Small AZ vote drop

[AZSkiffyGeek]

Yavapai county - probably the reddest in the state - Gosar territory.
3000 ballots - broke 60/40 for the Rs.

That is an underperformance - they'll make up a little ground, but they were getting 75% on election day. Looks good for Hobbs, and Kelly is probably close to being able to be called.

Big Maricopa drop is expected to favor Dems tonight as well.

[Sucha NastyWoman]

1. Keep us informed

Thanks.

[iluvtennis]

15. +1.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. Hobbs is back to being the betting favorite to win today

Was an underdog yesterday, now a slight favorite.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

5. Positive Maricopa drops

Although apparently these are still mail-in drops, and no one really knows how the day-of drop-off early ballots will break. They went D in 18, but R in 20.
But Qari and Co. have spent the past several months casting doubt on early voting, so I wouldn't think her followers would vote that way.
The Election Day vote was ridiculously lopsided everywhere for Qari though.

[Demsrule86]

16. The culinary unions told their workers to drop off their mail-in ballots so it is likely they will

be for us

[Mosby]

3. Mayes is winning now, and Hobbs is up more than yesterday

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/33/0

[dembotoz]

4. under performed is music to my ears

before an area can turn blue it must turn purple.
underperformed means we are putting up a fight.

[MLAA]

6. Do you have a website that tracks the drops that you could share?

Seems like last election I had it but can’t find it now. This Arizonan is very optimistic!

[AZSkiffyGeek]

9. @Garrett_Archer on Twitter is the best source

He's the AZ equivalent of @RalstonReports from Nevada.
His tweets, not most of the responses. He breaks everything down, but then he's swarmed by MAGATs who don't know what they're talking about.

Arizona gets most of its drops between 4-7 daily, occasionally smaller ones come throughout the day, but Pima and Maricopa are theoretically at 6 daily (but usually late).

[honest.abe]

7. Looking forward to the big drop tonight. Do you know what time?

I am anticipating good news.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

10. They're supposed to be at 6

They're usually around 6:45

[AZSkiffyGeek]

11. Spoke too soon

Pima just dropped some. Looks like 4K net gain for Hobbs.

[honest.abe]

12. Fantastic!

[AZSkiffyGeek]

13. Details

Pima County (Tucson) has posted 12,413 ballots.

Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake
32.8
@katiehobbs
67.2

Senate
@bgmasters
29.3
@CaptMarkKelly
68.5

AZSOS
@RealMarkFinchem
31.2
@Adrian_Fontes
68.8

AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh
33.7
@krismayes
66.3

[grantcart]

23. Mayes is now up 7k We are going to sweep AZ

[AZSkiffyGeek]

24. I'm not ready to say that at all

There are still election day drop-offs from Maricopa.
And we aren't going to sweep - Treasurer is staying R, and Superintendent of Schools is VERY close.
But I am optimistic.

[grantcart]

28. Only the top 4 but in my book that is a sweep

People voting on election day

At the polls R and D those votes already counted, more R

At the drop box on election day, not counted and going to be heavily D. They were told not to trust the drop boxes. If a Republican waited to vote on election day there is a very high percentage chance they completed a ballot and Avery low percentage that they dropped it ballot off.

Kelly and Fontes are beyond R reach.

Hobbs#s are very similar to Sinema's in 2018 where on the day after the election she was behind McSally but increased her numbers every day.

AG going in the right direction.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

29. Those are my feelings as well.

I'm also wondering about the 17K that tried to vote on Election Day but had to put them in drop boxes because of equipment issues. Would a conspiracy nut actually go through with that? Or would they just go elsewhere to vote?
I've also seen that voting #s were actually lower than 2018, so I'm not sure where this flood of Republicans will come from in order to save the day.
I admit though, the day-of voting was absolutely brutal for the Dems across the state.

[grantcart]

31. Hoffman is about to go into the lead, only behind by 1500

[AZSkiffyGeek]

32. She's back in the lead

Very good drops over the past hour. Maricopa coming in an hour or so.

[grantcart]

33. According to Kornacki Maricopa hasn't dropped yet

[AZSkiffyGeek]

34. It should in an hour

And should be favorable to Hobbs/Kelly

[jcgoldie]

8. not good news for Ms Big Dick Energy!

[KarenS]

14. Thank you!! You are providing great information and

are easing my worries about this!

[AZSkiffyGeek]

17. AZ's process can be frustrating

But after about 10 cycles following this sort of thing you get used to it. And this sort of data wrangling - I kinda get off on it!

[Celerity]

21. Do you think those 275K late late Maricopa drop off ballots will break R (like 2020) or D like 2018?

If they break even semi significantly R overall, Hobbs is in big trouble.

On the positive side, anything other than pretty heavy R and Kelly should win, IMHO.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

26. I don't know

My sense of overall national trends is that it feels more like 2018 than 2020.
There have been some late drop-off drops from smaller counties, and it feels like the Rs are underperforming.

I also find it questionable that when a slate of candidates is running around saying the Early Voting is corrupt and to vote on election day, that there would be a huge number who ignored that and voted by mail and dropped off anyhow.

[cheri010353]

27. I am thinking that

it's not really valid to compare 2018 and 2020. Maybe drop-offs broke for R's in 2020 because of covid. Dems might have been responsible and avoided going out more than they had to so mailed their ballots instead of dropping them off.

[moonscape]

18. Thanks. I'll sleep again if

Lake loses. She is terrifying

[AZSkiffyGeek]

19. Lake is crazy, evil and an opportunist

But Finchem is the one that is REALLY terrifying. He's a true believer - Oath Keeper and an insurrectionist (didn't go in the Capitol though).
Thankfully he seems to be going down the hardest.

[COL Mustard]

20. Lake's not crazy

At least from my East Coast perspective. She’s shrewd though, and calculating. Evil and opportunistic I’ll give you!

[bdamomma]

22. Thanks for posting

keep the good news coming. I'm kind of worried about that stupid Boebert race. I hope she doesn't get in. And I'm not even from the state.

[Roc2020]

25. Good to know wonderful

[jalan48]

30. Thanks for this info.