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Elon Musk gets the last laugh... (Original Post) Pluvious Jul 2022 OP
And you believe Musk? relayerbob Jul 2022 #1
NASA does! USALiberal Jul 2022 #2
NASA cares about Musk's opinions of Twitter? brooklynite Jul 2022 #13
ok lol nt Torchlight Jul 2022 #15
Laternwaste??? You are back!!! USALiberal Jul 2022 #19
Which piece is incorrect? FBaggins Jul 2022 #3
Elon is misleading, as usual. sir pball Jul 2022 #8
Doesn't appear to answer the question FBaggins Jul 2022 #18
As if Twitter - or ANY company Mike_in_LA Jul 2022 #4
I did read that he was asking them for bot info and they weren't giving to him. This was several onecaliberal Jul 2022 #5
They have said they gave him all the information he wanted. former9thward Jul 2022 #9
The trial isn't going to tell us if they handed everything over. They're all liars. onecaliberal Jul 2022 #11
He asked for "monetizable" user/bot info sir pball Jul 2022 #10
Nope jcgoldie Jul 2022 #6
The stupidity of all of this is comical genxlib Jul 2022 #7
an avalanche of shit waiting to flow through any gap Celerity Jul 2022 #14
It would appear that he made an offer without doing due diligence. OilemFirchen Jul 2022 #12
Signed a contract. Voltaire2 Jul 2022 #16
You're thinking about it from your own perspective FBaggins Jul 2022 #21
the 1b is only if for example he cant get financing moonshinegnomie Jul 2022 #22
Thank you, Oilem.. Musk , the Fascist Stupid Cha Jul 2022 #17
So, the laughing isn't over yet. Hugin Jul 2022 #20
yep. nt BootinUp Jul 2022 #26
If everyone is convinced that Musk will be ordered to complete the original deal MichMan Jul 2022 #23
They wouldn't take it to court if they had lied about the bots and Musk will likely have to pay Quixote1818 Jul 2022 #24
Empty nut sack days what? 48656c6c6f20 Jul 2022 #25
Twitter's odds of getting specific performance and making Musk close the deal LetMyPeopleVote Jul 2022 #27
... and expensive. Hugin Jul 2022 #30
Two questions come readily to mind jmowreader Jul 2022 #28
Edsel Muskrat is a boring POS - I'm expecting that he will implode before he's 60 GoneOffShore Jul 2022 #29
*snerk* Hugin Jul 2022 #31
Wrong take. Musk is in trouble. He Demsrule86 Jul 2022 #32
Who cares? imanamerican63 Jul 2022 #33
The more I read, the more I think this was about Tesla stock Sympthsical Jul 2022 #34

FBaggins

(26,758 posts)
3. Which piece is incorrect?
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:06 PM
Jul 2022

Twitter is a pretty tough spot. They could probably win in court, but it probably won't go far enough to get there... in part because they almost certainly can't get through a trial without disclosing the bot info.

sir pball

(4,759 posts)
8. Elon is misleading, as usual.
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:40 PM
Jul 2022

First and foremost he literally signed a contract to buy Twitter before any of the usual due diligence stuff. All other issues aside, he made his choice.

Second, and more importantly, Elon asked for and Twitter honestly declared the number of "monetizable users". It's not the overall number of bots but rather the number of bots that are "monetizable", i.e. users, bot or human, who can click on ads. Elon's probably technically correct - it ain't 5% of Twitter that's bots. But in terms of users that can make a profit, it probably is only 5% bots and other scum, so Twitter is legally correct.

Elon has always played this "AKYUSHULLY" game, but it looks like it's gonna finally bite him the ass; ideally to the tune of $44B and serious hurt for him and Tesla.

FBaggins

(26,758 posts)
18. Doesn't appear to answer the question
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 07:08 PM
Jul 2022

Twitter very likely will be forced to reveal in court information that they didn't want to give Musk. IF it gets that far (unlikely)

Revealing that data (if it is as we assume) defeats your "bots but monetizable" because advertisers won't knowingly pay for ads delivered to a "bot that can click ads" (which would very likely be fraud if they knew it was happening - so they can't make that argument).

None of which is likely to occur because the case probably won't get that far. Twitter will cut a deal at a cheaper price.

Mike_in_LA

(187 posts)
4. As if Twitter - or ANY company
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:06 PM
Jul 2022

would be like, "Dammit! Didn't think about that!"

More likely that Twitter has accurate data and Elon is being a troll.

onecaliberal

(32,895 posts)
5. I did read that he was asking them for bot info and they weren't giving to him. This was several
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:28 PM
Jul 2022

weeks ago.

former9thward

(32,080 posts)
9. They have said they gave him all the information he wanted.
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:42 PM
Jul 2022

We will have to wait for the trial to see who is telling the truth, if anybody.

sir pball

(4,759 posts)
10. He asked for "monetizable" user/bot info
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:43 PM
Jul 2022

And Twitter honestly provided that. The fact that 95% of bots aren't "monetizable", i.e. they don't click ads, apparently escaped Genius Boy.

genxlib

(5,535 posts)
7. The stupidity of all of this is comical
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:39 PM
Jul 2022

Recognizing that Twitter has too many bots is very closely related to recognizing that you have to enforce standards for what can be posted.

