Back to square one in the Senate.

[kentuck]

If Republicans win NV, but Democrats take AZ and GA, the Senate will be in the same place it was before the election, numbers wise. That is a real possibility.

No doubt, it would be a huge disappointment for McConnell and the Republicans.

But, it could be best for the country and for the Democratic Party, if that becomes the reality.

The Democratic Party could organize for a couple of years to take back the country in 2024, when they could take back the House, Senate, and White House.

Meanwhile, there is going to be a battle between Trump and DeSantis and whomever else may want to get into the fray. It is hard to envision a united Republican Party in the next couple of years. They are presently a scattered and disorganized bunch of misfits.

[W_HAMILTON]

1. Republicans aren't going to win NV.

[texasfiddler]

2. I think it will be square one + 1. NT

[GreenWave]

19. We are looking at Square 2 probably.

Which means Mansion and Cinema can join forces. But the Senate will no longer have 50/50 committees.

[DestinyIsles]

3. unlikely we will just end up with 50 seats

NV seems to be in good shape for Cortez Masto to win. We will have 51 seats after runoff in Georgia happens.

[MLAA]

4. I agree with you almost entirely. I think they are misfits and assholes!

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Nevada is going blue

This is almost a done deal.

[Claustrum]

7. I agree.

But I still think we need to organize and soar up our support in NV. It's too close for comfort. We can't take any states for granted, especially these close ones, even if we win.

[kentuck]

8. She will close the gap...

But I don't know if there are enough votes left for her to overtake the deficit.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. She'll win by 50,000+

That's not really a big question right now. Cortez Masto will win Nevada's Senate race. Mark Kelly winning Arizona's race is a bigger question, but also probably safe too.

Georgia runoff will be for Dems having 51 seats.

[Claustrum]

6. We definitely need to invest some into WI, PA, NC, NV, AZ.

They are definitely purple and need organizing to soar up our margins there. Win or lose.

[Johnny2X2X]

17. WI is a problem

It's jerrymandered to all hell. Dems win 53% of the votes statewide and Republicans get a near super majority in the state House.

Michigan fixed their districts with a ballot initiative put to the voters to redistrict with a bipartisan independent panel. It obviously worked to make things fair and now Dems control the whole state.

Not sure if there can be off cycle redistricting, and how Wisconsin's ballot proposal laws are, but redistricting solves Wisconsin's problems. Wisconsin is a blue state, it should be sending more Dems to Washington than Reps on the regular.

[Claustrum]

20. Don't get me wrong, gerrymandering is a huge problem.

But I think some races on Tuesday shows that we can combat that. When they soar up their weaker district, they might leave districts they think are safe into possible districts. We won many districts that were lean republican, which means like 75% to win.

Anyways, I am thinking more for presidential than district. I think the coattail on the top of the tickets helps the local races a lot. We've seen that on both side (some OH races, NC, and NY for republicans). So for me, the organizing I am thinking is more on the state level.

[sdfernando]

26. Texas did off-cycle redistricting in 2003

Tom Delay's work to totally eff up texas. The SC uphead it with a few caveats.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_Texas_redistricting

[Beetwasher.]

9. We Will Win All Three, AZ, NV and GA

Right now current reports for AZ and NV are very favorable and it's very likely now we win those two. Warnock will also have the upper hand in GA for a variety of reasons; he got the most votes already, our side is motivated, and Walker loses many of his voters who were voting for Kemp and just went down the R line, but won't be motivated to vote in the recall for Walker.

[CrispyQ]

15. Excellent points, especially about Walker/Kemp connection & how he won't have that this time.

Going to set up a small weekly donation to Warnock, just the same.

Wonderfully positive post!

[Beetwasher.]

18. Want Some More Positivity?

How about this; the house will be closer than anyone expects and we very well may hold it. We may run the table on most of the remaining races, in a close environment like this one, that can happen when one side clearly has the momentum. Boebert is going to lose as well.

[CrispyQ]

21. Wow. That is a BIG dose of positivity!

I'm hopeful about Boebert & crosses fingers you're right about the rest!

[Marius25]

10. Republicans aren't winning NV

Even Dave Wasserman said it's looking likely Dems are getting 50 without GA.

[honest.abe]

11. I think CCM wins in NV.

But I dont think it matters that much. We would have majority either way and if the R's take the House (which is likely) then no substantial legislation is going to happen in the next two years. Senate votes wont really come into play.

[in2herbs]

13. The Senate does not need the House to expand the court. nt

[honest.abe]

16. Ok I wasnt thinking of that.

Do you really think that is a possibility even with 51 Dem senators?

[kwolf68]

25. We are not expanding the court

The Dems may well end up with 50 or 51, but you know 2 of those don't really count completely. They give the Dems majority, but don't pretend Sinema and Manchin will fall in line for adding to the courts. I don't think it will even be brought up.

[in2herbs]

12. If the only way to get anything of substance passed before we lose majority is to go nuclear and

blow up the filibuster then it must be done. We need to expand the USSC, pass voting rights legislation, and, if it can be done, pass legislation that will blunt the CU decision.

[Alhena]

22. I'm more worried about Georgia than Nevada- almost certain we have the numbers in NV

Runoffs are unpredictable - Republicans will probably try to sell independent voters in GA on the notion that a 50-50 split will allow Manchin to continue his shenanigans, which are popular with independents.

[honest.abe]

23. If CCM wins in NV it will be a tough sell to R voters if Senate control is not at stake.

Also remember they would only be voting for Walker.. no other R candidates on the ballot. I think for many that will be a turnoff.

But agreed anything can happen and it will be massive shit show with tons of money and political influence thrown at this election.

[grantcart]

24. Yes but

If we go into the run off with 50 then the Republicans lose their only argument "vote for this nut because we can keep the Senate".

James Carville made an interesting point a couple of years ago about Southern voters

Asked why there was a Democratic governor ina place like Kentucky he said something to the effect that they will vote Republican BUT the golden rule is don't vote for some idiot that will embarrass them and be the butt of jokes every night on the news.

If we go into the run off with the Senate a lot of Republicans will simply stay home.