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apples and oranges

(1,451 posts)
Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:45 PM Nov 2012

FYI, two election gurus were more accurate than Nate Silver and aren't getting as much attention

Wang from Princeton, and Linzer at Votomatic's Election Day Forecast: Obama 332, Romney 206
http://votamatic.org/election-day-forecast-obama-332-romney-206/

Wang was more accurate in his popular vote prediction:

Wang indicated that his model found that Obama would close with 332 Electoral votes.

Wang also called the following popular vote spread:
Final predicted popular-vote margin: Obama +2.2 +/- 1.0%.
Two-candidate vote share: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
This morning, what did we find? Well, if Florida goes to Obama, he'll close out with a strong showing of 332 electoral votes. And as for the popular vote, here's what Wang says in his "morning after" post:

The popular vote is Obama 51.1% to Romney 48.9%. Again, this exactly matches my prediction, which was state polls with a little Bayesian help from national polls.

So even if Silver's magnum opus of prediction wasn't convincing enough to convince people that polls are fair, accurate and analytical, Wang's similar performance should do the trick.

http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-sam-wang-the-neuroscientist-who-beat-even-nate-silver-in-his-election-prediction-2012-11
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FYI, two election gurus were more accurate than Nate Silver and aren't getting as much attention (Original Post) apples and oranges Nov 2012 OP
K&R. CJCRANE Nov 2012 #1
I'm surprised that the polls are still accurate considering cellphones apples and oranges Nov 2012 #2
Math works! I was following Sam Wang too. They all vindicate each other. Jennicut Nov 2012 #3

apples and oranges

(1,451 posts)
2. I'm surprised that the polls are still accurate considering cellphones
Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:51 PM
Nov 2012

Looks like they still have a handle on things, for now.

Jennicut

(25,415 posts)
3. Math works! I was following Sam Wang too. They all vindicate each other.
Thu Nov 8, 2012, 04:54 PM
Nov 2012

And the polls were accurate if we take out Repub leaning crap and Gallup. PPP did a great job.

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