A global divide on the Ukraine war is deepening

[former9thward]

India announced last week that its trade with Russia has grown by 400 percent since the invasion. In just the past six weeks, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has been welcomed in nine countries in Africa and the Middle East — including South Africa, whose foreign minister, Naledi Pandor, hailed their meeting as “wonderful” and called South Africa and Russia “friends.”

The conflict has exposed a deep global divide, and the limits of U.S. influence over a rapidly shifting world order. Evidence abounds that the effort to isolate Putin has failed, and not just among Russian allies that could be expected to back Moscow, such as China and Iran.

On Friday, a year after the invasion began, the South African navy will be engaged in military exercises with Russia and China in the Indian Ocean, sending a powerful signal of solidarity at a moment the United States had hoped would provide an opportunity for reinvigorated worldwide condemnations of Russia.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/02/22/global-south-russia-war-divided/

[Tetrachloride]

1. Some interesting cherry picking.

[former9thward]

2. Thanks for the thread kick.

[Brother Buzz]

3. India was sorta obligated to go that route fear of losing their sweetheart discounted oil deal

[H2O Man]

4. Recommended.

Thank you for this.

[Tetrachloride]

5. "Evidence abounds that the ....

effort to isolate Putin has failed”

I disagree. President Biden’s trip to Kyiv is leading evidence.

Moreover, where is Pooty.

[bdamomma]

14. Where is Pooty???

hmm.. did anyone catch him on the news on the same day that President Biden was on? On some news sites, they are questioning his health is not good. I hope it's true. He looked kind of puffy in the face.

[Tetrachloride]

15. did you see the video of Pooty's feet

Parkinsons likely

[bdamomma]

17. No

I didn't see his feet, but there are numerous stories about his health and deterioration of it.


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/21450252/putin-health-relapse-lash-out-ukraine/

[Tetrachloride]

18. Quite a selection of sites have it now

its like he’s dancing while sitting

https://html.duckduckgo.com/html?q=putins%20feet

[Emrys]

6. Nevertheless, today's vote at the United Nations illustrated the limits of Russia's support

The resolution, which was overwhelmingly carried, called for Russian troops to immediately withdraw from Ukraine and for a comprehensive and lasting peace. The results:



For anyone using a text reader, that sums up as:

141 in favour

7 against

32 abstentions.

[former9thward]

20. Watch what countries do not what they say.

Very few of the countries voting in favor are respecting the sanctions. Even our southern neighbor, Mexico, rejects Russian sanctions.

[Emrys]

28. I seriously doubt that Mexico is going to be able to bail Putin out of his self-dug deepening hole.

The sanctions so far, no matter how leaky, have had serious measurable effects on Russia's capabilities. That's why it's been squeaking so loud and slumming it with other unsavory actors in search of relief.

But you seem intent on insisting that Russia's prevailing and has growing support whatever counter-arguments are offered to you, so I won't waste my time any further.

[Phoenix61]

7. So out of a 72 countries 9 want to be Putin's friend.

That’s a whopping 12 percent. I wonder how many of them are democracies?

[Tom Rinaldo]

9. That's a little misleading

Only 9 nation's actually voted with Putin BUT the abstentions, for example, included China, Iran, India, El Salvador, Vietnam and seemingly most of Africa. Iran is supplying weapons to Russia, India has increased its imports from Russia by 400%, China has proclaimed undying friendship with Russia and is already providing Russia with non lethal military aid. In this context Russia has made it known to other nations that a formal position of "neutrality" by others, in regard to the war in Ukraine, is welcomed by Russia. Putin is pleased with the abstentions.

[Emrys]

11. I'm not at all clear that any of that provides evidence to support the OP's

claim that the "global divide ... is deepening". It seems surprisingly static.

Russia has its hooks in numerous African states (in a number of which Wagner is deeply involved and horribly exploiting its hosts), quite a few of which pay lip service to "socialism" and have their own problems, and India is a riven country with a very contentious government. Both blocs have a history of being victim to horrible exploitation as parts of empires, which Russia has capitalized on by pointing to the past and claiming to be different, and when it's been able, feeding in "aid" and "investment", effectively soft imperialism that could pan out into harder forms over time. Inasmuch as Russia has client states, they don't seem to be overtly rushing to its side at the moment, and if its efforts to hijack grain supplies from Ukraine are curtailed, it'll have even less leverage. (As an aside, both Africa and India have very active Russian-sponsored troll farms that infest social media and give a flattering picture of Russia's influence.)

China has made its proclamation, but also likely has its own territorial ambitions on Russia's border. How deep its commitment is can be seen by the fact it abstained in the UN vote. As a major global player, this is a crunch point when it could have been expected to make a clear stand. Its potential invasion of Taiwan is also a factor, and maybe a more important one, with an eye on precedent. It's also very active in Africa in terms of investment and soft power, and Russia could be seen as a rival to its long-term plans there.

The fact that there's not even solidarity among the BRICS countries (Brazil, Russia, India, China and, latterly, South Africa) is telling. I've always seen BRICs (later BRICS after South Africa joined) as a cobbled-together confection originating from one economist's theory of future global development, but reality has tried to fulfil that theory, and so far come up short.

[Tom Rinaldo]

12. Good discussion, thanks

I agree that the divide, such as it is, does not so much seem to be deepening as it is solidifying along current fault lines. The fact that India and China remain markets for Russia's energy exports is hugely important to Russia, even though both China and India are exploiting Russia's need for markets to extract bargain prices from Russia.

