The Demographic Drought - Baby Boomers are Retiring in record numbers

[Yavin4]

The Baby Boomer retirement wave is what's driving the labor shortages. This was happening before Covid. My theory is that the Fed is deliberately trying to destroy asset values (401Ks, housing, etc.) in order to push boomers back into the labor force.

[yankee87]

1. Retirement age

I’m at the end of the baby boomers and I’m just about to retire. There is no reason to work until you’re dead. Try to enjoy whatever life you have left to live.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

3. I'm at the front end of the baby boomer generation

and I enjoy the work I do, but i will eventually retire and, like you said, enjoy what life I have left to live.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

2. Not this baby boomer,

I'm 75, in excellent health and still contributing to the American economy and will keep on going until I decide not to keep on going.

[Yavin4]

4. You're lucky that you have work that you can still do physically.

A lot of folks cannot keep working into their 70s.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

5. All my years in the Marines kept me in excellent physical health,

I guess I'm lucky in that regard, unlike, as you say, many of my generation.

[Celerity]

6. I would like to see an updated version, this one is almost 13 months old and doesn't take into

account the massive inflation and the stock market declines.

Interesting video though, and it really puts paid to the incorrect posturing I see from some who claim that the US and the rest of the advanced world need to have LESS children, when in reality they almost all are far far below replacement level in terms of births. The explosive growth is in Africa mainly (and even there it is coming down overall, but still far too high, like Nigeria for instance, which could, in some models, have 1 BILLION or even more people by 2100) the Middle East/Central Asia (the 'Stans' especially), plus the SE Pacific Island area, Mexico, and finally the north western part of South America.

[Celerity]

7. new (August 2022) shorter video from the same YT channel: Global Demographic Drought

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. I think you're overthinking it

Inflation is at a 40 year high, and interest rates were at record low. Rates had to rise to cool inflation (despite gouging by corporations). Higher mortgage rates will make homes more affordable for the younger generations.

The market has been volatile because it is driven by emotions, especially fear. Come back to this thread in a year and see how things are.

My retirement portfolio and 457 account survived the crashes of ‘87, 2001, 2008, and 2020, and it will survive this as well. I retired in 2019 just before COVID hit, and money is the last thing I would worry about.

Now is the time to buy investments, while they are on sale (talk to an advisor).

If Powell and the Fed are guilty of anything, it’s waiting too long to start raising rates (part of that is on Yellen as well, who was chair before Powell). Nobody at the Fed is deliberately trying to force seniors back to work.

Note: 1957 was the peak year of the baby boom; everyone born in 1957 turns 65 this year, and is eligible for Medicare. That’s my theory why so many are retiring this year.

[Yavin4]

10. The Fed's decisions gives the Republican a huge advantage in 2024. n/t

[Fiendish Thingy]

26. I'm not seeing that

By 2024, the economy and markets could already have recovered from a short and shallow recession in 2023.

The housing market is in need of a significant correction, and rising rates will help nudge that along. That may piss off some homeowners who were counting on cashing in their equity, but will likely please others, who will benefit from lower property taxes, and younger adults who will find housing more affordable (higher interest rates put downward pressure on prices, as buyers can’t qualify for loans at current prices).

I have seen no evidence that the Fed is deliberately trying to tank the economy for political reasons.

None.

[Celerity]

16. That has little to do with the subject of the video tbh, FT.

No ill will intended, I always enjoy your posts.

[Fiendish Thingy]

27. I was responding to the OP, not the video. Nt

[Celerity]

29. yes, I see this now, I focused on the video

[Old Crank]

35. I know more than a few

Who waited until they were 65 to get out of the rat race. Plus several who are hanging on trying to get to 65 for the Medicare benefits. Not very many people can afford to quit a job that has employer sponsored insurance and go it alone even for a couple of years.

Remember every last republican elected official and aspirant wants to kill off those major programs and impoverish millions.

[brooklynite]

9. And is that theory based on any actual evidence?

Sorry to disappoint you, but my wife and I are both boomers who retired with investment accounts that will keep us comfortable for decades.

I remember when "The Fed" was a target of both righties (Ron Paul) and lefties (Bernie Sanders).

[ProfessorGAC]

15. Same Boat

Our income actually went up upon retirement.
And, the guy who took over my job got a 20% increase over what he was making.
That would not have a negative economic impact, so unlikely to be a driver of the global woes.
I'm sure we're not the only ones to whom this would apply.

[Celerity]

18. Did you even watch the video? It sure sounds like you didn't. You're erecting an straw man as well.

with the Fed, as the Fed was barely mentioned (if at all) in the video, and certainly was not remotely a central subject.

[brooklynite]

20. I didn't watch the video, and I wasn't responding to it...

I was responding to the OP's assertion that the underlying cause was intentional policy by the Fed to "ruin" people's investments.

[Celerity]

23. Fair enough, I focused on the video, which is where the disconnect came in.

[NBachers]

11. This 1949 baby's still physically working full time, and will continue for the foreseeable future.

If I had lotsa money and could quit, I would, but my motto is, "Keep moving, keep living."

