Biden and Newsom: Slow Motion Switcheroo?

[TheProle]

"Look, my intention as I said to begin with is that I would run again," the president said. "But it's just an intention. But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/president-joe-biden-2024-election-60-minutes-2022-09-18/

“After this midterm election is over, he absolutely is going to announce that he is running for the presidency once Biden announces that he is not running,” a leading California fundraiser with close ties to the Newsom family told TheWrap. “No ifs, ands or buts. He will run if Biden does not.”

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/gavin-newsom-unequivocally-running-president-130000010.html

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Newsom's challenges to debate DeSantis, billboards in Texas, etc. all seem part of a concerted effort to raise his national profile, but how much of it is organic and how much is orchestrated?

Given the two quotes above, it may be time to come to terms with what a Biden retirement and a Newsom run may look like.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

1. No fucking way.

Don't push such BS.

[TheProle]

2. Thanks for your comment.

Though I would argue that I am not pushing anything. The quotes say what they say.

[Demsrule86]

8. why would you even post this? First of all, if Biden didn't run which would means we lose

our incumbent advantage which would be colossally stupid on our part, we could not run Newsom. He could never win the rustbelt which is essential in presidential elections. I hope Biden will run because just like last time, he is likely the only one that can win the states we need.

[TheProle]

11. I posted it for discussion. It's a discussion board.

Nothing I have said indicates that Biden shouldn't run, or that Newsom should.

I hope that Biden runs, too, but it's not heresy or anti-democratic to compare and contrast the two statements and explore the ramifications.

[Demsrule86]

29. Just a discussion...right. Well I pointed out how Biden is likely the only one who can win and

now I am trashing. I consider this divisive and we have a midterm coming. God knows we need to stick together. Have a nice discussion...really.

[TheProle]

31. Thank you.

I'm sorry your efforts to gatekeep were ineffective.

[Polybius]

45. You used to say he was definitely running

This is the first post I've seen where you imply that it's not set in stone. As for Newsom not being able to win, I really can't agree or disagree. If he ran against DeSantis, I honestly have no idea who would win.

[kcr]

35. Not pushing anything?

"Given the two quotes above, it may be time to come to terms with what a Biden retirement and a Newsom run may look like."

[TheProle]

37. I stand by that.

Given the election laws and proper windows of opportunity for President Biden to make a firm announcement, is it better to not consider the matter at all and have a 1968 clusterfuck all over again?

[kcr]

41. It's okay to stand by what you're pushing

But you're diefinitely pushing it.

[brush]

42. Priorities pls. Let's concentrate on the mid-terms above all.

This is premature.

[Effete Snob]

4. Wow, such a reasoned response

If Biden decides not to run, then who do you believe is positioning themselves for a run?

[Just A Box Of Rain]

9. Biden is going to run.

Stop this BS.

[Arazi]

30. Biden will run and win but

(And this is only hypothetical), it would be a 3way race between Harris, Newsome and Pritzker for the nomination. I can only hope they could come to an amicable agreement about who would get the top spot before any bruising fight in public.

All that said, we’re damn lucky with Joe and he’s the man until he says otherwise

[Tikki]

3. I am so proud to be a Democratic voter represented by both these fine human beings.

as opposed to somethings that aren't even close to human.

Tikki

[Mike_in_LA]

5. I would be happy if Biden ran again.

I'd be happy if Newsom ran if Biden did not run again.

Good to go for 2024 either way.

[Beautiful Disaster]

6. Biden is the best chance to win in 2024.

Democrats would be utterly stupid to give up the advantage that incumbency brings, especially if they turn around and nominate someone as unpopular as Newsom.

[Merlot]

7. Anomyous source: "a leading California fundraiser with...

...close ties to the Newsom family"

While I don't doubt that Newsom is planning to run for President, I think this statement is a little breathless. I expect Biden to announce he's not running closer to the end of third year of his term, and Newsom to be picking up speed at that point.

If Newsom were to announce he's running for president the same month as he's re-elected as governor it would be politically stupid. One thing Newsom isn't.

[Demsrule86]

12. You are wrong. Biden will run again. He knows the value of incumbency. And he understands

that if we lose the next election, we have likely lost our Republic. He can win the rustbelt states we must have...no one else could. And let me say Newsom has lost my vote in any primary-not that I planned to vote for him anyway, but I don't like his behavior of late.

[TheProle]

14. Interesting that you speak with more certainty of Biden's plan than does Biden.

[Just A Box Of Rain]

19. Not so.

The President said last night that elections laws complicate his announcing a 2024 run.

Besides, we have elections to fight and win RIGHT NOW. This is divisive and distracting BS.

[Demsrule86]

36. I live in Ohio. I also lived in Wisconsin and Michigan and Georgia to name a fews. Hubs worked

in autos...GM gypsies. I know the midwest is essential for a Democratic victory. And Biden is still the only one who can put together a winning coalition. We need the rustbelt. There is no other path. Biden knows this. Thus, he will run. Biden understands that our Republican is hanging on by a thread and we simply can't allow a GOP president to win in 2024... Did you know that only four incumbents have lost in 100 years? They are Hoover, Carter, Bush I, and Trump. Unless Biden's health fails, he will not fail us and leave us to deal with a fascist GOP dictatorship. And that is what we risk in 24.

[TheProle]

40. I hope that is the case.

But if it's not, some preparatory thought and planning might well be in order.

[Merlot]

16. I'm not wrong, only time will tell.

I didn't say Biden won't run again, I said if he doesn't he would announce it at a later date so as not to be a lame duck.

