I think when the hurricane turned right it fooled a lot of people.

[fightforfreedom]

For days it looked like the hurricane was heading for Tampa where my son lives. People south of there may have thought they would be on the outer edge of the storm and decided to ride it out. When it turned right it may have been too late for them to leave.

[MaryMagdaline]

1. Deja vu for Hurricane Charlie in 2004

Supposed to hit Tampa - hit Punta Gorda hard.

[Lochloosa]

4. Right turn and went from a Cat 2 to a Cat 4 overnight.

[Emile]

2. It really fooled Trump, he predicted it would hit California.

Sarcasm

[EYESORE 9001]

10. Between his amazing mental imagination powers and his magic sharpie

I’m surprised it didn’t.

Also sarcasm.

[NCDem47]

3. My thoughts too.

Many, many stubborn and "know-it-all" types who thought they could skate by in Naples/Ft. Myers because it was Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay, Tampa Bay for days. Even though they had evac orders in SW Fla, they knew more than the pros.

[LisaL]

7. They were told its going to Tampa.

By those pros.

[NCDem47]

9. But there was always a cone

On Tuesday, the message was sent out that the Gulf coast from Marco Island to just north of Tampa Bay was at risk.

I guess the importance of staying close to information and keeping nimble is stressed here. If you're told by officials in ANY county to do mandatory evacuation. Do it. I realize some can't or won't do it for a host of reasons.

[yardwork]

16. I'm up in NC watching closely and the forecasts I saw were always uncertain.

I don't know what local FL stations were saying, but none of the national weather reports I checked indicated that the path was certain. Maybe people heard what they wanted to hear.

Hurricanes change course abruptly, this one was especially hard to predict, and it's not over yet.

[fightforfreedom]

8. What I don't understand is the people that live on the coastline who stayed.

People were warned for days there would be a large storm surge all along the coast. You cannot ride out a 8ft storm surge unless you live on the upper floors of an apt complex, etc.

[sir pball]

5. It fooled the forecasters, which in turn caught a lot of people out.

My father lives more or less in Fort Myers Beach (Shell Point Retirement Community, I've seen it mentioned on here). He initially evacuated on Sunday to a friend's house just a few miles inland, based on the surge forecasts…then they all moved farther inland Tuesday morning as the evacuation orders changed…and finally headed even further inland very early Wednesday as the forecast got even worse.

It's hard to make a good decision when the forecast goes from 100mph/5' surge to 155mph/18' surge overnight.

[yardwork]

17. I don't think they were fooled. The ones I saw said they didn't know.

Over and over I read and watched reports saying that this storm was frustrating to predict. The models were all over the place. Maybe people don't understand what the models mean.

In any case, it sounds like your dad handled it well. I'm glad he's safe.

These big unpredictable storms are going to become more frequent.

[LisaL]

6. Hurricane's track doesn't shift.

It goes where it goes. We just can't predict it well.

[OneBlueDotS-Carolina]

11. TV forecasters....

There are some very good climate scientists. Most were saying we have no idea where Ian is going with any kind of certainty. The TV forecasters take all the spaghetti models & pick something in the middle. Then they spend a day or so trying to sound like some kind of expert. Chad Myers of CNN is a good example of this phenomenon. Find out where the storm chasers are heading, if it's your town, get out of Dodge.

[kcr]

12. The forecast cone doesn't help

I wish I could remember where I saw it, but I read an article about how the cone tends to give a false sense of safety because people assume if they aren't literally within the cone, it means they won't be affected. It predicts where the center of the storm may go, but doesn't represent the potential areas of impact.

[Leith]

14. That's what I thought

- that it was where the effects would be greatest. Sure, there may be wild thunderstorms just outside the cone, but that's nothing to a place like Florida.

I like the various models of different (schools? government agencies? experts? ) with their predictions shown as lines of different colors. That tells me that different experts predict the same phenomenon, but their results are scattered around so nobody is sure of the place that will be hit. Everyone near a line should be ready.

[yardwork]

18. I've noticed that too!

[Chainfire]

13. There can be a lot of reasons why people don't evacuate.

None of them look good in the rearview mirror. A lot of people have nowhere to go, no way to get there and couldn't fund a night in a motel on a dare. Others, who have lived through hurricanes just don't believe that it will be as bad as people are telling them. And then you got the people who, want to exercise their machismo and look forward to the excitement. I like the ones who claim that they are staying to "protect" their homes. I guess that they plan to run out, grab a latter, and try to stay ahead of the storm ripping off their shingles. When someone says that, look for one of the other excuses behind the claim.

Rational people heed the warnings and act accordingly. Florida has a lot of people who do not reach the definition or rational.

[llmart]

15. +1

I heard one guy being interviewed who had got in his car trying to get to his boat to save it and he had to turn back. How stupid is that? Your freakin' boat is more important than your life?

I lived in N. Caroline during Hugo and I was inland. Back then the technology wasn't as good in predicting a path. I had no idea we would get hit with the effects of it. We were without power for two weeks. I never want to live through that again.

[yardwork]

19. Yiu must have been in Charlotte?

We had friends evacuate from a beach vacation, and they got hit when they got home! Charleston was hit badly, too.

[llmart]

21. Yes, I was.

I lived there for about ten years. Loved it and miss it.

[obamanut2012]

20. Denis Phillips and others said for days it would be south

People to to quit watching TWC and local hyper meterologists. This was almost dead on to the Euro.