What China's Collapsing Birth Rate Tells Us

[applegrove]

What China’s Collapsing Birth Rate Tells Us

March 1, 2023 at 6:22 pm EST By Taegan Goddard 20 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2023/03/01/what-chinas-collapsing-birth-rate-tells-us/

"SNIP......

Nicholas Eberstadt: “China is in the midst of a quiet but stunning nationwide collapse of birthrates. This is the deeper, still largely overlooked, significance of the country’s 2022 population decline, announced by Chinese authorities last month.”

“As recently as 2019, demographers at the U.S. Census Bureau and the United Nations were not expecting China’s population to start dropping until the early 2030s. But they did not anticipate today’s wholesale plunge in childbearing…”

“China’s nosedive in childbearing is a silent alarm. It signals deep disaffection with the bleak future the regime is engineering for its subjects. In this land without democracy, the birth collapse can be read as a landslide vote of no confidence in President Xi Jinping’s rule.”

......SNIP"

[vanlassie]

1. Holy Shit.

[roamer65]

2. Children are a high priced showpiece in an urban society.

The birth rates are going fall even further in China as it increasingly urbanizes.

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

16. most of my high paid well educated colleagues only have one kid.

[SunSeeker]

31. This is it exactly. Same here.

And that's a good thing.

[doubleplusgood]

3. This is a good thing

Why does anyone see declining birthrates as a "problem"? Most, if not all, of the worlds environmental problems, from climate change, deforestation, mass extinctions, etc. are directly due to overpopulation. The point of human existence should not be trying to see how many more people we an cram onto the planet before it breaks.

[roamer65]

4. +1000. This ☝️☝️☝️

[ananda]

5. I know.

It is a good thing.

[gay texan]

6. This planet is overpopulated

Declining birth rates are a good thing.

[Yavin4]

7. High population growth is the life blood of global capitalism

Less workers to exploit means that workers gain more power and demand higher wages. And no, AI won't be able to replace the entire human workforce for decades to come.

[Justice matters.]

32. Robots can and probably will.

Unbelievable Robot Dance by Boston dynamics

[irisblue]

60. Their robots creep me out and dance better then I do at the same time

[2naSalit]

14. +1

[Scrivener7]

18. Agree completely.

[Sky Jewels]

22. Yep. Humans are parasites, destroying their host.

[SheltieLover]

25. Absolutely!

[Xoan]

27. +1

I read recently that Japan has the same 'problem'.

[NickB79]

33. It's a bad thing to our global economic system

After all, our economic system demands infinite growth on a world of finite resources. Stagnation, or even worse, recession, is a stake through the heart of every economic model on the planet.

There are a few theoretical steady-state, circular economic models that have been postulated over the years, but they are drastically different than what every human alive today is familiar with.

On paper, a smaller population looks great to combat climate change. But the social and economic damage it creates are substantial, and often much more visible to the average person, in a shorter timeframe, than the damage climate change will cause is.

[yonder]

54. Dr. Herman Daly and Hazel Henderson were two voices for a steady-state economic system

Unfortunately, their views have been largely ignored. In my laymans opinion a steady state model makes perfect sense in a finite world of limited resources bound by sustainability. The longer we ignore those limits, the worse our plunge into a grim dystopia will be. I don't see how we grow ourselves out of it.

Coincidentally they both passed in 2022.

[Zeitghost]

36. It's a good thing

In that it will bring about the fall of the Chinese government in the next decade or maybe two. Russia, Ukraine, Korea, Germany, Italy and more will follow, that's more of a mixed bag.

The US is in a stronger position, largely due to immigration and will the avoid inverted demographic pyramid for awhile longer. The big problem China (and Russia) have is; who wants to immigrate there?

The world will see 8 Billion people soon, it will never see 9. And the fallout is going to be catastrophic for many.

[DFW]

57. Germany will definitely NOT follow

Germany is the number one European destination for immigrants from Africa, middle and western Asia and much of Eastern Europe. When over a million Syrians fled their country’s civil war, they weren’t looking to stay in Greece or Bulgaria. Their destination was Germany. Merkel wisely realized they were coming no matter what, and prepared the country for it. Nowadays, there are Syrians everywhere. Not just Arabs, either. Kurds, Alawites, etc. Now, almost ten years later, they are speaking German to some degree, some even fluent by now. It wasn’t easy, and there were plenty of incidents, but we absorbed a 1.25% population increase virtually overnight, and didn’t collapse.

I don’t know if we could absorb another million person influx as easily, but in the train stations here, whether Frankfurt, Düsseldorf, München, Stuttgart or wherever, the panhandlers are usually German, and the thieves are usually Eastern European or north Indian. Most of the Syrians, like the Turks (Kurds included) before them, are integrating, speaking German, and working.