So the reason for him backing out is almost contradictory to his reason for wanting in.

At the end of the day, anyone that runs a social media company will need to control content because there is an avalanche of shit waiting to flow through any gap.

Celerity

(43,499 posts)
14. an avalanche of shit waiting to flow through any gap
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:51 PM
Jul 2022

perfect summation of christofash Rethug 'Murica

OilemFirchen

(7,143 posts)
12. It would appear that he made an offer without doing due diligence.
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 04:49 PM
Jul 2022

That's not Twitter's problem. It's not likely that they'll be forced to divulge information not requested prior to a formal agreement, unless they intentionally withheld that information - which certainly doesn't seem to be the case.

The meme is, unsurprisingly, ignorant drivel.

Voltaire2

(13,159 posts)
16. Signed a contract.
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 06:10 PM
Jul 2022

He can back out but at a minimum it is going to cost a lot of legal fees. My guess is that he will end up settling for some large fraction of the 1B penalty.

FBaggins

(26,758 posts)
21. You're thinking about it from your own perspective
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 07:12 PM
Jul 2022

We don't want him owning twitter, so the best possible outcome if for him to pay much of the contracted fine for backing out.

But that isn't the best deal for Twitter. They aren't suing for a billion dollars. They're suing to get him to buy the company for what he offered (which is FAR more than the current market value - with or without the penalty).

They want as close to 44B as they can get... not to kill the deal.

moonshinegnomie

(2,487 posts)
22. the 1b is only if for example he cant get financing
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 07:19 PM
Jul 2022

by just backing out he could be on the hook for the entire 44B.
twiter is going to sue him for specific performance which if he lose will mean he has to pay the 54.20/share

Cha

(297,655 posts)
17. Thank you, Oilem.. Musk , the Fascist Stupid
Mon Jul 11, 2022, 06:23 PM
Jul 2022

trump fan better Not "have the last laugh."

I like that.. "drivel". Boom.

Please Fight to Save Our Democracy💙 in 2022 & 2024!

MichMan

(11,972 posts)
23. If everyone is convinced that Musk will be ordered to complete the original deal
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 12:33 AM
Jul 2022

Why hasn't Twitter stock price been going back up close to the $54 bid he made previously ? You would think investors would be buying like crazy right now in order to cash in when he loses in court, this driving the price back up.

Instead it has been going way down in value. Why?

Quixote1818

(28,968 posts)
24. They wouldn't take it to court if they had lied about the bots and Musk will likely have to pay
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 01:13 AM
Jul 2022

1 Billion to Twitter if he pulls out. Pretty dumb mistake.

LetMyPeopleVote

(145,558 posts)
27. Twitter's odds of getting specific performance and making Musk close the deal
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 02:14 AM
Jul 2022

My son and I are both corporate lawyers and we have both read the merger agreement and the letter from Musk's attorneys. My son subscribes to Matt Levine's newsletter. Levine is a former Wachtell attorney, investment banker and now has a column at Bloomberg. My son emailed to me the latest column and it is a good legal analysis of the Twitter lawsuit against Musk.



https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-09/elon-s-out?sref=1kJVNqnU#xj4y7vzkg

The fact that Musk is working in such bad faith here — that he seems so unconcerned with law and the contract he signed — cuts both ways. On the one hand, it will certainly annoy a Delaware chancellor; Delaware likes to think of itself as a stable place for corporate deals, with predictable law and binding contracts, and Musk’s antics undermine that. On the other hand it might intimidate a Delaware chancellor: What if the court orders Musk to close the deal and he says no? They’re not gonna put him in Chancery jail. [6] The guy is pretty contemptuous of legal authority; he thinks he is above the law and he might be right. A showdown between Musk and a judge might undermine Delaware corporate law more than letting him weasel out of the deal would.

But the other thing that has to happen, for Twitter to get specific performance, is that “the Debt Financing ... has been funded or will be funded at the Closing.” Musk agreed to buy Twitter with $33.5 billion of his own money and $13 billion of debt financing from his banks, [7] and if the banks don’t put up their $13 billion then he doesn’t have to put up his $33.5 billion: In that case, he can pay the $1 billion to walk away.

Now, the banks have signed commitment letters obligating them to put up the money, and those commitment letters do not give the banks a ton of outs.....

