NYT, Yes, the Polling Warning Signs Are Flashing Again

[edhopper]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/12/upshot/polling-midterms-warning.html

Ahead of the last presidential election, we created a website tracking the latest polls — internally, we called it a “polling diary.” Despite a tough polling cycle, one feature proved to be particularly helpful: a table showing what would happen if the 2020 polls were as “wrong” as they were in 2016, when pollsters systematically underestimated Donald J. Trump’s strength against Hillary Clinton.

The table proved eerily prescient. Here’s what it looked like on Election Day in 2020, plus a new column with the final result. As you can see, the final results were a lot like the poll estimates “with 2016-like poll error.”

The charts are particularly distressing.


Note, Silver is not predicting a Democratic loss, he is pointing out the flaws in the polls in the last few elections that favor the GOP.

It is a sobering article that we have to take seriously.

[pwb]

1. No. The Woman Blue tsunami will end republicans at every level.

Fuck this Wealth owned medias opinion.

[Demsrule86]

2. This is a midterm...and not the same. And fuck Nate Silver...he is the worst of late. I think the

polls are the polls and with Biden's approval rising, it will get better so I will ignore the doom and gloom you have presented here with no evidence that it is true or even relevant. This is not a midterm and the GOP is in trouble.

We see evidence in specials and in Kansas. Also, I don't think the polls were wrong in 16. Comey's little trick about reopening the investigation of Hillary two weeks before the election changed the made folks vote against her. Comey in essence cost us the election...so again I am sick of Silver trying to make a name for himself by breathlessly proclaiming nonsense...he pretty much sucks. I don't go there often.

[edhopper]

3. I hope you are right.

I am not endorsing Silver here, but the article is worth reading and discussing.

[Demsrule86]

4. I read it again...and still think it is a bullshit article which relies on no polls and general

election...not a midterm. The NYT...had been wrong more times than silver this year...so what is scary about made-up polls and a made-up idea that the polls were wrong in 16 which they were not...Comey was what was wrong. I don't see anything scary about it.