For that matter, the one of our daughters that came back to Germany for a job has now settled here, and has two daughters of her own now. Both of her girls are now dual citizens of the USA and Germany, as she is. Like our daughters, they are growing up with German as their native language, but learning English in pre-school. The older one, who will be five this year, can actually now hold a conversation with me in English. Their cousin in New York, who will be two in April, babbles in a mixture of German, English and Spanish (from his nanny), maybe Russian and or Hebrew from his dad, no idea. I speak no Hebrew, the other four I can handle.

[Zeitghost]

61. Germany has major issues

Last edited Thu Mar 2, 2023, 01:39 PM - Edit history (1)

The first is demographics. It is quickly aging and does not have the working population to support retirees long term. Immigration can help, but the demographic pyramid is already inverted in Germany and there are not enough young and mature workers to support the rapidly growing number of elderly. https://www.populationpyramid.net/germany/2021/

The second is energy. The German manufacturing model is based on cheap energy from Russia and highly skilled value added workers. The cheap energy from Russia is gone and the workers are retiring.

It will be a mess by the end of the decade (faster if the Ukraine situation is not resolved).

[DFW]

64. Correct to some degree on all, counts, except for the mess by the end of the decade.

Germany has a worker training model that is wide-spread and has a strong motivation to boost it. It is in high gear as far as energy conservation measures go, and is already looking at reducing its energy dependence on Russia from 50% to 9% in (VERY) short order. Though drowning in its overbearing bureaucracy like most European nations, it has a government and population more willing than other EU nations to examine the problem for solutions other than going out on strike every eight days like France, just because the pot isn't as full as it used to be.

The worker demographic isn't as bad as some articles make it out to be because the younger immigrants are highly motivated, and are extremely interested in getting educated. If they ever were to ditch their system of eternal bureaucrats (Beamten) here, and make the jobs of their civil servants performance-based, Germany would be the dynamo of the EU everyone used to think it was. In my town here, outside of Düsseldorf, go into any business and you will hear, all the way up to top management or ownership, accents of Poland, Turkey, Syria, Afghanistan, Russia, Romania, and almost anywhere in Subsaharan Africa. But their children speak flawless, accent-free German, and think of themselves as nothing else, even if their papers aren't completed yet. Your statistics don't tell you everything. Learn German and come see it here on the ground. Speak with the people. If you want to see a place in slow decay and decline, go visit some of the smaller towns of Ohio, Missouri, Alabama, etc etc etc. Here in Germany, you will find some places like that, I'm sure, but not many.

[IronLionZion]

38. Someone has to pay to support elderly retired people

People are living longer in many places because of advances in health care and lifestyle improvements.

[usedtobedemgurl]

45. It says it is a bad thing for China/communism...

At least the excerpt, above, says it is bad for Xi. It shows people feel bleak in that country, so they do not have children. I wonder if they also filtered in the fact they have been on Covid lockdown, this some births would decline anyway. Even so, bad news for China/China’s government. Good news for earth and possibly democracy.

[LiberalFighter]

63. Totally agree.

In the last 50 years in the USA the population increased by about 100 million.

[Igel]

8. Can't agree with the last sentence that was excertped.

"In this land without democracy, the birth collapse can be read as a landslide vote of no confidence in President Xi Jinping’s rule."

Birth collapse is strongly associated with increased prices and increased education (meaning increased ability to make more money), moving away from traditional agrarian models of economics and tradition.

Most of her colleagues thought a friend insane when she said that she was quitting after 15 years as a teacher. She was expecting and said that at that point her child care expenses would exceed her take home income, so it was cheaper to quit than work.

A few years later, enough of her kids are of elementary school age that she could come back to work, but opted not to. A certified science teacher, she's teamed up with some other certified teachers (social studies, math, English) to home school a "pod" of homeschoolers. That started pre-COVID and continued with little interruption through COVID. They don't get paid but are the lead homeschoolers and really enjoy it.

[Renew Deal]

9. The article this is based on is actually very interesting

It’s very anti-Chinese government but it’s reasoning for the decline is logical on a human level. It basically says that the collapse in births is a form of civil disobedience. Are people so disillusioned that they’re refusing to have kids? That would be something. More importantly, are the living willing to take action to change the situation?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/02/28/behind-china-collapse-birth-marriage-rates/

[Lovie777]

10. Well losing over 1 million or more population with COVID ......

also pre-existing conditions from COVID didn't help.

