My Interpretation of the Early Exit Poll Numbers

[louis c]

Some early exit polls are coming in but they can't say what the horse race is.

One group caught my eye. Fathers are voting 54% to 43% for Romney. Mothers are voting 54% to 44% for Obama. on the face of it, it seems like a wash in the gender gap. But hold on.

What about childless individuals? Single women, who tend to childless, are overwhelmingly for Obama. And men without children tend to be younger and single, another pro-Obama demographic.

Even if the childless people, who will make up about 20% of the remaining voters, breaks 60% to 40% for Obama, that's a national polling edge of about 4%. If Obama wins nationally by 4%, it will be an electoral vote landslide.

Still coming in are Virgina exit polls that show that 50% of the Virgina voters are either enthusiastic or satisfied with Obama. 47% are either dissatisfied or angry at Obama. That's Virginia and those are good numbers.

[Avalon6]

1. Bottomline: Exit polls show the polls were right n/t

[nadinbrzezinski]

2. Your VA numbers are interesting

If VA is called early for Obama, it will be a good sign...that is from me looking at all numbers.

[louis c]

3. That's CNN

These numbers are for us political addicts. We can look at these and extrapolate to a trend. so far, I like what I see.

In the Mothers and Fathers numbers, if they made it Men and Women, even an idiot could put it together. If it's Men, Romney 53% to 44% and Women Obama 57% to 41%, anyone could do the math. (these numbers are my estimates).