How much should we worry about people leaving blue states for lower taxes in red states?

[True Dough]

I mean, if enough Dem voters populated red states with close votes, they could swing it in the right direction. That would be the upside. Thoughts?

New Census Bureau numbers released last week reveal an unmistakable trend: High-tax blue states are losing residents to low-tax red states. Are elected officials listening?

Each year, U.S. Census officials release an analysis of migration patterns. The most recent report -- which looks at data from July 2021 through June -- paints a clear picture of Americans moving out of progressive bastions.

The 10 states with the most net domestic population loss have a bright blue hue: California, New York, Illinois, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Louisiana, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Minnesota. Meanwhile, the 10 states that enjoyed net domestic population increases have a decidedly red tinge: Florida, Texas, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Georgia, Arizona, Idaho, Alabama and Oklahoma.

https://www.nwaonline.com/news/2022/dec/31/others-say-americans-vote-with-their-u-haul/

[dem4decades]

1. The problem is, if Texas and Florida get 2 more House seats each,

The Republican state government gerrymanders the districts so they get 4 new republican congressmen.

We always lose.

[Fullduplexxx]

2. Probably republicans leaving

[FalloutShelter]

3. I left NYS

A house and a community I loved , as soon as my husband retired because we could not justify continuing to pay the astronomical property taxes.

We moved to PA and cut out property tax bill by 12,000 .

I hope our votes on a red county helped elect Shapiro and Fetterman.

[TheBlackAdder]

21. NJ has an exit tax on certain property sales, as a lot of state pensioners would retire elsewhere.

.

They would take their NJ pensions and move to cheaper states. The cost of living is expensive here, partly because we fund the socialist-hating yet socialist-sucking Red Moocher States. You know, those states that cut everything for their citizens yet still find the need to mooch off of Blue States. Their representatives purposely keep their states depressed and dependent on them bringing home the bacon -- Rand Paul & Mitch McConnell are perfect examples of selling out a million jobs to keep two.

.

[FloridaBlues]

4. It hasn't helped Florida

[JI7]

12. FAR FAR more Republicans are moving to Florida than Democrats

And we see the results of it.

[Sedona]

5. Mr Sedona and I moved in 2016 from California to Georgia

following his motion picture industry job, as hundreds if not thousands have in the last decade. The biz brings $4+ Billion to Georgia annually.

I'm a Realtor and can do that anywhere.

Honestly, it wasn't the taxes we fled, it was the insane housing costs.

Now it is kind of insane everywhere, but not Southern California insane.

I do miss the glorious weather and amazing West LA culture. Fortunately, we landed in blue Dekalb County after a short stay in reddish Cobb.

Proud to have been a part of flipping our Senate seats and CD 7 blue.

[CatWoman]

48. Howdy Neighbor

a Dekalb resident here.

It was our county who delivered for Rev. Warnock

[Maeve]

6. The bigger worry is that the blue states' infastructure will suffer

Fewer people, less tax base. But the red states will also find pressure to improve their services, so we shall see how it plays out.

[634-5789]

7. Does not seem rational.

Why the hell would ANYBODY want to go to a MAGAt based State to live? Especially Florida and ....OKLAHOMA? There's nothing there but corn. I'll stay here in beautiful Illinois, pay my taxes, and know that I'm in a State that's proud to be progressive!

[Phoenix61]

14. I went for a walk on the beach yesterday in shorts.

What did you do? It’s the weather. There’s not much else of a draw.

[we can do it]

16. Did same in Delaware yesterday.

[Phoenix61]

27. It was 70 here yesterday. nt

[we can do it]

28. 65 here in blue Delaware.

[Phoenix61]

29. Fluke for Delaware but pretty average for here.

But definitely enjoy it while it lasts.

[we can do it]

30. Nope, we frequently have nice winter days here.

No giant bugs, no stifling humidity in summer, rarely more than a dusting of snow.

No fascist governor.