[WarGamer]

11. A single decree from Xi and they'd triple their birth rate in 24 months...

The current news re: Chinese Birth Rates is meaningless.

[Renew Deal]

12. What would the decree be?

[WarGamer]

13. reproduce successfully?

The Chinese population growth rate is... what the Chinese gov't wants it to be.

[Zeitghost]

40. The problem

Is China is going to need 40-65 year old skilled workers, those are the people who supply the economy. And it takes... 40 years to grow them.

This demographic collapse has been coming for decades since the one-child policy and can not be overcome with out immigration and what skilled workers want to move to a country ruled by an inept dictator? Not many.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

46. No. China is very rapidly going to shift to an aging population with no chance of in-migration. nt

[AZLD4Candidate]

49. Absoultely incorrect. Children here in China are expensive, the cost of childbirth is solely on the

parents. state and private insurance DOES NOT cover it or pre-natal.

education is expensive
uniforms are expensive
textbooks are expensive

high school is expensive
tests like IGCSE/A-Level/IB/IELTS/TOFEL/AP are expensive
clothing is expensive

Children are priced out of too many people's budgets and most go into poverty after having children.

[WarGamer]

55. So if Xi were to order people to have more kids... everyone would ignore it. OK.

[AZLD4Candidate]

56. Actually, yes. But don't let my living here since 2008 except for two years minimized your

preconceived notions.

[meadowlander]

59. Lots of people ignored the One Child Policy.

In China most people go along to get along but aren't rabid ideologues. They'll comply superficially on anything that doesn't actually cost them anything. But as soon as it impacts them personally (as in having to pay to support more than one kid for 18 years) they do pretty much what they want as long as the chance of getting caught is low.

If they say "we're trying to have more kids but it's just not working" what is the government going to do?

I lived and taught there for five years and talked to hundreds of people and this was the attitude that I observed over and over again.

[Disaffected]

15. A ban on contraception and abortion to start?

Same as the repugs want...

[AZLD4Candidate]

50. Won't happen here. Abortion services are advertised on bus side ads here.

Condoms are readily available and inexpensive.

[Silent3]

17. While the Chinese decree to cut the birth rate was very effective (too effective, apparently)...

...it's going to be a lot harder to force people to have children they don't want to have.

Maybe not impossible, but when you consider just how draconian the methods would have to be if mere incentives don't cut it, it's a daunting task even for a very brutal totalitarian regime.

[WarGamer]

21. While I haven't worked there in more than 10 years...

the CCP has tentacles in nearly everything.

There are "minders" in businesses, in apartment buildings... lots of people asking each other how's life and how's the efforts going at having children. A young couple, no luck after 2 years, he might get called to the factory office and be asked if he's somehow unhappy in his job, if he needs a few months off, without pay?

Oh if the CCP wants a population explosion, they'll sure as hell get it.

People don't get it.

The entire country is controlled from dawn to dusk. EVERYONE knows that their first duty is to the State.

[Silent3]

26. I'll grant you that you have more personal insight into this than I can have...

...but I'd still think from what I've seen there must be some limits. The Chinese government does seem to have finally caved to public discontent over strict COVID policies, even in the face of the huge outbreak that this is causing.

[subterranean]

19. The CCP does seem to like setting quotas.

I can easily imagine them setting baby quotas for married couples.

[XorXor]

53. I think they've been trying to reverse the damage done by the one child policy

but haven't really had much success with it. Also, even if they could take some extreme actions to force it, there is often times some unintended consequences, such as what happens when all the sparrows are exterminated.

[Silent3]

20. China, Korea, Japan all have very low birth rates right now, well below replacement rate

China's politics and domestic discontent might play a part, but clearly there's more going on that crosses national boundaries.

One of the greatest enemies of fertility is affluence. Pretty much the only places in the world with high birth rates are among the poorest, especially in Africa.

The rest of the world is in a state of population decline and is facing aging populations with fewer young people to support their elderly citizens.

As scary as AI and robotic automation are as a threat to jobs, we might desperately need that non-human help in a few decades.

[Sky Jewels]

24. Also, climate change is scaring the crap out of young people, as well it should.

My mid-20 kids are doubting that they'll ever want to bring babies onto the planet.

[StevieM]

28. I kind of feel like the relationship between affluence and fertility is shaped like a U.

As people become wealthier, they have a lot fewer children. But when your income goes up to very high levels it becomes easier to afford more children. At that point you can afford a bigger house, better education, and child-care.

Of course, not too many people around the world can reach that higher level. So the U is theoretical in most places.

Realistically, the only solution to the birth rate problem is immigration. But people don't want their countries' racial demographics to change. So instead they pay the price for refusing immigrants--although they don't know that they are paying it. They don't associate their problems and impending problems on the consequences of racism.

