NY Times/Siena Trump vs Biden 2024 poll (Biden is ahead)

[Polybius]

I doubt Trump will be a free man in 2024, but here's the poll anyway. Trump 42%, Biden 45%. 13% are either undecided or will vote for someone else.


https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/16/upshot/september-2022-times-siena-poll-crosstabs.html

[yonder]

1. Am I surprised it's that close? Nah. Bothered? Damn straight.

[Tree Lady]

2. When I see polls like this I wonder about the 42%

They must be voting R only most of them. I then think if we had a really really bad candidate what would I do? I couldn't vote republican because of what they believe in. My choice would be vote for bad guy if I thought he would at least go alone with our issues or not vote.

I think that is what some republicans are going through. They are voting for the issues they believe in. To us they seem like crazy insane way of living abortion, guns, against environment, etc but to them they believe fiercely that they are right.

[ProfessorGAC]

11. Seems Logical, But...

...according Pew, Gallup, & Quinnipiac only 23-24% of voters identify as R.
Since around 46% identify as independent, this poll suggests 18+% of 46% are reflexively voting R, per your theory. And, there's no reason not to buy into your theory, at least mostly.
To me, this means those people are not independents.
If after 6 years, they would vote R when the R is TFG, they're Rs.
Their self-identification as an indie is a delusion.

[Tree Lady]

12. Not very many are real independents

Most lean right or left and vote with them because no real winning candidates except a few.

I also think a lot of republicans moved to independent so they don't have to say they are for Trump.

[Harker]

3. The only thing Trumpsky should be running for is his life.

42% of the respondents are irredeemably deranged.

[Polybius]

6. Well said

I wonder what a DeSantis (or another Republican) vs. Biden poll would look like. Would Trump poll better or worse than other Republicans?

[Harker]

7. I suspect Trumpsky is a lock.

The sane ones are outnumbered and fractured, I suspect.

[Justice matters.]

8. But now that he "threatens" turtleman & his "RINO's" in the Senate...

loud and clear (the Senate that saved his traitorous orange bottom twice) calling him "a disgrace" (and them by ricochet) to incite his armed Qultists against them... Maybe the former GOP PTB will start thinking about ways to get rid of him breathing

[Harker]

10. I would think he'd be at or near the top of a lot of disparate lists. n/t

[Polybius]

13. He's a lock now

But I mean if he's in jail, I wonder what the poll would be against another Trumper. I agree no sane Republican has a chance.

[Harker]

16. I share your curiosity.

Way too close for my liking, regardless of the separation.

I like the thought of him being in jail, or otherwise incapacitated.

Much depends on the timing. Trumpsky, if he has sufficient time, will turn his horde against any potential competitor. If he's out of the race soon, though, someone like DeSantis might be able to woo the faithful with his own deplorable brand of cruelty and depravity.

[PortTack]

4. Polls..really not very accurate. Last 3 election cycles they were way off.

[Polybius]

5. Percentage-wise 2016 was alright

They predicted that Hillary would win the popular vote by about 3 points. I can't remember 2020, but Biden won by 4.4 points.

[Mr.Bill]

9. It baffles me how someone could be undecided

given those two choices.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. Here's the thing

New presidents often face polling like this that shows people have regrets. It's just the nature of holding power. Polls came out showing people preferred McCain and Romney over Obama after Obama beat them. Polls came out showing the public preferred Hillary to Trump after Trump was in office.

Biden is polling ahead of Trump consistently, that means he'd probably crush him in a rematch.

[Polybius]

15. "Polls came out showing the public preferred Hillary to Trump after Trump was in office"

Actually that is the one time it didn't happen. I remember when Trump was a year in, a poll came out that showed him beating her. For some crazy reason, her negatives were still high.