Rosenberg was right.

[Nevilledog]

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MeidasTouch

@MeidasTouch
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Yikes. In a FiveThirtyEight podcast released Nov 2, hosts mocked Simon Rosenberg for suggesting partisan pollsters were cooking the polling averages: "Oh no, not this partisan pollster bullshit. Not this bullshit dude. I've never seen so much hopium smoked."

Rosenberg was right.


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5:40 PM · Nov 9, 2022

[Fiendish Thingy]

1. Nate Silver was the second biggest loser last night after Trump

Nate got played big time by obvious rat-fucking partisan polls.

[uponit7771]

2. THIS !!!! ☝🏾☝🏾☝🏾

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. And I've been a big defender of 538 over the years

They were the most accurate in 2016, giving Trump a 1-in-3 chance of winning.

I guess they decided narrative driving click bait was more important than integrity this time.

[uponit7771]

4. Same, I gave em a break but no more. No other G20 country gets polling this wrong in these numbers

... for this long tilted towards one party and that system broke hard this election cycle.

538 needs to do something different no doubt.

[DestinyIsles]

5. Of course what they said was stupid

and a lot of leaning left leaning podcast where trashing the same fact that Republicans were flooding averages with garbage polls.

[Nevilledog]

6. They certainly weren't the only.

[Indykatie]

7. Why Do Folks Keep Saying Nate/538 is a Pollster?

That's not what 538 does. They're an aggregator site that uses other people's polls to populate their data engines for their analyses. Shitty polls results in shitty analyses. I fault 538 for not being more selective about the pollsters and polls they include in their analyses. I don't think any pollster that hasn't done a specified number of polls of the state or area they're working in should ever be included. At the end we had marketing firms and others firms releasing crappy polls to boost the GOP averages and 538 included them in the mix. That's a big part of why they ended up being so off the mark on their projections.

[Nevilledog]

8. The OP doesn't call Nate/538 pollsters