Do you think there is a high risk of Poopin' using nukes?

[Stinky The Clown]

I think the risk is exceedingly low. It got lower still when China stepped back from him regarding Ukraine.

Could he use them? Of course he could. He has them and he controls them.

Will he? I see that as highly unlikely.

[Elessar Zappa]

1. I think it's unlikely but possible.

I really don’t know his mental state so I don’t know if he has a rational mind.

[dalton99a]

2. If he does, Ukraine should be given nuclear weapons to retaliate and vaporize Moscow

[former9thward]

4. And cities of whoever gave the weapons would be vaporized.

Ok with that?

[dameatball]

11. No. Besides, if nuclear war was inevitable, I doubt anyone would bother with Ukrainian middlemen.

Its getting kinda Tom Clancy territory now. Could possibly happen, but I doubt it. It does suck that the possibility exists, probably to the greatest extent since the early 60's.

Scary part is Putin may be nuts. I think Kruschev was a bully, but basically rational.

[murielm99]

3. It might be that

his own people would stop him.

It is possible that the stuff he has would not work. Oligarchs have looted. Russians make a lot of defective stuff in the first place.

[former9thward]

5. Russians give our astronauts rides to the space station.

Because we couldn't do it. They were first into space. So they are not defective in building rockets and using technology.

[honest.abe]

6. I think he is seriously considering it.

He is a madman and in a very bad situation, desperate, probably seriously ill and would not have much to lose. My thinking is that the generals will talk him out of it. But he might insist and force them by giving them the option of jumping out a window.

[GenXer47]

15. I worry that his victimhood posture

is going to make their red line, Russia's very existence threatened, a self-fulfilling prophecy.
The existence of "Russia" means way more than their physical existence. If the country breaks apart, that qualifies too.
Trump and Putin shit in their own beds, and then rage against the housekeeper.
Very scary times, my friends!

[maxsolomon]

7. Possible but unlikely.

It's a threat meant to back the US and NATO off.

This entire war is based on Putin's paranoia - as he's backed into a corner, he'll get crazier and crazier.

[dclarston13]

8. I think in the short term the risk is low

When the conscripts get mowed down and he is out of options I think the game changes. I have confidence that our intel services are on this issue. My guess is pooty falls out of a window, or gets lead poisoning, before the end of winter.

[markie]

9. yup

anything is possible

[Irish_Dem]

10. I don't think Biden would be making public warning statements for low probability events.

And sending US diplomats to Moscow to warn Putin personally.

Biden has intel of course.

But Putin is psychologically capable of using nukes.

[honest.abe]

12. Yep. Exactly.

No doubt we, the US Govt and US military and US intelligence, are all taking this seriously.

I think that urgent meeting with members of Congress and the CIA director in a secure room a couple of weeks ago was about this very issue.

[Irish_Dem]

14. I agree. CIA has intel saying that Putin is serious about using nukes.

And the military psych profilers know Putin is fully capable of using them.

Hence the US public statements and probably behind the scenes activity.

Putin is desperate to win this war and will do anything for victory.

[Torchlight]

13. I think he's going into a wait-and-see mode between now and next summer

dependent on (what I think will be) the success or failure of a new spring offensive next year when this round of mobilization has trained and fielded its numbers.

And then, in April or May, Putin throws the new troops into a greater strategy of attrition (as decisive strikes have been largely ineffectual to date) hoping Ukraine cries uncle before his own military does.

If by summer, Putin has still not gotten anywhere, that's when I think the threat oif nuclear weapons will be at its greatest.

[Bayard]

16. In his own way, Putin is as delusional as trump

Neither one can accept reality until it whacks them upside the head. Then, they're desperate to defend their positions, and will go down fighting. TFG calls out his MAGAt army. I can see Putin using nukes as a last resort to losing.