[Phoenix61]

32. I get the sense our definition of "nice" is quite different.

Anything under 70 requires a coat. There’s never any snow. As far as summer there’s only a month that the heat is bad.

[we can do it]

34. Ok

[zanana1]

36. My state is better than your state.

I'm glad that's over.

[634-5789]

45. AMEN!

[EX500rider]

35. Lets look at avg's

January is Delaware's coldest winter month, with an average of 27 degrees Fahrenheit.

Vs
St Pete Fl Jan avgs
High 70°F Low 52°F

[we can do it]

47. I'm in southern DE, Rehoboth Beach. We rarely dip below freezing.

[634-5789]

43. It was 43 here yesterday. No biggie.

[we can do it]

49. Most of us appreciate some difference between seasons.

[Phoenix61]

54. Temp under 70 and I'm grabbing a jacket. nt

[BComplex]

22. And if the rich (Trump, for instance) were required to pay their fair share of taxes, we would have

a whole lot fewer problems!

I'm ready for the IRS to start auditing the big boys.

[True Dough]

24. With you on that!

So sick of the rich exploiting "loopholes" that has existed in one form or another for their benefit forever!

[DVRacer]

33. That's one way of saying you

Have never been to Oklahoma. It’s a beautiful place with lots of lakes and trees especially in Green Country. I have been to just about every state and all of them have something to offer. Right now I’m visiting southern Illinois coming through the Mark Twain Forrest stunning scenery in Missouri. Politics aren’t everything all the time.

[brush]

8. It's ok by me as many will take their Dem-voting history with them...

and thereby help turn red states purple and lessening their influence in Congress (see Arizona with Democratic governor, senator, sec'y of state etc.)

[Renew Deal]

9. It's a big assumption to say it's taxes. Cost of housing is a big factor.

So is weather. How is a newly married couple supposed to buy a house that starts at $500,000? Make that closer to $1 million in LA and San Francisco.

The bad news is that this has driven down some electoral advantages like in NY but has improved them in Georgia and Arizona.

[OnionPatch]

58. The cost of housing in California is crazy!

Even where we lived, out toward the edge of the Inland Empire. But the main reason we left California several years ago was wildfires and drought.

[cally]

10. Not sure it's tax rates but t housing costs

We moved within California to reduce housing costs and property taxes when we retired

[JanMichael]

11. NC doesn't have a "red tinge". It is a Deep Purple. It still has the 2nd largest rural pop in the US

But Urban has hit 57% and trends Left. So Deep Purple now.

[ProfessorGAC]

59. From When Steve Morse Was In The Band

A year or so back I saw a version with Satriani on guitar. He did just a few dates. They asked him to join the band but he said sorry, no. He had a tour already set up & didn't want to tell his own musicians they'd have to wait a year.

[Vogon_Glory]

13. Mixed results

I can’t help but wonder if Arizona turned purple because of folks from other states. I’m not sure that it hurt Team Donkey’s chances in Georgia and North Carolina.

In other places it has hurt. South Carolina will remain in the grip of the Republicans. So will Tennessee and Idaho.

Florida is hopeless. It’s bright ruby red and will remain that way even after it’s drowned under the Atlantic as deeply as Doggerland.

I have as blind spot about Texas, but then again, I live there.

[doc03]

15. If anything those people leaving Blue states because of tax will vote Republican, so

it is a net loss for Democrats. I am retired, California is a beautiful state I sure couldn't afford to live there. If there
is a one party rule either Republican or Democrat they go to far.

[msfiddlestix]

17. Some years ago, I had regretted leaving the South for California precisely for political reasons.

I left the South because I wanted to live in a "liberal" state. At the time however, Reagan was Governor and I had no idea who the eff he was or what he was about. And though I arrived in one of the most conservative counties in the State, Orange County, it was still far more progressive than where I came from. Relocated to North of San Francisco and I found my "home".

Years later, it dawned on me, if I had stayed in North Carolina or moved to my birth state Georgia, I would have helped populate it Liberal/Progressive children and the next generation etc.

