Why Iran's Protests May Be Different This Time

[applegrove]

Why Iran’s Protests May Be Different This Time

September 26, 2022 at 12:00 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 56 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2022/09/26/why-irans-protests-may-be-different-this-time/

"SNIP......

New York Times: “Previous protests — over fraudulent elections in 2009, economic mismanagement in 2017 and fuel price hikes in 2019 — have been ruthlessly suppressed by Iran’s security forces, and this time may be no different. Yet, for the first time since the founding of the Iranian Republic, the current uprising has united rich Iranians descending from high-rise apartments in northern Tehran with struggling bazaar vendors in its working-class south, and Kurds, Turks and other ethnic minorities with members of the Fars majority.”

“The sheer diversity of the protesters reflects the breadth of Iranians’ grievances, analysts say, from a sickly economy and in-your-face corruption, to political repression and social restrictions — frustrations Iran’s government has repeatedly tried, and failed, to quash.”

......SNIP"

[Just A Box Of Rain]

1. Another (major) factor is the ill-health of Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, who is 83

and reported gravely ill (meaning, he is expect to die in the near term).

So there is a succession crisis brewing. Across segments of Iranian society that succession is seen a crucial to what happens next in Iran.

So these protests combine a righteous outrage over the death of Mahsa Amini with the awareness that a succession could happen at any moment. This is a potent combination.

[JustAnotherGen]

2. When people (women in particular)

have had enough - amazing things can happen.

The violence against these peaceful protestors is not a good look.

See no difference between the police there, and Bull Connor.

[Ford_Prefect]

3. This isn't going away. The purity police broke it and they're gonna own it one way or another.

I don't know how much or how rapidly Iran can change. But everyone I've read so far says that this is as big as the initiating events of the revolution. There isn't a central leadership to guide it but the same energy is everywhere.

[no_hypocrisy]

4. Reminds me of how SAVAK went too far and the next thing you knew,

the Shah was exiled.

[Ford_Prefect]

10. Yeah, but that was a movement with leadership and organized over a long period.

The Student Rebellion of 1979 was as much a private army managed by Khomeini as it was a root level insurrection. It was the most notably visible aspect, to the western press at least, of the Islamic Revolution that unseated the Shah.

I agree today's public outcry appears to draw on the same energy and widespread outrage against oppressive rule. However the conservative hierarchy that runs the state is based on Iran's historical Islamic culture and is unlikely to be overturned in quite the same way as the Shah was.

IMO such a powerful reaction could lead to more democratic changes though. A revolutionary change would need the backing of Iran's military and that is an unlikely occurrence in the present international climate.

[PatrickforB]

5. So, the Iranians may get rid of their Ayatollah's at the same time Sweden, England, Italy and

the USA impose our own respective sets of religious dominionists.

Funny how that works.

[Lonestarblue]

6. Imagine what Iran might be like today if Alan Dulles hadn't organized a CIA operation in 1953 to

remove Iran’s democratically elected head of state. The US then installed the brutal Shah of Iran, and when he was finally overthrown, powerful clerics established an only slightly less repressive regime. Without US interference, solely to protect US and British profits, Iran might be a democracy today instead of a repressive religious terrorist state.

[Mozeltov Cocktail]

7. I think of that literally anytime Iran is in the news...

It gives you an idea how much control big business has in our government, and has had for decades.

[maxsolomon]

8. I'm rooting for Iran

It could be such a great place to visit, except for the Theocracy.

It may not be this time, but eventually the Mullahs won't be able to maintain control over a populace getting younger and younger and larger and larger.

[Elessar Zappa]

9. I had a friend who visited there a few years ago

and he said it was the one Middle Eastern country where he felt completely safe. I was surprised but granted, I’m not very familiar with Iran.