To be fair, I have heard that Japan has been getting better about accepting immigrants.

[Silent3]

34. I think these days even wealthy people aren't strongly driven raise large numbers of children

There's a cultural shift that comes with prosperity too, where children aren't viewed as a personal safety net to support you in your old age, and social status no longer derives from making a big demonstration of your fertility. People get more fulfillment (and on the negative side, time suck) and sense-of-self out of what they do for a living than from raising a family.

And we have lots more to distract and entertain ourselves than fucking.

[Phoenix61]

23. This is a direct result of China's One Child policy.

Sons were valued but daughters were not. They quite literally did this to themselves.

“In China, there is a name for unmarried men over 30. Shengnan, meaning “leftover men” have yet to find a wife – and in a country with a growing gender gap, that’s a big problem.

By 2020, it’s estimated there will be 30 million more men than women looking for a partner.”
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20170213-why-millions-of-chinese-men-are-staying-single”
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20170213-why-millions-of-chinese-men-are-staying-single

[ecstatic]

48. Holy incel! nt

[meadowlander]

58. Also several generations were raised on propaganda that it was immoral to have more than one child

so even given the option now, it doesn't surprise me that a large number are choosing to stick to that.

The other factor is the number of hours people have to work to scrape a decent living in the cities and the difficulty of affording a place large enough for a family. It's not unusual at all for young professional couples, who are expected to work 60-80 hour weeks every week, to be too exhausted to raise their children. They send them to the countryside to be raised by their grandparents until they are school aged and only see them during holiday periods and a few weekends a year.

[judesedit]

29. Also, a result of them only allowing 2 children per family at one time

And under-valuing female births. I believe preferring abortion rather than letting them be born. I may be mistaken, but I don't think so. It just came back to bite them in the ass.

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

30. Right now, most countries in the world have below replacement birth rates.

This link will get you to a link for a lot more information on this topic: https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-1-d&q=countries+with+below+replacement+fertility+levels

For what it's worth, I understand that 2.1 births per woman would equal zero population growth. That .1 is to account for those who die before reproducing.

I am convinced that there are already far, far too many people on this planet. The true sustainable population is probably no more than 1 billion, and we passed that number over 200 years ago, in 1804. I don't think a slow, but steady decrease will matter, or make a difference. I think there is going to need to be a serious crash, one that might make the Black Death in 14th century Europe look like a day at the carnival.

For all the hysteria about Covid, and even though every death is something of a tragedy, it has had zero impact in population growth. Indeed, if you look at population growth charts, the ONLY thing that has actually reduced population was the Black Death. And the population number recovered in 50 years. Scary, actually.

[PatrickforB]

35. I had seen this. But here's the thing - birthrates in a lot of countries are going down.

According to Wiki: Although still growing, the UN predicts that global population will level out around 2086, and some sources predict the start of a decline before then. The principal cause of this phenomenon is the abrupt decline in the global total fertility rate, from 5.3 in 1963 to 2.4 in 2019.

I'd say two things here:

First, I believe that our species, sapiens, has a species-wide consciousness. The world is getting ready to cast us off because we have abused it so badly. It has always been amazing, wondrous, that this earth can even support life, and our cancer of capitalism is threatening the very habitability of the planet. Oh, I know the bible says that earth will abide, and I agree. It will abide whether we can stall and reverse climate change and preserve the planet's livability for our grandchildren, and all other life, OR it will abide as a smoking cinder, devoid of life, still circling the sun. That's the way it is.

Second, again to the predatory doctrine of profit-over-people-every-time capitalism we've set up in the industrialized world leads to a sense of meaninglessness among our kids and grandkids, and even some of us. Look at all the people engaging in addictive behaviors to escape from their bleak existence.

Alcoholism, drug addiction, addictions to gambling, gaming, sex, extreme sports, speed, you name it. Because as a way to organize ourselves, human greed doesn't hack it. We need to organize around human need. And the predatory capitalism that buries our grandkids in student debt before they even start out, the people who die from disease because they cannot pay Wall Street greed lizards for their 'care,' and let's not forget the oceans choking with plastics. We live in a plastic-wrapped consumer culture that has elevated things and money over everything else.

I won't mention God because I know many of you do not believe. But my point is this: Whether you believe in a creative force or not, a better color TV simply does not add the meaning to life people are created to seek. Nor does power or wealth. I mean, look, Trumpy shits on a gold toilet. But you know what? When he dies, he won't be able to take anything with him. Nor will any of us.

Now, DeSantis is removing books from bookshelves, and dictating to schools and even the Disney financial empire what they can and cannot say. How in the world does that add any meaning to anything?