[Roisin Ni Fiachra]

12. Retirement is a great gig. I highly recommend it. nt

[ProfessorGAC]

14. Same Here

I also think there's some unrealistic expectations on the part of employers at play, here.
They whine about a labor squeeze, but expect a 25 year old on the job a week to perform at the level a retiree with 40 years that could do the job with their eyes closed.
They are too impatient & worry about how a 1% productivity loss affects THIS quarter's results. If they would take a long view, they're likely be just fine.
So, they get gun shy, don't hire & train replacement workers fast enough, then whine about a labor shortage.

[Chainfire]

31. Me too!

All of my friends who told me that I would get bored and go back to work after six months were full of shit! I worked hard and tried to be the most productive employee around, but It was from a sense of duty, and that I considered it a competition, not because I loved it.

Only extreme poverty, or a pointed gun, would drag me back into the work force.

[area51]

13. It's unfortunate that these jobs aren't being freed up

when boomers retire. There's a scarcity of good-paying jobs with healthcare bennies.

[kentuck]

17. The problem is, as I see it...

That there are more Baby Boomers retiring than there are young workers to take their place.

That's why there are 11 million open jobs in this country right now, in my opinion.

The country could be more prosperous if there was a more open immigration policy, in my opinion.

[Yavin4]

24. Exactly. And the shortage will only worsen.

In 7 years, ALL boomers will have reached retirement age.

[Celerity]

19. I am frustrated at the disconnect between some of the comments and what they seem to think

the subject and points of the video were.

They apparently did not watch the video at all.

[yardwork]

25. I think they're responding to the OP's comment that the fed is deliberately doing such and so...

[Celerity]

30. yes, I seem to be one of the few who focused on the video, my bad

[uponit7771]

21. K&R, ... and the excess death count from covid is nearly 200,000

[onethatcares]

28. early 70s here, been retired 5 years now after

blowing out my knees, tearing my right bicep and left rotator cuff. I really don't feel like working to keep the economy going at this point.

I've worked since I was 13, mostly in the trades and all that retirement money I was going to save got eaten up everytime the richie riches needed an excuse to take more so I mainly live on SS and minor sidework money. (yeah, it's claimed). My house, car and truck are paid for and I have minor credit card debt.

My worries are having a medical problem that entails removing the rest of my wallet and leaving me truly broke.

[Chainfire]

32. I am living off of SS and a very tiny pension.

I paid off everything I owed before I retired, I don't fritter a lot away, so money goes into savings every month. I am probably keeping up with, or gaining a bit on inflation, and am not suffering yet. The cost of food may begin to cut into that. It is difficult for me to believe how fast and how far food prices have, and continue, to rise. I can turn off the lights if I have to, but I continue to have to eat.

I have been eyeing my beloved 70 pound dog as a source of protein if necessary. (please don't tell her, she would pout all day)

[onethatcares]

33. yes, eating helps pay for the rest.......alot

I'm pretty frugal too. I can't understand the rise in food prices either.

insurances are getting to me. Homeowners went up $1200.00/yr this year, car/truck insurance comes up in November and I'll be dropping some and shopping the rest.

[Old Crank]

36. Just reading about food issues

This was from May. Russia and the Ukraine total about 25% of all world wheat exports.
The Ukraine provides a huge percentage of sunflower oil to the world markets. Their exports declined to almost nothing because of the sea lane issue.
Costs for containers and shipping them are still high.
Oil costs affect fertilizer costs since oil/natural gas is a feedstock for fertilizer.

Just a hint as to price hikes for food. These don't even count corporate greed.

[peggysue2]

34. Interesting!

Goes a long way in explaining the right-wing's push for women to have as many babies as possible (even those they can't or don't want to carry) or RonJon's proposal to force retirees back into the work force. But, of course, these are surface solutions that don't speak to the long-term ramifications. It also underscores the self-wounding of immigration limitation to insane levels.

Think millennials get short shrift in the analyses, the idea that their generation isn't as interested in work. Seems to me they aren't interested in shitty work situations, the soul-eating jobs of the past. That resolution is up to a corporate mind-shift, a turn-around in the easy-to-fire and replace attitude or cutting your most skilled workers for workers who will take less pay, benefits and more abuse. Because they must.

As for the Boomer Generation? Yes, we're aging out, particularly in jobs requiring physical strength and wellness. That should not be a surprise nor the transfer stats of manufacturing, mining, construction workers to retail positions. The work is less physically demanding. Same thing for full-time work to part-time work. As to the opioid disaster? We can thank the Sackler family and depraved greed for that. The solutions are much harder to find than the deliberate addiction assault on a vulnerable population.

The GOP translation of all this? Laziness, takers got to take and drug addicts aren't worth the trouble.

This is another instance where we can see the work force problem is not limited to the US. It's a world-wide phenomenon. We're linked to the world whether we like it or not.