[Heather MC]

10. If Biden doesn't run, I certainly hope Kamala Harris Does

K.Harris 2024

[calguy]

20. I would like to see her make a strong run

But I don't see it in the cards.
For all her intelligence, courage, and skill, she doesn't have what it takes to garner national appeal. This was clearly demonstrated when she ran for president and got almost zero traction.
I hope I'm wrong, but I see her political career ending once her term as VP has ended. She'll go down in history as the first female vp, much like Geraldine Ferraro went down as the first female candidate.
I just don't see her on the national stage on own merits.

[Heather MC]

23. Nobody saw Joe biden as president until he was🤷🏾‍♀️

We shouldn't be treat Kamala like, oh well you're black woman, you got to be special as vice president, but that's it for you darling go back to the secretary pool now.🤷🏾?♀️

But certainly let's always back white men no matter what seems to be what America likes to do, doesn't it🙄

[Demsrule86]

26. She has to get elected. I don't doubt she would be a good president. Although, Biden is

the best in my lifetime in terms of getting stuff done. She won't win the rust belt...I posted a map of the must-win states.

[Heather MC]

43. So basically the rust belt is 2 races for a black female president, got it

Maybe we just run her, if she chooses to run and if Biden isn't running
And we allow the voters to decide if they're too racist for a black female president or not🤷🏾?♀️

People are either going to vote for the democratic candidate, or they don't we shouldn't, president, predecide who will or won't win an election.

I had my sincere doubts about Joe biding winning, and turns out he won more votes than any other person who ran for president in American history.
And he got those votes with kamala Harris on the ticket everyone understands that the vice president is a heart beat away from the presidency. The people have already spoken and said they will be OK with kamala Harris being president when they elected her as vice president under a man whose 81 years old🤷🏾?♀️

Not that I'm wishing anything bad to happen to president Biden of course not however let's face it at 81 Kamela is a lot closer to that heartbeat, than Joe Biden was, when he was Obama's vice president

[calguy]

48. I'm not saying anything about how we should treat her

I'm simply making an observation as it relates to how well she was received when she was a presidential candidate.
I don't wish to detract from her greatness in any way.
But reality is reality, and reality was not kind to her as a candidate.

[Demsrule86]

22. I read the posts here and elsewhere, and I wonder does anyone pay attention to what states we must

win? Neither Kamala Harris nor Newsom can win the presidency. They won't win Michigan or Wisconsin and very likely they won't win Pennsylvania. Hell, I am not sure they could win Virginia. Deciding who you will vote for in a primary isn't about if you like someone. It is about who can win the states needed for victory. All our candidates are good people and much better than any Republican. I suggest folks go and look 270 to win...and then think about candidates. The 24 election is probably the most important presidential election in history. It could be our last free election if we lost to the Republican fascists.

A winning map...


Now I have removed rust-belt states but left Virginia even though we lost a state-wide race for governor there recently.



https://www.270towin.com/

[calguy]

50. Your post reflects good politics common sense. Unless we run a moderate, we can't win the presidency

[kcr]

38. Same

I prefer her over Newsom. But it doesn't matter of course, because Biden will run again.

[Polybius]

46. I suspect the results will be similar to K.Harris 2020

I think Newsom would sweep the primaries.

[Heather MC]

47. Let's hope all the best decisions are made during the primary

And then we don't need to choose the best of the worst in the general lol

[JohnSJ]

13. Newsom is my Governor, and he is ok, however, I doubt he could win a general election for president

Also, as far as I am concerned by will be our nominee, unless he decides otherwise, and he has not changed that position

[FreeState]

33. Newsom is great

I love our governor and have no doubt he could win a national race should the opportunity present itself.

[Demsrule86]

39. He will not win the must have states in the rustbelt.

[Walleye]

15. I refuse to engage in this type of speculation. I leave the decision completely up to Joe Biden

When will the people finally understand that he actually knows what he’s doing. Including how to win elections

[TheProle]

18. Understood.

In defense of the thread, Biden went on perhaps the biggest news show there is and said these specific words:

"But is it a firm decision that I run again? That remains to be seen."

[Walleye]

21. No I completely understand people speculating. I'm just not sure it's good for our party

Right wingers will pounce on anything. For example the report that Ryan doesn’t want Biden campaigning in Ohio, big news over on Fox. I like what Joe said that he would come to anybody’s district and campaign, for them or against them, whichever would help them win

[Just A Box Of Rain]

25. Rather, it is clearly bad for the party.

[Demsrule86]

24. Midterm talk...doesn't want to make it about him.

[Bettie]

17. A. We can't give up the advantage of an incumbent president running.

B. Running a CA governor would not be a good idea.

C. Biden is doing a fine job. I say this as someone who did not choose him in the primary, I didn't expect him to be as great as he has been.

He knows how government works and is well-suited to work within it, which is a huge advantage right now.

[Tetrachloride]

27. I wish all the 2024 threads go away until AFTER the 2022 elections.

[TheProle]

28. I think you can hide them.

[Tetrachloride]

32. i wish the DU stop posting them.

I consider the 2024 threads as counterproductive to voting in Democrats in 2022.

[TheProle]

34. If the owners of the board prohibit discussion of '24 until after the mid-terms,

I will gladly oblige. I have seen no such prohibitions.

[luv2fly]

44. I find all the anti-speculation commentary amusing

We ARE capable of thinking and chewing gum at the same time. I mean, we aren't MAGAts after all.

[msfiddlestix]

49. who gives a flying eff, if it's orchestrated or "organic"? I don't Care, Do You? I want a Strong Dem

I want a strong Dem in the White House no matter who the eff it is.