This is not a perfect out: In theory, Twitter could ask a court to order Musk (to specifically perform his covenant) not to blow up his financing. There is some history of Delaware courts doing that, and of not being fooled by merger buyers who try to blow up their own financing. The banks’ commitment letters do not give them an out for anything that Musk does or doesn’t do; if Twitter cooperates with the financing banks and a court finds that there’s no cause to terminate the merger agreement, then in theory the banks should have to fund, so specific performance should still be available. But it’s messy, and you can sort of see a path to “Musk says the deal is off, so his banks walk away, so his financing isn’t available, so he doesn’t have to close the deal and can get away with just paying $1 billion.”

I like Twitter’s odds — its odds of getting specific performance and making Musk close the deal — in court, but I don’t think anything is a certainty at this point. And obviously Musk will make this fight as unpleasant as possible; already the attorney general of Texas has opened an investigation of Twitter’s bot numbers in order to harass Twitter and capitalize on Musk’s popularity with Republican voters. I have suggested in the past that Twitter’s best weapon in this dispute would be banning Musk from Twitter, because he is such an addict, but in fact he recently stayed off Twitter voluntarily for nine days, which I assume he did just to prove to Twitter the company that he can survive without Twitter the product. It is all going to be pretty awful and stupid

Both my son and I believe that Musk breached the merger agreement and that the $1 billion fee is the floor that Twitter should get.

Having a former Wachtell lawyer agree with our analysis amuses me.

This litigation will be fun to watch

Hugin

(33,202 posts)
30. ... and expensive.
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 07:42 AM
Jul 2022

Twitter Inc. seems a little above typical so far in its proactive legal stance. They have had several months to prepare and have used the time wisely. In the media at least, they have presented themselves as an earnest and open partner to the deal. Their final move so far being to secure from what you’ve said and is echoed in the business news as competent representation.

Musk on the other hand strikes me as the type who as he sees himself as the master of the universe will initially try to represent himself. Relying on his sense of entitlement and what his posse of supplicating yes doormats have convinced him of his infallibility in all things to carry him through. Until it doesn’t impress the legal system. Whereupon he will scramble for legal aid and rightfully pay a premium for it. Which will initially buy him some time to continue feeling his oats and blabbing away making matters worse as they motion for a delay to come up to speed on his case.

Which is where I usually lose interest in the show.

I’m glad you’re here to talk us through the proceedings.

jmowreader

(50,562 posts)
28. Two questions come readily to mind
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 02:18 AM
Jul 2022

First, how could you even tell how many Twitter bots are out there? I've been told that some bots have very distinctive signatures - like tweeting at certain intervals, having a different "desktop to mobile device" tweet ratio than a typical human Twitter user does and not retweeting anything - but (1) not all humans "tweet like a human rather than a machine" and (2) it doesn't seem like a huge issue to throw a few RND commands into your bot's source code to give it a more humanistic feel. Yeah, if you named your bot account "Elon Musk Praisebot" you'll get picked off quick, but most people aren't quite that stupid.

The other: if this goes to court and Musk forces Twitter to reveal the number of bots out there, what happens if either (a) the total bot population is down around two to three percent of the total user population and/or (b) there are a ton of Musk/Tesla/SpaceX/Boring Company/other Musk-related bots?

GoneOffShore

(17,340 posts)
29. Edsel Muskrat is a boring POS - I'm expecting that he will implode before he's 60
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 02:27 AM
Jul 2022

I don't have any evidence, just a feeling.

Demsrule86

(68,667 posts)
32. Wrong take. Musk is in trouble. He
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 08:18 AM
Jul 2022

He violated confidentiality, got buyers remorse and hurt Tesla. Watch Ford and GM are going to bury him. I expect he will pay damages.

imanamerican63

(13,814 posts)
33. Who cares?
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 08:27 AM
Jul 2022

As long as Trump isn’t back on Twitter? I will happy if this deal doesn’t get done! Musk is a rich man forcing his will on who ever he can and Twitter is like Facebook which allows people to post false statements. There is no difference between Musk and Twitter. It is all about who has the power to control people.

Sympthsical

(9,111 posts)
34. The more I read, the more I think this was about Tesla stock
Tue Jul 12, 2022, 08:38 AM
Jul 2022

He was able to off-load over $8 billion in Tesla stock whose options were about to expire without anyone really questioning it, because he needed the money to buy Twitter. However, if the Twitter deal falls though, he'll have to pay $1 billion.

So that's $7 billion he walks off with. The $1 billion wouldn't even really matter to him.

The lawsuits will be epic though.

The meme is really funny. "Under no circumstances should Twitter allow Musk to buy them!" Some months later. "He has to buy it!"

So much of this is tangled up in whether or not people like Musk and which scenario they perceive will hurt him more that throwing Twitter on a bonfire has become almost an ancillary consideration.

Musk will be fine. He's worth an unfathomable amount of money and doesn't care. Twitter might be less fine. A lot less fine.

But then, I'm one of those people who would be happy to see Twitter immolated. One of the worst things to happen to our culture, particularly in the realms of information and journalism. Our political discourse is now internet slap fights that have kids in high school thinking, "People really need to grow up and get a grip . . ."

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