The Real Story of 2012. No 2008 white Obama voters switched to Romney.
Much of what has been said about this election so far is incorrect, but will probably be the conventional wisdom for years except among the people who actually pore over the numbers.
Turnout was down a lot from 2008, and for almost every group.
(As detailed here: http://sync.democraticunderground.com/1251236045 )
There are reasons for this, of course. Sandy, making it harder to vote, increased narrow emphasis on swing states, and people just not being as excited about Obama as in 2008.
In numbers of voters, rather than %s, Hispanic turnout was not up significantly from 2008 and black turnout and youth turnout were way down from 2008.
There was no demographic miracle. The electorate was quite similar to 2008, but 10 million votes smaller. That missing 10 million votes was pretty evenly distributed. For instance, the black vote remained at 13%, but was 13% of a smaller total.
Here is the Real Story of the 2012 Election:
1) About 7-8 million white people who voted in 2008 did not vote.
2) Obama got about 6-7 million fewer white votes than in 2008.
3) Romney got 1-2 million fewer white votes than McCain.
The most typical voter who sat out election 2012 was a white person who had voted for Obama in 2008.
Those disappointed white 2008 Obama voters did not switch to Romney. They merely stayed home.
A lot of non-racist whites disappointed in Obama chose to sit the election out rather than vote for Romney.
And that is the biggest demographic story of 2012, near as I can tell.
