I have seen enough. CCM wins!!!

[DemocratSinceBirth]

Last edited Fri Nov 11, 2022, 08:20 PM - Edit history (4)

Catherine Cortes Mastos has defeated Adam Laxalt. Good night and good luck.







What a prediction, hours and hours ago.

[SoCalDavidS]

1. What Happened To Counting All The Votes Before Making Predictions?

Funny how when I post a prediction prematurely, I get flamed and trashed.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

2. I must have called a dozen or so races, don't think I missed one.

Could always be the first. And since I have been here twenty years my prognostications get some deference for which I am truly appreciative of.

[mvd]

3. You always call it as you see it. I respect that

So happy you have CCM winning - would end worry about Senate control.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

4. I'm basing it on experts following the returns as they come in and betting markets.

I'm bound to be wrong, especially the earlier I make my predictions, but I haven't been wrong yet. I would add experts get it wrong too fron time to time.

[yardwork]

27. I've been reading your posts for a long time and respect them.

I hope you're right again this time!

[SoCalDavidS]

5. She's Down By Almost 2%, With 165K Votes Outstanding

I don't see what basis you have for making that prediction. I guess optimistic predictions about Democrats, are popular on DU.

There was an expert on MSNBC earlier, and he said that a win by her was possible, but far from a certainty, since there were many unknowns about the 90K+ outstanding ballots in Northern Nevada.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. I have been doing this long, long, long... long time.

[SoCalDavidS]

9. What Are Your Thoughts About The House?

I had a thread today saying that the Democrats have lost the House, and I got criticized by many for not waiting until the votes were counted.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

10. I suspect the House is lost but we have a 1 in 5 chance.

[W_HAMILTON]

14. The experts on NV elections are suggesting as much.

Jon Ralston and Dr. John R. Samuelsen. Go check their recent tweets, especially Samuelsen's.

It's an informed prediction, contrary to the Debbie Downers that kept chain-posted what we now know to be bullshit Republican propaganda polling constantly here before the elections.

[PortTack]

6. OMG..we control the senate

[Cha]

11. I'm not a downer person but we

were told last night that boebert was Gone and we Celebrated...

Turns out it hadn't happened. I'm one who wants all the votes in.. I've been burned too many times... bush & bush.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. The local affiliate has called it for Frisch based on where the outstanding votes are.

,

[Cha]

13. Ty! Good!!! Pueblo and Garfield County where

Glenwood Springs is!

[Cha]

8. See enough where? On tv.. do have any

evidence.. 'cause we'd like to know? TY.

[W_HAMILTON]

15. Check Dr. John R. Samuelsen's recent tweets on the situation.

Like John Ralston, Samuelsen is well versed in NV elections (the two often reference each other back and forth).

[Cha]

16. TY.. Ralston certainly has

had to go back & forth the last couple of days.

I remember Ralston and Nevada from 2016.

[mahina]

19. Hi Cha, here's a link.

I have never heard of this fella but he’s got a lot of data and I like where is going with it. I don’t know if he’s right or not- sure hope so. This is the fella Hamilton upthread mentioned.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen

[Cha]

20. Mahalo mahina! I just saw a video with

Adam Frisch on Joy Reid's show.. he would be so amazing for Colorado District 3!

[onetexan]

17. i'm confident all 3 - CCM, Mark Kelly & Warnock - will continue in the Senate

we all knew it was going to be close, but given the way things stand the votes outstanding will deliver in their favor, even for Warnock having to go thru runoff. We just need to be patient. Remember in the general we had to wait till Saturday to have it called for @POTUS?
Yes Dems w remain in control of the Senate, from a stronger stance

[Celerity]

22. Are you claiming Warnock hits 50% in the general, so no runoff? Not a chance. If I misunderstood you

I apologise.

I do think Warnock wins the runoff, btw.

[onetexan]

23. ixnay on the no runoff. What i'm saying is DESPITE the runoff Warnock w come out on top.

[Celerity]

25. ahh, agree!!! hugz

[KS Toronado]

18. On MSNBC tonight it was explained

that the 2 remaining areas where they are still counting votes are Democratic leaning areas.
So yes it looks real good for CCM as there are still 165,713 ballots outstanding.

[Wanderlust988]

21. It's important that Kelly and CCM wins so that Warnock will glide to an easy runoff win

If CCM and Kelly wins, the Dems win the Senate. That will take out all of the energy in the GA runoff. Those Repubs won't bother voting for Waker. He would get beat soundly.

I think Warnock would win a runoff anyway, but it'll be easier if the Senate is already out of reach for the Repubs.

[kansasobama]

24. As much I want it-Will not happen-CCM will not win but praying

I watched Ralston all day. He is clearly saying she won't win but is putting a brave face.

[cally]

26. No, latest tweet says she has a good chance

Link to tweet

[honest.abe]

29. Yep, CCM should gain about 5000 votes per 15000 total votes if the 2/3 ratio continues.

That would put her well ahead once all the counting is done.

[honest.abe]

28. I think you misread Ralston.

He is hedging a bit but I think he believes she will win. I do too. The math works out if you take the time to run the numbers.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

37. Ye of little faith.

[Treefrog]

30. Time will tell.

These DU predictions so often come to naught.

[jcgoldie]

31. FWIW betting markets agree

Predictit up 20 cents for CCM today to 89. I think the fact that they have 70 k more ballots out of the same batches as she took 65-30 yesterday has swung confidence.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

32. This

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217346526

[DemocratSinceBirth]

33. It's happening.

Remember when I predictited it.

[BlackSkimmer]

34. Really?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

35. I stand by all my predictions.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

36. This