'The big battle is coming': Ukrainian forces prepare for the war's most intense phase

[erronis]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/jan/27/the-big-battle-is-coming-ukrainian-forces-prepare-for-the-wars-most-intense-phase

A good in-depth analysis of the positions of the Ukrainians and Russians at this point and into the future.

The final paragraphs:

Even the most successful offensive on either front is unlikely to end the war. Ukrainians have seen too much of Russia’s genocidal intent in occupied territory to contemplate surrender, while Putin has made victory an existential matter for his regime. (My emphasis)

However, the offensives and counter-offensives over the coming few months could be decisive in setting the trajectory for the rest of the conflict. Ukraine’s success or failure will have an important effect on the stamina of the country’s backers to continue supplying advanced armaments, Kyiv’s strategic advantage.

Moscow’s most important strategic advantage is its vast reserves of manpower, coupled with the cheapness of Russian life for the regime, and so far for the population as a whole.

“Russia’s leadership can afford to throw into battle enormous numbers of people and suffer enormous casualties without social consequences,” Melnyk said. “So that is the biggest threat for us in a long war.”

To cut the conflict short, Ukraine is hoping to deliver a defeat big enough to shock Russia out of its current state of passive acceptance. It is far from clear yet what that will take.

[Xolodno]

1. It gets worse...

Casualties on the Ukraine side have been about the same for Russia. It should be two or three to one, given the offensive is on Russia. The fact with NATO equipment, this is best that can be done, doesn't bode well.

https://thehill.com/policy/international/3729609-milley-provides-highest-us-estimate-yet-of-ukraine-war-casualties/

And allow me to drop a shoe, the Iranian drones Russia is using cost around 20k-50k, and it costs Ukraine a 500k to bring some of them down.

https://www.businessinsider.com/suicide-drones-much-cheaper-launch-than-shoot-down-ukraine-nyt-2023-1

And the West sending tanks just says the situation is getting worse. The fact that Germany was reluctant to send tanks is very indicative of what is going on.

I could go on, but don't see a purpose in doing so as what I state just get me flamed for not stating the status quo.

[erronis]

3. I'm guessing that a successful defense against attacks is always more expensive.

To just use the cost of defense vs. offense, then every nation should lay on its back and let the marauders have a field day.

A carbine with a 9mm bullet costs $100. A shield against bullets coming in from any directions is thousands.

Ukraine wants to preserve its country. Russia wants to control its neighbors. When do we stop the Russia/USSR encroachment?

I think I hear your argument about US hegemony or NATO. As far as I know, NATO has not invaded another country like Russia has, multiple times.


Sometimes it is actually worth spending a whole lot more on defense to repel an aggressor, and to make aggressors think twice about their actions.

[Xolodno]

8. Actually, it should always be more expensive for the agressor.

But its not in this case. A bunch of villagers with small arms managed to push the USA out of Afghanistan and Vietnam. I we could probably call Iraq a draw.

And I know this isn't what you want to hear, but the areas Russia is taking are territories that would prefer or are indifferent to being ruled by Moscow vs. Kiev (remember, they took Crimea basically without firing a shot). But major natural gas fields were discovered there, major industrial zone of Ukraine and would give Russia basically total control of the Black Sea.

If we want to get technical, the Tatar nation should be restored, but good luck on selling an Islamic nation on Europe's door step.

Finally, I don't see how this turns out good for the West. Russia obviously planned to leave Europe and pivot east and that's on the fault of various long term officials that advised both Dem and Repub administrations. For them, it wasn't about a good relationship with the former USSR, they wanted to cut up the nation even more like the Balkans (which NATO did have a major hand in). We should have done what Clinton wanted, pull Russia into NATO, But Cheney and Rumsfeld made sure that didn't happen.

Anyway, I'll shut up now. What I'm saying is what no one wants to hear.

[housecat]

13. Please don't shut up. We need to know more in order to get in Putin's head and under his

reptilian skin. He doesn't think like we do, because he's like a George Santos high on his own sick ego plus a bloodthirsty power. Like tfg he knows no law other than his. He knows no truth other than his own lies. We need to know more and understand.

[Xolodno]

20. Believe me when I say, "You don't want Putin gone".

He's proven to be negotiable.

All his likely successors, are more unhinged than he is. And that scares all of the shit out of me.

[housecat]

26. I don't want to believe that, but I do. They definitely are not human

[cab67]

15. In Vietnam...

...those villagers with small arms were allied with an organized army being supplied by a superpower. And that army fielded war planes, anti-aircraft missiles, tanks, and artillery.

The NVA played an increasingly central role in the Vietnam War after the Tet Offensive, which was as devastating to Viet Cong ground capabilities as it was to American morale.

I see Vietnam as a closer analogy to the Ukraine situation than either Afghanistan or Iraq.

[Xolodno]

18. I can argue that we actually won the war.

The Tet offensive was a major failure.

But public opinion, forced us out. So, it was a loss and villagers made a difference.

I should read Sun Tzu again on the Art of War.....and I'm a pacifist, go figure.

[Arazi]

23. Good post. Doesn't hurt to get a shot of reality

[Bev54]

14. I don't think the statement the "Ukrainian losses are probably around the same"

is concrete proof that they are the same.

[Xolodno]

16. Well...

...your statement vs. a decorated USA General. And they have the prejudice to fudge the numbers for the public.

But as they say, the first casualty in war is the truth.

[lapfog_1]

22. yup.. there are a lot of russian trolls on American web sites.

and don't forget Faux noise from pushing the propaganda...