No telling if I would have managed to keep my sanity on the other hand.

But to your question, I see it as a win, and further more, I see it as essential. Too late for me to make that decision, but it's a thing that may naturally occurr in bigger numbers, because the cost of living in California is simply not affordable. My circumstances at this time in my life is not affected by that factor. But it certainly is for my daughter and granddaughters.

Just my perspective.

[WhiskeyGrinder]

18. Lol anti-tax people have been saying this shit for DECADES.

The point of the editorial comes at the end, of course.

Democrats like to brag that high taxes and a hyperactive administrative state allow blue states to provide a wide range of government “services” and thus help to retain residents and attract newcomers. The census numbers say otherwise — and should be a warning to Nevada lawmakers every time they move to mimic the latest fad that gains traction in Sacramento.

[Wicked Blue]

19. Women will leave states with abortion bans

I think that will help reverse the trend.

[jmbar2]

20. Moved from Texas to Oregon due to lack of affordable health insurance

Couldn't afford ACA with all the high deductibles.

Moved to Oregon because they had expanded Medicaid. I'm healthy, but it is well worth the extra taxes to know that I would be able to access care if things go south. Which they eventually do as we age.

Until we get universal healthcare, it's better to grow old in a blue state than a red one, IMO.

[Johnny2X2X]

23. It's not a massive difference

https://wallethub.com/edu/states-with-highest-lowest-tax-burden/20494

Tax burdens between 6% and 12% aren’t really a deciding factor for people. I’d bet weather is a bigger factor.

[albacore]

25. With climate change... a lot of southern states will be all but uninhabitable.

[Tom Rinaldo]

31. Yep. Now is an excellent time to shop for a nice blue state community in a temporate zpne

When it becomes almost necessary it is already too late. Better to settle in before major waves of climate refugees drive up housing costs sharply. It takes awhile to grow roots in a new area. We moved to the Catskills in upstate NY twenty years ago. We were in our 50s then and had more energy than we do now to build a new social network. None of the climate caused emergencies of late have impacted us here, and forecasts for our region are favorable.

[albacore]

39. I understand. We live in WA state, and climate will probably impact us least here...

so, barring earthquakes.....
Our area is blue, blue, blue. Dems on the wet - populated - side of WA win the statewide elections 60%-40%.
Housing prices are astronomical.

[albacore]

26. ...and the economic damage...

[SWBTATTReg]

41. I agree w/ you. Tax laws and such vary so much and people's incomes vary so much, and the

tax laws in each state differ by so much, such as local sales taxes (in MO where I live, the sales taxes are roughly 10% now).

[Johnny2X2X]

42. Good point

There are other fees and taxes those red states use to raise money. Property and income tax aren’t the only taxes. Every state has to run, they get the money from those who live there or from the federal government. Taxes and fees are similar when you add them all up. Even cost of living is muted when you factor in higher incomes in some places.

Another way to look at it is that the worst states for crime, poverty, education, and health care are just about all red states. People factor in a lot of aspects when moving. Quality of life isn’t based on a point or two in taxes as it’s based on other factors.

[SWBTATTReg]

44. Absolutely true, your comment on worst states for crime, poverty, education, health care are...

just about all red states.

A point that I didn't see at first but absolutely true. Thanks for pointing out.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

37. people do that when they get older and no longer need good education, parks, libraries for their kid

kinda shitty. "i no longer want to pay taxes because it doesn't benefit me any longer"

[Yavin4]

38. The result of eliminating the SALT deductions

Blue state residents put up with huge state and local taxes bc they could write them off their federal returns. Trump and the Republicans killed that deduction. Some progressives are for eliminating this deduction, but blue states with huge state and local taxes used that revenue for much needed projects in blue cities and states. It was a mistake to not restore these deductions.

Also, a lot of the people who are moving are probably retirees who can no longer pay huge property taxes.

