Republican Lead in Race for House Control Shrinks Again

[applegrove]

Republican Lead in Race for House Control Shrinks Again

September 25, 2022 at 5:55 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 83 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/09/25/republican-lead-in-race-for-house-control-shrinks-again/

"SNIP.......

A new CBS News Battleground Poll finds the Republicans still have a lead in the race for control of the House, but “it keeps shrinking.”

“While they’re still in a very good position to capture a House majority, that majority looks narrower today than it ever has, having ticked down for the second straight month to 223 seats in our model estimate. Republicans were at 226 in August and 230 in July.”

.......SNIP"

[Walleye]

1. We got the momentum, let's do it

[Lunabell]

2. Yes!!

And it will keep shrinking. Michael Moore, who accurately and emphatically predicted tfg's win in 2016, says we will win in a landslide. And he's no fan of Democrats, but I think he's on to someting.

[SoCalDavidS]

3. Michael Moore Is No Fan Of Democrats?

That's news to me. He's just critical of them when he feels they're screwing up. He correctly predicted that TFG would win in 2016, and not because he wanted that outcome. He simply saw it as eventual.

He also said that Joe would win in 2020, and he certainly seemed glad about that. Not the behavior of someone who is no fan of Democrats.

[Demsrule86]

8. No, he has never been a fan of Democrats.

[SlimJimmy]

4. Again with the "registered" voters.

Only pay attention to polls using "likely" voters. Half of "registered" voters don't vote.

"... with a nationally representative sample of 2,253 registered voters interviewed between September 21-23, 2022."

[thesquanderer]

9. re: "Half of 'registered' voters don't vote."

I think we may well see higher than usual turnout this time.

Also, I suspect that the registered voters who are not inclined to vote in midterms are also ones who are less likely to bother taking the time to answer a survey about how they expect to vote in the midterms.

So while I see your point, I wouldn't dismiss the value of a poll like this entirely, either.

[SlimJimmy]

19. Thanks for the reply.

I am in complete agreement that voter turnout might be higher than normal for a midterm, I also know that the folks on DU generally think that the abortion issue will drive more Democrats to the polls this year. So, I looked at a recent CNN article using "registered" voters. This is what they thought. As you can see, abortion rates fairly low on the scale of priorities. And as we probably already knew, the economy and inflation rate the highest (20% and 15% respectively). If that's truly the case, and it still looks that way, then the repukes have a slight edge on us. Now is the time to GOTV and drive the Democratic voters to the polls.

Even fewer voters, however, call abortion their No. 1 concern. In the New York Times/Siena poll, just 5% of registered voters name abortion or women’s rights as the single most important problem facing the country, ranking it behind the economy (20%), inflation (15%), democracy and political divisions (11%) and gun policies (10%).

https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/16/politics/top-issue-polls-abortion/index.html

[ThoughtCriminal]

5. I think the polls are still underestimating anti-GOP voting

Basing likely voters based on previous mid-terms is not going to work this cycle.

Women especially, are going to turn out in record numbers for this mid-term and punish the Republicans at every level.

I predict they will not only fail to get control of the House, they will have a net loss.

[Sky Jewels]

6. And young people will come out beyond their usual numbers.

They are rightly furious about Dobbs, guns, and climate change.

[Elessar Zappa]

13. Plus,

many young people are thrilled that $10,000 was knocked off their student loan debt.

[Sky Jewels]

16. Yes!

That made a huge difference.

[Hermit-The-Prog]

7. We cannot allow the American Taliban to take over. GOTV.

Roe, Roe, Roe your vote
against theocracy!
Republicans revoke your rights
and kill democracy!

THESE are the races that will determine control of the House of Representatives:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217192221

Stick 'em up for a blue wave: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217078977

[ck4829]

10. Every vote will count, it may be down to the individual.

Last edited Mon Oct 3, 2022, 09:40 AM - Edit history (1)

Christian Nation

[lees1975]

11. This is CBS which leans conservative.

Other polls are already at the point of calling the house a tossup and giving high odds to the Democrats increasing their senate majority.

[Elessar Zappa]

12. 223.

We need to keep what, 221?

[WinstonSmith4740]

14. I still go back to 1998 on this.

ALL the pundits we're predicting a bloodbath. A few even predicted as much as an 80 House seat advantage for the rethugs, who already held a majority in both chambers. They kept beating the Lewinsky scandal. But then, as now, they over reached on that. Most Americans thought so too, and we picked up eight seats in the House, and a couple in the Senate. We didn't take control, but it caused Newt Gingrich to resign.

I think not only have the republicans under estimated women's anger, so have the pundits.

[LiberalFighter]

15. Plan is needed to discourage Republicans from voting.

Targeting insurrectionist supporters.
White nationalists. -- tell them their vote only counts if they wear a white hood without holes for their eyes and a rope around their neck
Evangelicals -- tell them God doesn't want them to vote

[lees1975]

17. Trump is a liability.

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2022/09/the-reality-for-republican-candidates.html

[SouthernDem4ever]

18. Holy shit Really? Repugs are leading in the race for the house?

WTF is wrong with this country. You don't have to answer, it's a rhetorical rant. I am so sick of voters thinking voting for repugs is even remotely good for this country, our democracy and our morale. They suck more than I ever thought possible in my lifetime. And WTF is with this impeaching Biden shit??? Don't you have to break a law for that? Trump broke law after law and those assholes in the senate let his fat orange ass sit there and continue to screw this country, just as he is doing now. This place is absolutely for shit. I hope these moron voters wake up sometime soon or it's over.