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DU Home » Latest Threads » Forums & Groups » Main » General Discussion (Forum) » Ralston said that if Cort...

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:18 PM

Claustrum (4,460 posts)

Ralston said that if Cortez keeps up the 60+% of votes like the first batch in NV

she will be ahead out of the 84k votes that's expected to be counted.

First Clark dump of only 14K new ballots and CCM reduces statewide deficit to 18K.

Ds have to love first dump, gaining 5K out of first 14K ballots, with 65 percent to 30 percent spread.

That's first 14K of 84K in Clark.

If margins continue like that, she will be ahead.

IF.

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19 replies	Author	Time	Post
Ralston said that if Cortez keeps up the 60+% of votes like the first batch in NV (Original post)	Claustrum	Nov 2022	OP
She's gonna make it!!	PortTack	Nov 2022	#1
But the question becomes how do those outstanding ballots from Washoe work out?	W_HAMILTON	Nov 2022	#2
I think there is 60k from Washoe.	Claustrum	Nov 2022	#4
OMG! We're relying on the cops of Reno 911.	Yavin4	Nov 2022	#8
Ralston seemed to think the Washoe ballots might slightly favor	triron	Nov 2022	#12
This is very good news indeed!	honest.abe	Nov 2022	#3
FWIW, betting markets	Johnny2X2X	Nov 2022	#5
Yeah, FWIW... But it sounds promisng	Cha	Nov 2022	#7
Yeah.	Johnny2X2X	Nov 2022	#11
The drop from Maricopa County helped Hobbs.	triron	Nov 2022	#14
Boo on Lake.. & Hope they're Wrong about the	Cha	Nov 2022	#15
Great news.	triron	Nov 2022	#13
At this rate CCM will gain another 25000 votes	honest.abe	Nov 2022	#6
There is still 60k votes from Washoe which is not as blue, and a few thousand votes from rural area.	Claustrum	Nov 2022	#9
As long as there are no big R leaning chunks of votes remaining..	honest.abe	Nov 2022	#16
Fingers VERY	BlueMTexpat	Nov 2022	#10
Come on CMM	Doc Sportello	Nov 2022	#17
It's not just on a selfish point.	Claustrum	Nov 2022	#18
Yes and he won't have Kemp's coattails	Doc Sportello	Nov 2022	#19

Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:20 PM

PortTack (29,073 posts)

1. She's gonna make it!!

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:21 PM

W_HAMILTON (6,748 posts)

2. But the question becomes how do those outstanding ballots from Washoe work out?

I think that county is more of a split county, so it might come down to them. I believe it is tens of thousands still left to be counted there as well, although not as many as in Clark.

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:22 PM

Claustrum (4,460 posts)

4. I think there is 60k from Washoe.

Then it's up to the mail in ballots that's coming in daily. It's going to be close unfortunately.

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:32 PM

Yavin4 (34,052 posts)

8. OMG! We're relying on the cops of Reno 911.

Lord, help us.

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Response to W_HAMILTON (Reply #2)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:37 PM

triron (21,037 posts)

12. Ralston seemed to think the Washoe ballots might slightly favor

Democrats. He seems very upbeat about Democrats winning many of the races. But not governor.

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:22 PM

honest.abe (7,170 posts)

3. This is very good news indeed!

This is hughi!1?!

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:25 PM

Johnny2X2X (15,767 posts)

5. FWIW, betting markets

Betting market has Cortez-Mastro at over 70% to win.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:32 PM

Cha (283,860 posts)

7. Yeah, FWIW... But it sounds promisng

it could be the other way.

Always looking for something positive.. TY.

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Response to Cha (Reply #7)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:36 PM

Johnny2X2X (15,767 posts)

11. Yeah.

Betting markets basically have Rep House almost a lock. Dem Senate almost a lock.

But they also have Lake at 70% to win in AZ.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:39 PM

triron (21,037 posts)

14. The drop from Maricopa County helped Hobbs.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #11)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:44 PM

Cha (283,860 posts)

15. Boo on Lake.. & Hope they're Wrong about the

House.

They could be right on some things and not so much on others.

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Response to Johnny2X2X (Reply #5)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:38 PM

triron (21,037 posts)

13. Great news.

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:28 PM

honest.abe (7,170 posts)

6. At this rate CCM will gain another 25000 votes

Which would put her well ahead.

This is a huge relief!

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Response to honest.abe (Reply #6)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:32 PM

Claustrum (4,460 posts)

9. There is still 60k votes from Washoe which is not as blue, and a few thousand votes from rural area.

And then we still have the daily mail in ballots that's coming in daily (postmarked before the 8th) that should favor democrats. It's just a very close one with a bit of favoring dems. Granted, we need to keep pace with that 2:1 ratio.

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Response to Claustrum (Reply #9)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:46 PM

honest.abe (7,170 posts)

16. As long as there are no big R leaning chunks of votes remaining..

I think she has got this.

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:33 PM

BlueMTexpat (15,131 posts)

10. Fingers VERY

crossed here!

Thank God for DU! If I relied solely on the US M$M, I would never have known how well Dems have done!

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Response to Claustrum (Original post)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:47 PM

Doc Sportello (6,889 posts)

17. Come on CMM

From a purely selfish point of view I don't want to wait more than a month for the GA runoff to determine who controls the Senate.

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Response to Doc Sportello (Reply #17)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:49 PM

Claustrum (4,460 posts)

18. It's not just on a selfish point.

If we already hold the senate, a lot of republicans that held their nose to vote for Walker for senate would have no reason to vote in the run-off, making that race much easier for Warnock.

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Response to Claustrum (Reply #18)

Wed Nov 9, 2022, 10:55 PM

Doc Sportello (6,889 posts)

19. Yes and he won't have Kemp's coattails

Even better in my mind is if CMM can win Nevada, repubs won't be able to use control of the senate as a motivating factor in getting out their voters, some of whom don't like Walker as a person but voted for him in this election. I think Warnock would win fairly easily in that scenario.

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