[Johonny]

50. Yup, the SALT cap is still a huge issue the Democrats have failed to address

It was the only real cost of living adjustment in the tax code, and the SALT cap is hugely unpopular with fiscal conservatives in purple distracts. These are people and districts that are needed to retake house. Blue states get less money back from the federal government and need those high taxes. We finance low taxes in other states. The SALT deductions were fair in my opinion.

Mostly in California, though, the apparent population decline in 2020 was a result of lack of immigration due to the pandemic, and likely massive under count in population due to the pandemic. Most years immigration more than makes up for people leaving California.

In my neighborhood, it's mostly retirees moving here because they got pensions, 401Ks etc . . . they're the ones that can afford the property taxes. Also, if you're old and bought 20-30 years ago, your property taxes are reasonable in California. It's new people that get hammered with property taxes. Lastly, some red states have low income taxes, but high property taxes.

The census was conducted in a very unusual year by a horrible administration, I'd not put a ton of stock in it explaining long term trends in population.

[mnhtnbb]

40. The opinion piece quoted in your link

Is from a right wing news rag that endorsed Trump in 2020. C'mon. Check your sources. EVERYTHING is all about taxes for monied Republicans so it's no surprise that some Republican opinion writer from a right wing paper in Arkansas infers that people are moving from states where property is more expensive to states where property is less expensive because of taxes? Based on what information? None. The Census Bureau doesn't track reasons for people relocating.

https://arktimes.com/arkansas-blog/2020/10/24/did-the-arkansas-democrat-gazette-endorse-donald-trump-well-its-like-bill-clinton-once-said

[True Dough]

52. It doesn't make the phenomenon any less real

There is an outflow from many blue states, and tax avoidance is the motivation for some (probably a majority right-wingers, but some Dems who are struggling to make ends meet -- this thread alone has several comments from our peers who have chosen to move to a red state for varying reasons).

So I'm glad the conversation is being had.

[mnhtnbb]

55. There is an outflow from blue states

is a true statement. You quoted an OPINION piece which speculated the reason for all the moves was taxes. There was no data in the opinion piece to support that speculation or to support any reason at all for why people were moving.

Why post it?

[True Dough]

57. You got me

It's because I'm secretly a troll, a born and bred Republican! I've been exposed!

[tblue37]

46. Moving to avoid taxes sounds like a Republican thing to do, though.

[librechik]

51. They totally deserve what they (WON'T) get. n/t

[Mad_Machine76]

53. Whatever they're gaining in terms of unpaid taxes

Certainly can't make up for the lack of services, infrastracture, and right-wing politics and culture wars, can it? I know that even right-wing states have some blue spots but if the state has a Republican supermajority year after year with the likes of DeSantis and Abbott and divisive culture wars crowding out other essential human concerns, is it really worth it in the end?

[RANDYWILDMAN]

56. WHY are Blue lowering standards !!!! The RED states need to pay more taxes and offer more services

They shit on their residents by not providing enough services. People should expect more from red states and make them raise taxes.


This has happened since Reagan, Repubs want to point how how much taxes are paid in blue states, BUT repubs and have been gutting services in blue and red states since forever They can it what the two santa theory

[tenderfoot]

60. They're welcome to leave.

They may get to pay less but those states will gouge them elsewhere with insurance rates, costs of services, etc.

[ProfessorGAC]

61. Not Sure The Conclusion Is Valid

The states that saw population increases, except for Idaho have much milder winter climates that, for instance, Illinois which was specifically mentioned.
How much of the migration is about getting away from harsh winters.
Worth noting is that here in Illinois there is NO state income tax on retirement income. Zero. So, retirees do NOT leave Illinois over income taxes. Can't go lower than zero.
Don't know about property's taxes, but seniors only pay 2/3rds of the tax rate if they've lived in the same house x years. *I don't know the value of X, although we qualify. But, we've been in this house over 35 years.
The article is short on specifics as to how they concluded the migration is about taxes.