[former9thward]

17. Maybe the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs can add to this:

Ukraine has also suffered tremendously. You know that there's a significant amount of innocent civilians that have been killed in a result of the Russian actions. The Russians are hitting civilian infrastructure. There's a significant amount of economic damage, a significant amount of damage to the energy infrastructure, and the Russian -- or the Ukrainian military has suffered a significant amount of casualties themselves.

So this is a very, very bloody war and there's significant casualties on both sides. And this is why I say that I think that -- at -- sooner or later, this is going to have to get to a negotiating table at some point in order to bring this to a conclusion, and that will have to happen when the end state, which is a free, sovereign, independent Ukraine with its territory intact, is met. When that day comes, then people will sit down and negotiate an end to this.

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcripts/Transcript/Article/3273771/secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-austin-iii-and-general-mark-a-milley-press-confere/

Anyone who follows this closely knows the Ukrainian causalities have been immense. But some only like good news.

[Kaleva]

24. It looks like you cherry picked some phrases from the article

Last edited Mon Jan 30, 2023, 08:02 AM - Edit history (1)

Nobody knows if UKR casualties are the same as Russia's. Gen. Milley used the word "probably".

As for cost of defense missiles, that is irrelevant to UKR as they are not paying for them . And many of the slow flying drones are being shot down by ground gunfire which costs very little compared to the cost of the drones. The Gepard , a Leopard I modified to carry anti-aircraft guns, is proving to be very effective in shooting down drones. Russia itself is facing a similar problem when UKR launches relatively cheap drones to attack airfields and naval bases

Edit: a major problem Russia faces is that its economy is smaller then that of California's, Texas or New York's each alone and is equivalent to that of Italy's. UKR on the other hand is supported by most of the richest industrial powers. Russia's limited military budget can't be dedicated solely to fund the war in Ukraine without seriously degrading her navy , air force, internal security, and nuclear forces.

[underpants]

2. Spring is fighting season

We think anytime nighttime is an option. That’s because we see it on TV and the American military RULES the night. We have a big advantage at night.

[wnylib]

4. Sure would be a shame for Russia

if their Iranean and other sources of weapons could not deliver them. Or if Russian weapons sites were sabotaged. A weapons crippled Russia could not continue to pursue war. May it be so.

[PortTack]

5. It was reported within the last 48 hrs that the facility where the drones are made was destroyed

I believe a missile attack was the cause.

[wnylib]

6. Great news! More of this. Much more.

[PortTack]

7. The Ukrainian forces are good at destroying Russian armament facilities, airfields they control

And their army bases. It’s not reported on much in the main stream news.

[SergeStorms]

11. It was the Israelis....

bombing the facility in Iran, so there's that to think about now as well.

[Takket]

9. was that the strike Israel made?

[C OH Dem]

10. Praying

I have distant relatives that remain in the Ukraine. Praying for their safety and wellbeing.

[electric_blue68]

19. May they be/stay safe...

I'm m half 2nd Gen Ukrainian-American.

My dad was an only child. His dad came from near Kyiv. Only like when I was in my twenties we visited cousins in Brooklyn who's father my dad said was the "black sheep" of the family. We'd never heard of them previously.
Don't know why I didn't ask my dad what he meant by that. We didn't stay in touch bc of other reasons.

Anyway bc of this I wonder if we had/have distant relatives there.

Plus like some immigrants they had friends who came to the USA/NYC either earlier, same time, or (a bit) later.
So we had an "Aunt & Uncle" irl a sister & brother, and their mom. Some of their people may still be back there.

🌻🇺🇦🌻

[CloudWatcher]

12. I think Russia lost when they didn't capture Kyiv quickly

I'm no expert, but I've been convinced for months that Russia lost the war when their
blitzkrieg failed to take Kyiv.

The only question is how many will die before they get the fuck out. The situation is insane
and we need to do all we can to help drive off the invaders.

And I have good Ukrainian and Russian friends

[Fiendish Thingy]

21. It's probably going to take an artillery attack on a military target inside Russia

Close enough to the civilian population that it can’t be ignored, and the Russian people realize the Putin regime can’t protect them from the consequences of his genocidal war.

I would think losing another 100-200k soldiers might do the trick, but apparently the author of the article doesn’t think so.

[Red Mountain]

25. Another opinion

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/20230122-russia-taken-180-000-dead-or-wounded-in-ukraine-norwegian-army

"Russian losses are beginning to approach around 180,000 dead or wounded soldiers," Norwegian Chief of Defence Eirik Kristoffersen said in an interview with TV2, without specifying how the numbers were calculated.

Norway, a country bordering Russia, has been a member of NATO since its founding in 1949.

"Ukrainian losses are probably over 100,000 dead or wounded. In addition Ukraine has about 30,000 civilians who died in this terrible war," said the Norwegian general.


Closer to 2 to 1. Truth here is going to be found until long after the conflict is ended.....and I think we'll probably never know the death toll on the Russian side. They have no reason to admit anything and short of a whistleblower release of internal documents we'll never see anything.

It's also worth noting that the 'NATO weapons' referred to are only just reaching the battlefield in significant numbers and not yet in the combination of systems that will allow Ukraine to fight as NATO would.

Combined arms maneuver warfare. Coming soon. Or maybe in a year or so. Takes a long time to train troops. And tanks capable of supporting it adequately.

Russia has had a huge superiority in the amount of artillery available to them. Artillery is the traditional killer on the battlefield. Russian supply problems and Ukrainian reinforcements are helping here. One reason for the heavy initial focus on artillery in the Western aid package.

One thing about the Western tanks being supplied I don't hear mentioned often: They are designed with crew protection in mind. Well trained tank crews are vital to Ukraine's continued success on the battlefield.


Overall, the Russian have a manpower advantage but as the battlefield shifts more and more into the modern era as more Western equipment is actually delivered (not promised) those untrained bodies will matter less and less.