Sure, Biden has been an excellent president. He has. The most progressive since FDR, they say, and I think that is true. But even the most enlightened, progressive policies - things that actually take care of people instead of spending over half our budget on 'defense' won't actually add any meaning or purpose to our lives.

So what will? As a species, we sapiens need to find that ASAP. Or else we will become 'the former inhabitants' of this planet.

[llmart]

41. Excellent post.

"a better color TV simply does not add the meaning to life people are created to seek. Nor does power or wealth. I mean, look, Trumpy shits on a gold toilet. But you know what? When he dies, he won't be able to take anything with him. Nor will any of us."

If only most Americans would truly understand this simple fact. I've actually lost all hope that they will. I do think that the younger generations "get it" moreso than some.

My parents were both very nonmaterialistic and they made a huge point of teaching their seven children this message. All seven of us have lived lives of nonmaterialism (no, we don't live like monks) and those of us who are still alive are in our 70's and 80's. When you get to that age, if you aren't introspective enough to see that all that stuff you thought would make your life worthwhile, then I'll never understand you.

[PatrickforB]

43. Totally! You've got to live, for sure, and there's nothing wrong with

being reasonably comfortable.

The trick is just not being attached to it. Not speaking for you, by any means, but that is true for me.

[llmart]

44. Absolutely.

I know that most people who get to know me personally think I'm a bit "different", mainly because I'm a woman and aren't women supposed to just love, love, love shopping and spending money? (Ugh. I can't think of anything I hate more than shopping.) Also, I was a degreed, white collar professional and they know I'm financially comfortable, so why don't I just buy a brand new car every three years? What is wrong with me? Their thoughts don't bother me, but I find it interesting that if you don't follow the herd and do what everyone else does or live your life as prescribed by our culture, you're an enigma.

Unless I actually tell people my philosophy a stranger wouldn't come in my house and think I'm weird. I have a nice place that I own, I have a bed, a sofa to sit on, a tv, a computer, a car. I choose not to have a cell phone except for a very basic one for emergencies. I choose not to have cable tv but I have an antenna and I pay for Netflix. I own next to no jewelry and what I do own isn't worth much. I joke with some of my neighbors who wonder why I don't have a security system like all of them do and I say, "Oh, I think if someone were to break in my house to rob me they would be sorely disappointed. They may even decide to bring some of their stuff IN."

[Rebl2]

37. I would

also think that thousands of young people died from Covid over the last few years, so no babies. Maybe many babies died too for all we know. I am sure they would never tell us the truth about how many people died. I don’t think we even know for sure how many died in the US. The nursing home my Mom is in is having another Covid outbreak, but not like 2020 and 2021. A lot fewer people, but it’s still worrisome.

[Tree Lady]

47. Considering it started there do we really know

how many died? No. They aren't going to tell us, it could have been much worse than they said. I mean we saw them hosing the streets with disinfectant in the beginning.

And there were chinese factories in northern Italy which is why Italy got hit so hard.

[eallen]

39. South Korea's fertility rate has collapsed even more

What does that tell us?

I'm leery of explanations specific to a nation, for a trend that is happening in many nations.

[Zeitghost]

42. In large part

It's the move from rural agrarian societies to modern urban society. Children are free labor on the farm, they are an expensive luxury in the city.

[AZLD4Candidate]

52. As expensive as it is to have a child in China, it's more expensive in Korea

Women in both countries are putting off marriage and children to start careers first.

[XorXor]

51. I've been hearing a lot about this not only with China, but other countries too.

I've seen a few talks with Nicholas Eberstadt before about this. I gotta say he gives me some Commander Joseph Lawrence vibes from handsmaid's tale. Like, he's mostly a well intended expert/scientist/whatever, but he gives cover to some pretty crazy ideas on how to handle the issue. I dunno, I really just base that on a interview he did for The Hoover Institute. It started out interesting, but it went kinda weird. Which actually thew me, because I was confusing Hoover Institute with Brookings. After I look up Hoover Institution it then made sense.

I know opinions of Sam Harris are probably mixed here, but there is an interesting discussion about this with Peter Zeihan and Ian Bremmer that might be worth listening to.

Zeihan has a book titled "The End of the World Is Just the Beginning" which is an interesting read. Although, I often times found myself asking "what is the evidence to back up these assertions?" while going through it.

[treestar]

62. a while ago they had the one child policy

and that led to too many boys. So the relative lack of women could contribute.

It takes a long time, but there is ground for optimism about freedom. It is too difficult for regimes to isolate their people they way they could before the internet and increased international travel.