Just did some Nevada Senate math, have questions

[Polybius]

Of all the counties left, one big one favors Catherine Cortez Masto and that's Clark County (Washoe is a virtual tie, with CCM leading by 0.24%). Clark County is 88% in (with 608,429 votes), and CCM had a 5% lead. What I'm not sure about is does that the 608,429 are already in with 12% more to go, or does it mean that the total amount with everything when it reaches 100%?

If it means the the total once everything is in, then that means that there are 73,011 votes in that county left.

So if that trend holds, CCM be getting 52.5% of the votes. That would be 38,331 for her, and 34,680 for Adam Laxalt. That's a pickup of 3,651 votes for her. Plus, there are a few remaining Red counties left, some light where she can pick up votes.

Is there different data than the NYT is showing? Did I do some math wrong (I used to be good in math, but that was over 20 years ago lol). Scroll down to where it says "Where votes have been reported and where votes remain."

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/11/08/us/elections/results-nevada-us-senate.html

[Johnny2X2X]

1. Mail in votes

Counties are only part of the math, these are mail in votes, which favor Cortez Masto no matter where they're coming from, and will likely favor her 2-1 in Clark County.

[Polybius]

2. Ok thank you

I was told that those who mailed the vote the last day are unpredictable. Not sure being late is a Democrat vs. Republican thing, so now there's less to worry about. Thank you.

[Johnny2X2X]

3. You're welcome

Been paying close attention too.

And the first sample drop from these remaining mail in votes broke almost 70-30 blue. So we have a great indicator of what will happen going forward.

It’s the same pile of votes so to speak. It’s why the experts like Ralston and Wasserman are basically saying Cortez Masto is a huge favorite to in right now.

The betting markets have her as a 9-1 favorite right now.

[inthewind21]

8. The % in

Is bogus, Seeing as mail in ballots will be received through Saturday 11/12 and accepted and counted as long as they were postmarked by 11/08. Unless someone is clairvoyant and knows what will come in the mail today and Saturday, there's no way to tell what's left to count. Hence no way to accurately say what percentage of votes are left. I dropped my mail ballot at a polling location on 11/06. It's not counted yet.

[exboyfil]

5. Thanks I just did the math myself about an hour ago

and got depressed. You have brightened my day.


Let's keep fingers crossed. A Nevada win might demoralize the GOP in Georgia as well. I just wish we could have gotten that Wisconsin seat.

[Johnny2X2X]

7. Great point on GA

Without the Senate in the balance, Reps won't vote for Walker. Dems will still come out for Warnock.

[Johnny2X2X]

4. And another thing

Some in the media are saying this about Arizona too. That the same day drop box votes are unpredictable. Well, Republicans told their voters to only vote in person this cycle. They actually had armed militia standing near drop boxes in Arizona because they thought that's where the fraud is happening. So I do not expect Arizona Republicans to have many voters who used drop boxes at all, even same day.

The GOP is shooting themselves in the foot shunning mail in and drop off voting. It's completely idiotic and I hope they keep it up.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

6. Drop-offs favored Sinema in 2018

They favored Trump slightly in 2020.
The question is which model is closer - I'm seeing reports that turnout was lower than 2018, so I think that's probably closer. And I agree that it seems less likely they would use the dropboxes after Lake's screeching about fraud.
I'm extremely confident that Kelly and Fontes will win. I'm bullish on Hobbs, but one bad Maricopa drop could change that... Charlie Kirk and Gateway Pundit followers are flooding any discussion on Twitter with prognostications that it's going to swing hard for Lake any day.

[dsc]

9. I think the percent in is based on precincts not votes