I wonder if any polls are taking into account

[edhopper]

the amount of election rigging, voter disenfranchisement and partisan gerrymandering the GOP is doing for November?
To me that is the biggest unknown, and could cost us our democracy.
Who people say they will vote for is only half the story. How many of them will get a chance to vote is the rest.

[intrepidity]

1. Sooooooo true. knr

[ProfessorGAC]

2. Probably So

Polling prediction usually use patterns of prior elections, comparing them to outcomes.
Since the things you brought up have been happening since the 80s, the predictions are likely weighted accordingly.
Now, individual polls may not be, but aggregated predictive models likely are.

[edhopper]

6. The things I mentioned

have not been happening to this degree since Jim Crow.
We are at a whole new level for modern elections.

[ProfessorGAC]

19. We Disagree

I think you're understating the shenanigans over the past 40+ years.
Besides, I don't get why you feel poll modelers are oblivious to the things you & I know.
If we know it, why wouldn't they?

[edhopper]

21. Indeed

why shouldn't they. Yet I do not see them taking this into account in the results. The in-poll data does not address this.

[RKP5637]

3. K&R!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! n/t

[Meadowoak]

4. Vote like we're 10 pts. behind

[edhopper]

7. I can only vote once

and it doesn't matter how people want to vote, if the GOP in power stops them.

[Meadowoak]

14. the problem we have, is too many dems stay home. we have a lot

more registered democrats, than republicans, we can win any race if we ALL vote. you're correct about the GOP, we may not have many more chances to vote. I worry that if the dems think we're ahead in the polls, they don't bother to vote. In reality, we start at about 6pts behind in every race due to gerrymandering and the electoral college.

[edhopper]

15. You are correct

if we could get young people to vote in the same numbers as seniors, we would win every national election. How do we convince them that their future lies in the balance. It should be obvious.

[Meadowoak]

18. Hopefully Roe woke some of them up, we'll find out in Nov.

[edhopper]

22. Yes we will

for good or ill.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

27. You're not trying hard enough. Vote half a dozen times, at least.

[TigressDem]

5. SAVE the Maps of Redistricting, so they don't disaapear.

Because if we go all out and get awareness of gerrymandering the REICH may try to remove the evidence.

Court Adjusted WI
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/politics/us-redistricting/wisconsin-redistricting-map/

MN is crazy RED
https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2022/politics/us-redistricting/minnesota-redistricting-map/

[GreenWave]

8. Other things polls may ignore

GOP voters upset about J6 and quitting the party.
GOP Covid deniers (losing about 500 people day still) I would bet over 90% red voters dead in those totals.

But back to your argument, the biggest bully is voter purges designed to crush the Blue.

[edhopper]

10. That is major

as Kemp showed it is a way to win. Also, fewer polling places, fewer machines in Dem districts. No drop boxes for mail ins....

[WarGamer]

9. Don't forget about the census...

3-4 seats pretty much automatically went GOP...

[iemanja]

11. They don't

and that’s probably why Republicans usually out-perform the polls.

[Groundhawg]

12. how do you measure that?

[edhopper]

17. We will get a good measure after November

but then it will be too late.

[Wanderlust988]

13. Gerrymandering doesn't matter for Senate or Gubernatorial races

And what election rigging are we exactly talking about? That sounds like MAGA terms.

[edhopper]

16. Closing polling places

throwing registered voters off of the rolls. Voter ID laws. Election "Police" (Florida) Giving State Legislatures the power to throw out votes... I could go on.

[LakeArenal]

25. Oh it does. State officials are responsible for voter suppression

So it does affect Federal votes.

[doc03]

20. One thing for sure our election process can never be

trusted again. Both parties are going to think they
we cheated from now on. That's how authoritarian
governments take power. Right out of the Putin playbook.

[edhopper]

23. that is true

but it is blatant and egregious on one side right now.

[Demsrule86]

24. We also have Roe, January 6th etc...the glass is half full. As the trajectory of polls shows.

[LakeArenal]

26. Never underestimate pissed off women.

We also have energized youth to at least register to vote.