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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsAnother Competitive Fight for House Control
Cook Political Report: House Republicans enter the 2024 cycle with an infamously thin 222-213 majority and lots of questions about why they didnt perform better in 2022. But they have history on their side: despite the House flipping partisan control five times since 1994, it hasnt flipped in a presidential cycle since 1952 and hasnt flipped to the party occupying the White House since 1948, when Harry Truman barnstormed against a Republican do nothing Congress.
Still, with 18 Republicans sitting in districts carried by President Biden in 2020 and just five Democrats sitting in districts carried by Donald Trump, there are more than enough vulnerable GOP seats on the table to keep the House in play for Democrats.
The most recent precedents for this cycle might be 1996 and 2012, when Presidents Clinton and Obama faced voters two years after the GOP retook the House. Despite a government shutdown in 1995 and a debt ceiling showdown in 2011, voters opted to preserve a divided government with slightly reduced GOP House majorities. Of course, a true debt limit catastrophe could lead to a greater backlash against Republicans.
https://politicalwire.com/2023/02/02/another-competitive-fight-for-house-control/
GreenWave
(6,759 posts)EarlG
(21,949 posts)History has not been a very good predictor of events recently.
The Magistrate
(95,247 posts)We are well past conventional political life, and judgements based on our former state are of little value.
Past performance may be the best predictor of future behavior...but not tonight.
House of Roberts
(5,177 posts)and there were no extreme efforts to disenfranchise voters, I'd be optimistic.
I haven't heard an explanation of how these 'Biden districts' went to Rs in 2022, and why it will be better in 2024. How many of these famous 18 districts even have the same boundaries as in 2020? No one is speaking up to reassure me.