UH OH ... Alaska House race is also ranked-choice.

[eppur_se_muova]

Peltola currently has 47.3%, with two R's and a Libertarian following. The L will be dropped, and won't much affect things. But unless some whose first choice was Begich (R, wacko) made their second choice Peltola (D), instead of Palin (R, also wacko, in a different way), Palin could emerge with the highest total.

Can someone with a better understanding of ranked-choice or AK politics tell me why this can't/won't happen? :begging:

[emulatorloo]

1. On the gossip side, Palin hates Begich. And she likes Peltola.

Doesn’t answer your question, but I found it kinda interesting.

[brooklynite]

2. Answer: it didn't happen in the Special Election in August

A significant share of Begich second place votes went to Peltola then.

People who voted for Begich did so because they don't like Palin. And Palin would need to get about 80% of his second place votes to win.

[eppur_se_muova]

9. Thanks, that's reassuring ... and seems to be the unanimous opinion on DU. nt

[USAFRetired_Liberal]

3. This exact same scenario played out during the special election

And Peltola’s numbers look better now then they did when she won.

[iemanja]

4. I don't think it will be a problem

Peltola is way ahead.

[Johnny2X2X]

5. Peltola will win

At least 1 in 10 Begich voters will have to have Peltola as their second choice and she’ll beat that easily.

[Orangepeel]

6. it won't happen because it didn't happen in the special election

more Begich voters will go to Peltola

[dsc]

7. Using the numbers now

Peltola has 101441 votes and the other three candidates have a total of 112678. Total votes cast now is 214119. Lets assume she gets none of the Libertarian votes, since they aren't enough to change who is 2nd, that means Beigich would drop out next and you would have 60,851 votes for Palin (if she gets all the Libertarian votes) and 51,927 votes left to have a 2nd choice. She needs a margin of 40,591 votes from those to win by 1 vote. That is a 78.1% margin if all of those votes have a 2nd choice. That would mean she only needs to do better than losing 88.05 to 10.95 or 46,259 to 5,668. Conversely she only needs to have 11.337 voters not to have a 2nd choice. In short, she is in great shape, since Palin and Begich hate each other.

[W_HAMILTON]

8. Peltola will win.

She will probably win quite handily, actually. Maybe by 10%? Or more? I'm not sure, but she will certainly win. No worries here.