The Supreme Court Is More Unpopular Than Ever. That Could Help Democrats.
The Supreme Court’s conservative justices aren’t on the ballot this November. But for Democratic voters, the upcoming midterms are looking more and more like a referendum on the country’s high court.
In late June, when the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion in a contentious and divided ruling, Republicans had a solid 2-percentage-point lead over Democrats in generic-ballot polling, which asks Americans whether they plan to support Republicans or Democrats in the upcoming congressional election. A little over two months later, though, and abortion is mostly or completely illegal in 14 states — and those generic-ballot polls look very different. According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, Democrats now have more than a 1-point lead over Republicans.
That’s a remarkable shift in a year when Republicans should have the wind at their back — normally, the president’s party loses seats in the midterm elections. And although things could change in the months leading up to November, there’s mounting evidence that the Supreme Court’s ruling in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization is galvanizing Democrats and shaking up the political landscape in the process.
A Pew Research Center poll conducted Aug. 1-14 found that more Americans have an unfavorable view of the Supreme Court than at any other point since Pew began asking the question just over 35 years ago. Only 28 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have a favorable view of the Supreme Court, down 18 points since January and nearly 40 points since August 2020. Republicans’ views of the court, meanwhile, have gotten a bit more positive since the beginning of the year, which has created a gaping 45-point partisan gap in the Supreme Court’s favorability rating.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-supreme-court-is-more-unpopular-than-ever-that-could-help-democrats/
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