run as independent.

Plausible, as he just loves rallies & fund rai$ing! Here's hoping!

[tanyev]

9. And he's vindictive enough to want to damage 'disloyal' Republicans.

[SheltieLover]

15. Absolutely!

[Justice matters.]

23. Are there odds on bets he will whine it was RIGGED 🤤

after he loses the nomination

[Calista241]

5. GDP numbers for Q2 come out in July

And the Atlanta Fed is predicting another quarter of contraction. That will mean we are in an official recession. Hiring has already slowed in my industry, and layoffs are coming en masse.

I don’t see how we rescue ourselves in 2022 from a recession. Just remember, news cycles move on, and they move on quickly. Right now, Roe is only a week old, and a holiday weekend is here.

The economy will be the only issue that matters in 2022. The issue is, the loudest part of the Dem base will demand action on abortion and social issues. They’ll get the most cheers talking about those issues and it has the potential to drown out the rest of their message.

Republicans will be entirely focused on the economy. When they do talk about abortion, they’ll be able to say the SC does what the SC does, and they, as a congressman, or state office holder that they have little ability to impact the issue. If Republicans were smart, they wouldn’t ban abortion entirely.

I hope you’re right, but i have the sneaking suspicion that we’re drinking the coolaid and disaster is approaching.

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

13. Yea, I can confirm the coming layoff wave is being talked about in MI

I've heard from a few people around the Detroit area that manufacturing might be hit with layoffs late summer. Combination of falling auto sales due to short supply and higher interest rates and supply chain issues causing parts and raw material shortages still. August/September is the time frame they think. Fantastic timing......

[Progressive dog]

6. I am worried.

But I sure hope you are right.

[Kablooie]

7. But next year SCOTUS will decide election laws

Which will give partisan election boards complete unchecked power to control elections without consideration of state constitutions. They could change the slate of electors without consideration of the popular vote.

Several of the judges are already on board even before hearing arguments and it will happen just in time for the next presidential election.

The darkness is going to get a lot worse soon.

[gab13by13]

8. It doesn't matter who votes,

it matters who counts the votes.

[rubbersole]

27. Americans are now conditioned to suspect voter (election) fraud

The repub controlled state legislatures with the upcoming SC ruling are going to try to claim victory despite massive democratic turnout. It might work for them. It's their last chance to retain power. Expect every trick in the book, and then some.

[BannonsLiver]

10. 2024 should concern everyone

If it doesn’t people have learned nothing.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. I'm always concerned about elections.

But I’m not going the doom and gloom route that says everything is hopeless.

[BannonsLiver]

20. Who said you did?

[Elessar Zappa]

29. I was just giving a general response.

[DFW]

11. As for number 8, there is one more factor:

Remember what Stalin is supposed to have said:

"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything."

The Republicans tried to count the votes in 2020 and failed. They will try harder next time.

[peggysue2]

12. I'm not as optimistic as you are, however, . . .

I do think the Dems and all voters who have been appalled by the recent SCOTUS decisions and the increased crazy extremes of the Republican Party have been given a unique opportunity to flip the script and win the November elections. That doesn't mean it will be a walk in the park. As we get closer, it's going to get nasty and mean and perhaps even violent. But Americans who value our representative democracy need to hold the line, win wherever possible and send the fascist Christian Taliban back into the dark, dank cave from which they slithered.

No capitulation. No concessions. We need to follow Ukraine's example straight into and beyond this election cycle.

Throw the Sedition Party and their fan club onto the ash heap of history. Again.

[RANDYWILDMAN]

14. I worry about RW dirty tricks thinks like October surprise

don't just happen, the RW makes them happen.

Hostages
Comey
Willie Horton
Swift boaters (kerry was a fucking war hero and they still shit on him )
Hanging chads

[Poiuyt]

18. I'm not sure that Trump will run

He'll look at the polling, and if DeSantis or anyone else is ahead of him, he won't run. He won't want to suffer the embarrassment of losing again.

