Are early voting numbers predictive of anything?

[Dr. Jack]

This is the first election in a long time where I feel like I really don't know what is happening or where things are headed. The polls are somewhat anemic for the Democrats and are pointing to very close results for both chambers of Congress. That's kind of what I assume will be the results and since polls the last few cycles have underestimated the Republicans a bit, I'm a bit pessimistic when looking at polls.

But then I see the special election results over the summer where the Democrats over performed their polls by a shocking degree. And there are reports of massive early voting turnout. These things are giving me some pause and make me wonder if the polls are significantly underestimating the Dems. However, I've also been here before. We are all susceptible to grasping at straws before an election in an effort to show ourselves that things might not be as bad as they look. I remember in 2016 seeing reports that there was a high level of interest in voting among Democratic constituents in Florida and people saying that was proof that Trump would lose the election badly. That clearly didn't happen. And I think we all remember the mirage that was a Blue Texas in 2020.

So today it's "look at these early voting numbers! Ignore the polls! Blue wave incoming!" among many Dems online. But does that actually prove anything? Is that actually a sign of "oh shit, something big is happening" or are people just deluding themselves by finding one piece of seemingly good news that is actually meaningless?

[Amishman]

1. only slightly, recent years have been subject to such change in voting patterns

Recent years are not a good frame of reference due to the swings in how people are voting.

The only value I see in them is where there are radical changes from recent years.

FL is a good example, early voting is way down compared to other years. Does this mean we should panic? No, we don't know what it means. But the value we can find is that things are happening differently - which means the models that pollsters use to normalize data might also be inaccurate as they would also be based on prior trends and activity.

Changes in early voting just mean that state probably has more uncertainty.

[Native]

5. Early voting in Florida doesn't start at the polls until tomorrow.

I typically mail in my ballot, but this year I'm voting early in person. Even though we can track the status of our mail-in ballots, each election cycle I get more and more worried about the integrity of the process in our county.

[Meadowoak]

9. +1

[Demsrule86]

6. The hurricane no doubt is part of the reason that the early voting in Florida is down...and

DeathSantis has kept early voting sites in Democratic areas closed.

[Amishman]

12. Those are really good points, thanks!

I think my main point still holds, where early voting is way off, there is more uncertainty.

[Demsrule86]

2. The polls don't account for the Roe vote. And we saw with Kansas, New York 19 and other specials

how wrong the polls are...the large number of voters is encouraging and I believe means that people are 'Roeing' their vote. Time will tell. But I will add, I tire of the doom and gloom. The media is not on our side. But yesterday, we had a very good CNN poll. Did you even notice?

[Eyeball_Kid]

3. Perhaps it's my own fantasy, but I see the increased voter turnout as a reaction to

the Dobbs decision and violence within the GOP that is turning voters away from them, Trump's undeniable lawlessness, and a defiant reaction to the Trumpers' voter intimidation efforts. I saw footage of the long early voting lines in Georgia, and all of that came into focus.

[EarlG]

4. I've decided to go full on zen for this election cycle :)

Like you, I feel like I used to have a pretty good handle on what was going on in the world of politics, but since 2016 I've been constantly baffled about where things are headed. Polling seems broken these days, with pollsters constantly shifting their methodologies to account for quirks in previous election cycles, only to find that they don't apply to new quirks in the next election cycle. Is there really a GOP surge? Did the post-Roe summer special election results mean anything in the long term?

I don't know!

I do know that if I grab on to any little piece of good data and ignore any piece of bad data, I'm just setting myself up for trouble. So I've decided that the simplest thing to do is stay away from polling, focus on doing what can be done to get out the vote, hope for the best, and be prepared for the worst.

[Dr. Jack]

7. I'm less doom and gloom that many

I see a lot of people saying that if the Republicans win this year that America will be dead and we will transform into a fascist dictatorship and no one will be able to stop it. I don't think things are that bad but we are in an era where white supremacy has taken hold again, like the 1960s, 1920s, 1880s, etc. I think we will overcome it, as we have before, but the sooner the better. A Republican victory this year will just prolong this klan nonsense and the sooner we can beat it back down the stronger our country will be.

So I do think it's ok to be zen about this election. It's very important and a Republican win would be extremely bad but I don't think it's the end of the world as some people think. It just means our current suffering will be needlessly prolonged. No point in being a nervous wreck about it but God I hope we don't have to deal with many more cycles of MAGAism.

[LakeArenal]

8. Just don't regard polls.

I’m told this one is a good poll, that one is a bad poll, why do I discount a good poll?

I don't regard them much either way.

To me it’s just somewhat educated conjecture.

[SheltieLover]

10. I think early voting stats are, at least, indicative of functional brain cells.

Many magats still don't exercise precautions against COVID & don't generally have to be concerned about long voting lines, vote suppression, etc., so I'm guessing a good chunk of early voters are Democratic.

I don't pay a bit of attention to polling because we know corporate greed rules the media & they are, for the most part, decidedly rwnjs.

Dems also tend to be much more capable of independent thought, thankfully.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

11. One thing that I think has been established

Is that Dems vote early and by mail. Republicans vote on election day.
So high Dem numbers now don't necessarily mean there will be an advantage. Although it does show the firewall that Rs need to overcome with same-day voting.

[SlimJimmy]

13. If talking to some of my GOP friends is any indication ...

They are also voting early and using absentee ballots more this year. Still, we have always had an advantage via early voting and absentee ballots. I guess we'll know for sure in a couple of weeks.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

14. That is so strange...

With the Republicans pushing the illegal early voting canard...

[SlimJimmy]

15. They're getting their marching orders from RW radio.

I skip around the channels a lot (XM radio) and hear it as well.

[LetMyPeopleVote]

16. Forget the polls, go vote

Link to tweet

[onenote]

17. This article suggests that its not.

Is he right? I don't know.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/10/25/early-voting-data-bad-predicting-midterms/

[kentuck]

18. In my opinion, they were "likely" voters anyhow...

I doubt that many of them were new voters.