From the OP article:
Poorly-equipped, poorly-trained, poorly-supplied, poorly-led troops who are fighting for a government with essentially no allies that lies to them for a cause that rings hollow to conquer and kill people in another country who essentially hate them are fighting well-equipped, well-trained, well-supplied, well-led troops who are defending their homes and families for their freedom and are highly motivated to prevail, all with the help of many allies around the world.
The eventual rout of the first group in the face of the second is all but a mathematical equation, as history shows us what happens in these situations. And Russia has literally nothing it can do to increase the quality of the equipment, training, supplies, leadership, or morale of their forces: those are baked hard into the equation at this point. The truly sad part is that Russia has already lost, but much fighting and death happens in war when the result is essentially a foregone conclusion, from the ending of World War II to the ending of the U.S. Civil War to the Vietnam War, and sometimes the worst battles happen close to the end. At least in this current case, there are no horrific battle for Berlin or Okinawa or Siege of Petersburg where a desperate enemy regime is putting up a last-stand type resistance in its home cities; Russia is losing heart fighting on Ukrainian territory and, in the end, can just go home with almost zero realistic chance Ukrainian forces will continue the war into Russia proper. This is not the Great Patriotic War, Russia’s term for World War II, with Russia saving itself from annihilation in Stalingrad and Leningrad; no, Russian soldiers can just pack up and go home and return to their families here, it is the Ukrainians that are fighting for their survival.
Thus, the main hope I have is that Russian forces will just get tired of fighting and dying for lies and nothing more, will start refusing to fight in Putin’s disaster of a war, and, that, much like Russian units that mutinied against Tsar Nicholas II’s regime in 1917, will turn around and march on Moscow to end the war by ending the rule of a tyrant—as has been my hope since early March—or, that someone in the Kremlin will do a truly patriotic duty and we will have an announcement that Putin has died peacefully in his sleep.
Regimes that treat their soldiers so badly for so long and keep losing tend to not survive long, and this is one of the basic facts of history. From the very beginning it was obvious Russia was callous and careless with the lives of tis troops, and, at a certain point, the Russia military will hit its breaking point if this war continues. We may be seeing that moment now, or it might be a series of separate breaking points, but it is happening and the Putin regime’s days are numbered. Perhaps it can avoid a 1917, but after such a horrible outcome, it may end up more like the warmongering, genocidal Milosevic regime, with its downfall not long after a disastrous war and coming from its own people in 2000 (he was a client of Russia’s at the time, notably).
On the Writer
Brian earned a M.S. in Peace Operations from the George Mason University School of Public Policy. There he studied abroad in Liberia, evaluating the United Nations Mission in Liberia, and studied abroad in Israel and the West Bank, examining the conflict there. He also holds a B.A. double major in Politics and History from Washington and Lee University, where he engaged in a study abroad program in Japan and also visited Italy, Austria, and Cuba. He now works as a freelancer writer and consultant and lives in Amman while pursuing a career in international affairs.
https://www.mic.com/profile/brian-frydenborg-16234408
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There are a lot of windows in Moscow.
