Key Variable between 2020/2022 that every pollster(+ pundit) overlooked that underestimated Dems
Data is a two dimensional reality. When putting together a model projecting turnout pollsters are largely
guided by turnout in the last election. They are taking a two dimensional fact and plugging it into a two
dimensional projection.
Humans are three dimensional and there is a key organizational element that was existentially different between
2020 and 2022.
Republicans generally raise more money and have more ads.
Democrats raise more volunteers.
Democrats have perfected a GOTV system that checks every vote cast and contacts every dem or every voter identified as voting dem to remind them to vote, ask if they need a ride or babysitting, etc. We even have teams working on "curing" ballots set aside.
In every year that was a combination of phone banks and knocking on the doors.
In 2020 the pandemic was still in force and protocols were still being observed. No phone banks but calling from home and no knocking on doors.
In 2022 we were back with an army of phone banks and army of door knockers. Campaign professionals cite hard data that an aggressive door knocking campaign will add 2-3%
I wasn't able to door knock this year but friends told me that it was one of the biggest turn out ever in Maricopa county (and elsewhere I am sure). The most common comment was that there was a sharp increase of women in their 20s and 30s that were coming in and volunteering off the street to knock on doors.
Everything else in a campaign is measured, money, commercials, visibility on networks but the hidden variable that never is seen by those who sit in offices looking at paper: the enthusiastic volunteer who is knocking on doors in the dark at 7 at night spreading the spark of team work.
Not scientific but I am guessing that is why our turn out numbers are a lot more like 2018 than they were 2020. Big thanks to all those who knocked, I think it was the difference.
= new reply since forum marked as read
