As long as Trump is running for President 1/4th of Americans will essentially be Pro Putin
One eight of Americans are fully inclined to fall into that camp even if Trump never existed, or were he to disappear tomorrow. But the fact that Trump has an established cult of personality around him, that he is a former POTUS, and that he is a favorite to win many if not most Republican presidential primaries, means he will personally galvanize opposition to American support of Ukraine while on the campaign trail, thus strengthening Putin's hand. I am sure Putin keeps that in his calculations, and Putin will hold out hope that America's will to oppose his imperialist expansion will falter as long as Trump is a serious contender for President, with a chance to actually regain that office.
Most American's reflexively are inclined to root for the underdog, for the little guy against the big bullies of the world. It is in our national character to cheer on people fighting against the odds for their freedom and survival. That isn't an absolute, but it is a real tendency. The Ukrainian people for so many reasons (not least of which the fact that they are white Europeans), are intrinsically sympathetic to most Americans. Cultural affinities make most Americans much more likely to identify with Ukrainians than they did with the people of Vietnam, Iraq, or Afghanistan. And unlike in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan, Americans are not themselves fighting and dying in Ukraine, which makes a huge difference in regards to our staying power there.
The war in Ukraine, in the political sphere, will become a wedge issue. Americans will tend to polarize around it further the longer that the war continues. A large percentage of Americans will fall in behind Trump as "America First" Putin apologists, but I call it a wedge issue because the cleavage of opinion on it will not be closely divided. A clear majority of Americans can and must be rallied behind our continued support for Ukraine, for all of the factual and emotional reasons that we can muster, and there are many.
Both Biden's values and political instincts are spot on correct about Ukraine. This is a hill we choose to fight on, that gives us the upper hand and the moral high ground. Support for Ukraine is a banner we can proudly carry into the 2024 elections.