In addition to the variables you mention above in regards to China, North America is an extremely important export market for Chinese goods, so China has a tight rope that it has to walk. It's need for global trade pushes it away from solidarity with Russia, it's territorial ambitions in regards to Taiwan pushes it toward supporting Russia.

[Emrys]

13. Cheers to you, too.

I agree with all your points.

While you were typing, I added a point about China's long-term efforts at gaining a foothold in Africa. At times, Russia and China's ambitions will coincide, but in a part of the world where so many countries are highly volatile, a potential rival is likely unwelcome, and any division of "spoils" in the longer term is likely to be unbalanced.

I also think that China hasn't been pleased with Putin's crazy Ukrainian adventure, with good reason. It's brought together a very strong coalition of major economies that China may face in time if and when it pursues its own territorial adventurism, most likely in Taiwan. Europe may not have a strong stomach for further involvement in yet another conflict, but Taiwan on its own wouldn't be a pushover, and sanctions would likely sting at an inconvenient point in China's history. Not to mention that China has its own internal problems that constantly bubble under!

[Phoenix61]

16. Doesn't mean India is paying Russia anymore than they were before.

“Indian refiners have been lapping up cheap Russian crude since the invasion of Ukraine caused many buyers to shun the shipments. The sharp increase in December is possibly the result of deepening discounts due to additional sanctions from the G-7 and European Union including a $60-a-barrel price cap.”
Not sure how it’s misleading. The numbers are the numbers and not voting doesn’t count as support. It’s not wanting to piss off Putin.

[Tom Rinaldo]

19. "a little misleading" is a matter of opinion. I didn't say it was false

Most people would overall consider China. Cuba, and Iran, for example, to be "friendly" to Russia, but they all abstained. All of them, in various ways, are supportive of Putin's Russia though they didn't actively vote to back Russia on that resolution. Putin is content when other nations take a position of neutrality when he invades another nation. Russia is not quite as isolated internationally as the vote count seems to indicate on the surface.

[Buckeyeblue]

8. I'm disappointed in India

First, given their relatively recent history of being a forced part of the British Empire, I would think India would be supportive of a country like Ukraine fighting for its freedom.

Additionally, US corporations spend a lot of money in India, contracting for a great deal of IT and other support work.

Maybe the US needs to rethink its relationship with India.

[Kaleva]

10. Even with the increase, trade with RU accounts for less then 7% of total imports

Much of the 400% increase is from the import of oil sold at a discounted price

"Russia was India's No. 4 "merchandise import source nation" in the first 10 months of the current fiscal year through March, after China, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S. The total value of Russian imports came to $37.31 billion, up from $7.71 billion in the same period of the previous year, according to the latest trade figures revealed on Wednesday. This translates to growth of 384%, with Russia accounting for a 6.2% share of the South Asian country's total imports during the period."

https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Trade/India-s-Russian-imports-soar-400-as-U.S.-offers-little-resistance

Another excerpt from the linked article:

"Geoffrey Pyatt, assistant secretary for energy resources, added that Washington sees an opportunity for countries like India in the price cap of $60 a barrel that was imposed on Russian oil by the U.S.-led Group of Seven coalition. The cap is designed to squeeze Russia's ability to fund the war."


This article suggests there really isn't a global divide as the OP tries to claim.

A effective way to combat confirmation bias is to check multiple sources covering a story.

[former9thward]

21. We have been told sanctions and oil caps were going to bring down Russia's economy

for a year now. We were told it would not be able to afford the war. We were told it was running out of military supplies. Like most war propaganda all of these have turned out to be false or clearly misleading. Confirmation bias indeed.

[uponit7771]

22. I don't think anyone credible said Rus sanctions would bring it down in weeks or months. I did say

... the Russian populous would be "felling" sanctions in months and they did.

I know for a fact after 3 years at current pace Russia isn't going to have the economy they did in 21 or 20 ... I'd put money on that.

[former9thward]

23. Let's see what the White House said 9 months ago.

Our unprecedented sanctions are already exacting an immense toll on Russia’s economy and our export controls have strangled Russia’s access to critical technology and the supply chains it needs to sustain its military ambitions. Putin’s war is projected to wipe out the last 15 years of economic gains in Russia. As a result of our export controls, Russia is struggling to replenish its military weapons and equipment.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2022/05/08/fact-sheet-united-states-and-g7-partners-impose-severe-costs-for-putins-war-against-ukraine/

None of that has happened unless someone has a different definition of "strangled" than mine or the dictionary's.

[Kaleva]

24. Who told you that?

Could you provide some links?

Didn't Biden say we are going to support Ukraine for as long as it takes?

https://www.voanews.com/a/biden-to-vow-as-long-as-it-takes-support-for-ukraine-on-war-anniversary-/6968536.html

[former9thward]

25. Well the White House for one.

See post #23 for a link. But i guess you have not seen all the posts on this site saying those things. Funny, they were hard to miss.

[Kaleva]

26. Where in post #23 does it say sanctions will bring down RU's economy

I don't see it.

ISanctions have damaged RU"s ability to wage the war. They don't have the materials and technology to build new tanks and are resorting to refurbishing old Soviet era tanks taken out of storage. Tanks that are woefully obsolete when compared to the Abrams and Leopards UKR is getting.

The leader of the Wagner Group has publicly complained that his troops aren't getting the proper supplies ot artillery support they need thus they are suffering very high losses.

[Wounded Bear]

27. I suspect that many of those 'supporting' Russia are former European colonies...

that are disinclined to support Europe/NATO in much of anything. A quick glance at the list says I'm right.