Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsFYI, two election gurus were more accurate than Nate Silver and aren't getting as much attention
Wang from Princeton, and Linzer at Votomatic's Election Day Forecast: Obama 332, Romney 206
http://votamatic.org/election-day-forecast-obama-332-romney-206/
Wang was more accurate in his popular vote prediction:
Wang indicated that his model found that Obama would close with 332 Electoral votes.
Wang also called the following popular vote spread:
Final predicted popular-vote margin: Obama +2.2 +/- 1.0%.
Two-candidate vote share: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
This morning, what did we find? Well, if Florida goes to Obama, he'll close out with a strong showing of 332 electoral votes. And as for the popular vote, here's what Wang says in his "morning after" post:
The popular vote is Obama 51.1% to Romney 48.9%. Again, this exactly matches my prediction, which was state polls with a little Bayesian help from national polls.
So even if Silver's magnum opus of prediction wasn't convincing enough to convince people that polls are fair, accurate and analytical, Wang's similar performance should do the trick.
http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-sam-wang-the-neuroscientist-who-beat-even-nate-silver-in-his-election-prediction-2012-11
Wang also called the following popular vote spread:
Final predicted popular-vote margin: Obama +2.2 +/- 1.0%.
Two-candidate vote share: Obama 51.1%, Romney 48.9%.
This morning, what did we find? Well, if Florida goes to Obama, he'll close out with a strong showing of 332 electoral votes. And as for the popular vote, here's what Wang says in his "morning after" post:
The popular vote is Obama 51.1% to Romney 48.9%. Again, this exactly matches my prediction, which was state polls with a little Bayesian help from national polls.
So even if Silver's magnum opus of prediction wasn't convincing enough to convince people that polls are fair, accurate and analytical, Wang's similar performance should do the trick.
http://www.businessinsider.com/meet-sam-wang-the-neuroscientist-who-beat-even-nate-silver-in-his-election-prediction-2012-11
InfoView thread info, including edit history
TrashPut this thread in your Trash Can (My DU » Trash Can)
BookmarkAdd this thread to your Bookmarks (My DU » Bookmarks)
3 replies, 1048 views
ShareGet links to this post and/or share on social media
AlertAlert this post for a rule violation
PowersThere are no powers you can use on this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
ReplyReply to this post
EditCannot edit other people's posts
Rec (6)
ReplyReply to this post
3 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
FYI, two election gurus were more accurate than Nate Silver and aren't getting as much attention (Original Post)
apples and oranges
Nov 2012
OP
I'm surprised that the polls are still accurate considering cellphones
apples and oranges
Nov 2012
#2
CJCRANE
(18,184 posts)1. K&R.
apples and oranges
(1,451 posts)2. I'm surprised that the polls are still accurate considering cellphones
Looks like they still have a handle on things, for now.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)3. Math works! I was following Sam Wang too. They all vindicate each other.
And the polls were accurate if we take out Repub leaning crap and Gallup. PPP did a great job.