What is this Biden's approval rating has ticked back down to 39% I am

[doc03]

hearing on MSNBC. The most recent polls on 538 have him at 42.7% with the lowest at 41% and 48% from one poll.

[Ferrets are Cool]

1. They can pull any number from their corporate asses.

It only matters to those who care about such things.

[doc03]

6. I see two polls last week on 538 one from ABC/WP and the other Ipsos at 39% all the others are

in the 40s as high as 48%. I guess they just pick the lowest poll in the last month from IPsos to report.

[PortTack]

2. I pay ZERO attention to the polls anymore. RW media is the driver

[LenaBaby61]

5. REALLY THIS 👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻👆🏻

[Deuce]

3. When i heard that it was "WTF", "BULLSHIT", but what do i know!

[Elessar Zappa]

4. There's also new polls

that show Republicans are only expected to win 223 seats in the House, down from 230. Momentum is on our side, I’ll focus on that. If Biden’s approval is still low in 2024, that is when I’ll worry.

[Indykatie]

7. TV and Media Often Over React to A Specific Poll Without Researching Pollster Methods

There are a bunch of crappy polls being released by GOP aligned firms right now. I saw one using a gender split of 49% women voters in a state where women were at least 53% in 18. There isn't a state in the country where women will only be 49% of the voters in Nov. By playing with various likely voter scenarios Pollsters can generate rosy GOP results and really bad Dem results. Here are a few things I've learned in my 30+ years of watching campaigns and elections. I hope these pointers help with some of the poll anxiety some may experience.

1. Ignore any poll that doesn't release the cross tabs for the poll like Trafalgar. You will find they have a good rating on 538 but that's because 538 doesn't include any of their polls until we get close to the election. They have a history of doing sh*tty polls until the last 30 days or so of the cycle and then start releasing Polls that are in line with reality.
2. Ignore all internal polls.
3. Ignore all polls that are funded by GOP PACs
3A. Ignore all polls done by consulting firms and others who aren't in the polling business.
4. Assume all Likely Voter (LV) polls will UNDERSTATE Dem strength because of Roevember and the fact that the millions of new voters or first time voters will be excluded in the LV modelling. A common LV screen pollsters use is whether the person voted in the last General and/or the last Primary.
5. Follow Tom Bonier who is tracking new registrations in each State. Women and young people are breaking records for voter registration in some states. Remember KS?
Finally, remember that Dems have over-performed in every single election held in 2022. We didn't win some of the Red district races but the Dem results in 2022 showed a movement of 5 -7 points towards Dems. With that kind of movement Dems can win some House seats that have been classified as "lean GOP". I predict that Dems will win some R+ 4 or +5 House districts.

[wiggs]

9. media is bleating about inflation 24/7...but they don't ask what goprs would do

about this global issue at the moment.

it is largely out of the hands of potus, but you won't hear that much.

[BumRushDaShow]

11. I saw a breaking news banner earlier this afternoon

with a business headline that was bemoaning the "strong dollar" due to the drop in the British pound today.

Never thought I'd see the day when someone whined that our own currency was not only holding its own, but actually had something of value enough that other countries were relying on it in the middle of a global economic calamity.

[Indykatie]

10. TV and Media Often Over React to A Specific Poll Without Researching Pollster Methods

There are a bunch of crappy polls being released by GOP aligned firms right now. I saw one using a gender split of 49% women voters in a state where women were at least 53% in 18. There isn't a state in the country where women will only be 49% of the voters in Nov. By playing with various likely voter scenarios Pollsters can generate rosy GOP results and really bad Dem results. Here are a few things I've learned in my 30+ years of watching campaigns and elections. I hope these pointers help with some of the poll anxiety some may experience.

1. Ignore any poll that doesn't release the cross tabs for the poll like Trafalgar. You will find they have a good rating on 538 but that's because 538 doesn't include any of their polls until we get close to the election. They have a history of doing sh*tty polls until the last 30 days or so of the cycle and then start releasing Polls that are in line with reality.
2. Ignore all internal polls.
3. Ignore all polls that are funded by GOP PACs
3A. Ignore all polls done by consulting firms and others who aren't in the polling business.
4. Assume all Likely Voter (LV) polls will UNDERSTATE Dem strength because of Roevember and the fact that the millions of new voters or first time voters will be excluded in the LV modelling. A common LV screen pollsters use is whether the person voted in the last General and/or the last Primary.
5. Follow Tom Bonier who is tracking new registrations in each State. Women and young people are breaking records for voter registration in some states. Remember KS?
Finally, remember that Dems have over-performed in every single election held in 2022. We didn't win some of the Red district races but the Dem results in 2022 showed a movement of 5 -7 points towards Dems. With that kind of movement Dems can win some House seats that have been classified as "lean GOP". I predict that Dems will win some R+ 4 or +5 House districts.

[dwayneb]

12. Real Clear Politics has the best approach

It's an average of many polls. Far more reliable than considering any specific individual poll.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html

All the polls going into the average (more than 100)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president-biden-job-approval-7320.html#polls

Right now here on 9/26 it's about 43% approval which is a rise from 37% on July 21 and has stayed pretty constant for a couple of weeks.

[Indykatie]

13. Be Careful With RCP - They Exclude Some Pro Dem Polls From Their Averages Arbitrarily

RCP is a Republican outfit so there's that to worry about two. I like 538 because it offers you 3 different views of the races based on polling only and 2 other versions that includes other criteria like the fundraising strength of a candidate. Take your pick of the Lite, Classic or Deluxe versions of their analyses.