Russia will need to move troops up from the South

[edhopper]

were they were lured by Ukrainian misinformation.

Will we see a counter-counter offensive? They just bought a ton of N Korean armaments for a reason.

[ColinC]

1. There really is a strong push in the south

Ukraine took back a ton of towns by Kherson. Of course, unlike the offensive in the north, there weren't much (if any) pics of the town being liberated by Kherson. 🤔

[GreenWave]

2. They have been underwhelming when given overwhelming power.

And would North Korea be around, to advise?

[Igel]

9. The North Korea weapons were buy-backs.

Old Soviet stock.

[peggysue2]

3. The push in the south is still advancing

From what I've read, the Ukrainian military has used the last several weeks/months softening the terrain (the so-called 'shaping' exercises) by blowing up supply depots, logistical and intel HQ's and perhaps most importantly . . . bridges, even the pontoon bridges and ferries the Russians have feverishly tried to establish and utilize. Which means troop movement and materiel from the south to north will be difficult at best.

The Ukrainian military has done an exquisite job luring the Russians into positions most favorable to Ukraine. Doesn't mean any of this will be easy but the Ukrainians have been very smart thus far.

[Igel]

10. And the good thing is, it was after the Russians moved a lot tech into the region.

"Please, Mr. Putin, create extra large stockpiles for us to target."

[Chainfire]

4. Buying and deploying are two different things.

Politicians may soon be taking over from the failing generals. Putin must be sleeping with one eye open. How humiliating it must be for the 2nd most powerful military in the world to have to go scrounging weapons from N. Korea....

If Ukraine can keep up the pressure things may change rapidly.

[getagrip_already]

5. A large number (20k) of RUS troops are bottled up and can't move.....

They were cut off when the bridges were taken out. They are being starved of fuel, ammo, and food.

They are in no position to move anywhere except in a body bag or under a white flag. Troops on the other side of the river can move, but it is a long way around for them to get there......

It's almost like the UAF knows what it is doing?

[GregariousGroundhog]

8. To be fair, you left out one option for the cut off Russians

They can always swim across to the Russian side the Dnipro River.

[relayerbob]

6. They bought NK kit because UKR has destroyed most of theirs

I wouldn't count on it working very well, assuming they can even get it to anywhere useful in Ukraine. Those shipments will be being watched by satellite every step of the way. As soon as they get to UKR, it will become HIMARS food.

[GregariousGroundhog]

7. I don't believe Kherson is a feint or misinformation

Kherson's geography heavily favors a Ukrainian offensive. The bridges over the Dnipro River have been repeatedly targeted by the Ukrainians, as have any pontoons and ferries brought in by the Russians. Ukraine had and still has every intention of taking back all the land west of the Dnipro.

What's so amusing here is that it was obvious to everyone was happening. Russia's correct course of action would have been to keep enough forces west of the Dnipro to execute disproportionate casualties on the Ukrainians via ambush attacks and a fighting withdrawal. That's not what Russia did, instead they decided to reinforce their lines.

Ukraine saw an opportunity, and delayed their offensive by a couple of weeks. Now 20k-25k Russian's are stuck west of the Dnipro, and Russia presented Ukraine with an opportunity to flank the right side of their Donbas front. The only question right now is whether Ukraine cross over the Oskil River or whether they stop there to reorganize and resupply.

[edhopper]

11. Love hearing

from all the knowledgeable DUers!