General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTonight's drop in Arizona is going to be important
This is going to be so so tight......and most likely why they are not calling the Gov yet.
Link to tweet
About 90k of the remaining 170k uncounted EVs are from the ruby red CDs 5, 8, and 9. Another 70k from purple CDs 1 and 4.
.........................
Hobbs needs to keep this lot as close as possible. Hopefully they will be bluer than expected.
Fingers, toes, legs, arms and anything else will be crossed.
KarenS
(4,088 posts)the Democrats bec the R's were encouraged to vote on 'the day'.
((fingers crossed))
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)ProudMNDemocrat
(16,808 posts)For Sec. Of State and AG there.
What makes Lake think she will not be rejected?
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)underpants
(182,925 posts)I just looked it up. 👍
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)Mosby
(16,377 posts)The election in az is over.
Just stop it.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)They have a large lead, but the other 3 are really in a fight for it.
However much we'd like it to be.
Mosby
(16,377 posts)Coventina
(27,195 posts)It is VERY important to me what this next batch of votes are.
You didn't have to click on the thread if you don't care.
Mosby
(16,377 posts)Maybe you should check yourself instead of relying on some discussion board.
https://results.arizona.vote/#/legislative/33/0
Coventina
(27,195 posts)My FEDERAL CD is #1
Where those stats apply.
Yes, it looks like Mendez is going to win for state.
I apologize for the confusion.
Coventina
(27,195 posts)Coventina
(27,195 posts)So, tell me again how it was "over" and I will have a Dem rep in Congress?
Mosby
(16,377 posts)But it's the only change from days ago. And he won by about 3000 votes.
moonscape
(4,674 posts)into another pretzel so tightly that Ill need a crane to untangle me.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)GreenWave
(6,773 posts)sunonmars
(8,656 posts)AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)Every day is "this drop is the one to put Lake up". She's running out of room, she didn't do well in CD1 last night, and CD4 is NOT purple.
There seems to be an assumption that all R votes are going for Qari, along with half the I votes. That's just not happening.
Plus there's still 50K out in Pima, which have consistently been breaking 60/40 for Hobbs.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)Its clear though Hobbs and the other statewide Dems ran some way behind Kelly and Fontes.
I'm interested as to why just pure ticket splitting in various places?
Polybius
(15,506 posts)She's far, far more charismatic than they are. She's a darling of the far-right. If she wins, she'll be Trump's VP nominee (if he runs and gets the nomination).
Demsrule86
(68,703 posts)Polybius
(15,506 posts)Trump won't win either.
AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)There was also a 3rd party candidate in the Senate race, and Finchem was the worst candidate of the three.
Happy Hoosier
(7,406 posts)He seems well intentioned, but he keeps warning of a large swing that never seems to materialize. But the race is tight, so caution is advised.
AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)He won't make any calls or predictions for the ultimate result. All he's saying is where the votes are coming from, Charlie Kirk fans are swarming his posts making predictions of the content of those ballots, and they are basing it off 2020 results.
They're forgetting that Trump didn't win in 2020, and that Lake is underperforming Trump.
The conventional wisdom on Tuesday was that Hobbs needed at least a 10 point lead with the early votes out the gate.
She had 12 points.
Election day voting nuked that lead down to 5000 votes, but since then she's expanded her lead every day.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)but where that goes in reality is just unknown.
AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)I think the breakdown of the remaining votes is something like 28D/38I/44R. Lake is losing the Independents and underperforming the Republicans.
Happy Hoosier
(7,406 posts)That dude has been overestimating Lakes performance consistently.
AZSkiffyGeek
(11,087 posts)People have been reading into where the votes are left and expecting them to break hugely for Lake. So far they aren't.
Happy Hoosier
(7,406 posts)Hes be cautionary, but not predictive. He backed off some of his earlier suggestions as the votes margins were not as big for Lake as some suggested they might be.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)honest.abe
(8,685 posts)Link to tweet
/photo/1
If you run the numbers using the average lean it comes to about 5000 votes gain for Lake. I did the estimates in my head so could be off a bit.
sunonmars
(8,656 posts)Link to tweet
Pinal County has tabulated 4,055 ballots
Est. 12,226 EVs remain.
Batch breakdown
Governor
@KariLake
54.9
@katiehobbs
45.2
Senate
@bgmasters
50.9
@CaptMarkKelly
46.3
AZAG
@AbrahamHamadeh
55.5
@krismayes
44.5
AZED
@electtomhorne
55.4
@kathyhoffman_az
44.6