[PortTack]

19. True..but dotard will dig whoever is running especially deathsatan a very deep hole to stand in

He will influence his cult by telling them not to vote. Of course he won’t directly say that but the message will be very clear.

[groundloop]

21. Yeah, well, I wasn't a bit worried about 45* winning in 2016. It just wasn't possible .....

until there was a perfect storm. Between Putin's influence, Jame's Comey's incompetence, just the right amount of voter suppression, and who knows what else, the impossible happened and we'll be paying the price for a long time.

Now, to make matters even worse, the far right controls the Supreme Court who seem willing and eager to rid the US of civil rights and voting protections.

Bottom line is we can't get complacent and we absolutely need huge voter turnout.

[questionseverything]

25. Exactly

We have to keep the pressure on and beat them so badly there is no doubt which party the American people support

[Harker]

22. (5)

When Trumpsky loses the primary he can storm the republican't convention, shoot and/or hang a bunch of people and declare himself winner in a landslide.

It will have been rigged, naturally.

[groundloop]

30. I sincerely hope 45* and DeSatan take each other out.

[Harker]

33. I could get behind that.

They'd still manage to push some other loathsome fiend out front.

They might never again field a passably normal candidate.

[Bucky]

36. The Maga party isn't gonna nominate Nikki Haley, who'd be their strongest candidate I think

Honestly Liz Cheney & Adam Kinzinger would be their strongest candidates. But that sure as hell ain't happening.

[Hassler]

28. #8 is the one that worries me. Always.

[iemanja]

32. And when DeSantis wins the primary?

Is that much better? He won't have Trump's baggage, and as long as the economy is in its current shape, we're running an uphill battle.

[Bucky]

35. DeSantis needs to be hit on his authoritarian & failure-filled record in Florida

We need to rebrand him as Florida Man. He needs to be a meme, a meme of incompetence, high body counts, and educational failure.

Every drug-fueled trashbug story, every shooty cop, every overcrowded hospital, every gator attack, every destroyed wetland needs to laid at his feet. This is how you pitch against DeSantis; we need to make him and his horrible CV a national joke.

[Bucky]

34. It's not enough to BE optimistic. We all need to personally & publicly commit to GOTV

#1 - The betrayal of Roe (and other decisions) is an opportunity. But we have to convince swing voters that it's more important than inflation.

#2-5 - From what I've read and observed DeSantis, he's just as authoritarian as Trump, but will find a subtler and wiser way to utilize the extremist elements of the Right to win elections. Trump certainly now can't win in 2024. DeSantis I fear probably can.

#6 - Trump is the reason Biden won a majority. Biden's favorables are down in the 30s now, below where Clinton's were in 2016 (she was right around 40% favorable in Gallup and won 48-46%. Biden in 2020 won 51-47%. Trump improved his performance in 2020. DeSantis will be a stronger opponent)

#7 - Sorry, the Republican base is demoralized cause they're crashing down from the Trump hangover. They will rally by 2024, especially once they have a Republican House which will launch interminable bogus investigations. This cues up DeSantis to pull a Dubya and run pretending to be an outsider who will "end the rancorous bipartisanship." It's a smart pitch, despite being laughably dishonest. People will fall for it.

#8 - I love the Democratic Party. But we have to be honest and recognize we have a marketing problem. The pols who have figured out how to get elected with big numbers (John Fetterman, Sherrod Brown, and Gretchen Whitmer) never seem to get to the national ticket.

I think the key is to downplay the Hollywood glamor connections, push hard on economics, budget balancing, increasing the manufacturing sector, and play the culture war card selectively -- push against the aggressive SCOTUS insanity, provide common sense solutions to climate change issues, and talk about expanding access and opportunity, and be generally more future focused as opposed to the Republican flavor of always being resentment-focused. People really do want to hear a hopeful message; for some reason resentment and paranoia keep getting better marketing.