NC-GOV: The most important governor race of 2024

[RandySF]

TAR HEEL STATE OF MIND — For all the focus on the presidency and the battle for Congress in 2024, arguably one of the most interesting — and consequential — races next year will be the battle for the governorship of North Carolina.

Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is term-limited after winning a pair of close contests in 2016 and 2020 — first narrowly unseating then-Gov. Pat McCrory and, four years later, beating then-Lt. Gov. Dan Forest to secure reelection. The state has been politically confounding, something that will likely continue in 2024. McCrory’s one term is the only time that a Republican has held the governorship this side of Y2K. But on the federal level, it has been incredibly frustrating for Democrats. 2008 brought narrow wins for both Barack Obama and now-former Sen. Kay Hagan, but that was the last time a Democrat won a statewide federal election. Most recently, now-Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) won an open-seat race by about 3 points last year, and Joe Biden lost to Donald Trump by less than a point and a half in 2020.

North Carolina’s status as that elusive battleground dream for Democrats will hang not only over the presidential contest next year, but the race to replace Cooper as well. After a decade-plus of success there, Republicans are itching for another go at the governorship without Cooper on the ballot.

The race to replace Cooper takes a new turn on Monday, when Cooper is set to deliver his annual State of the State address. The person giving the GOP response: Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson. (In North Carolina, the governor and lieutenant governor are elected independently, and Robinson won his first term in 2020.) Robinson has long been assumed to be running for the governorship in 2024 — and he has publicly hinted as much — and Monday’s response will be one of his biggest platforms ahead of his expected run. (You can watch both Cooper’s address and Robinson’s response Monday night at 7 p.m. courtesy of PBS North Carolina.)



https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-score/2023/03/06/the-most-important-governor-race-of-2024-00085590

[blm]

1. National Dems screwed us out of Senate seat in 2020 and 2022.

They put their support behind Cal Cunningham’s and Cheri Beasley - two candidates good on paper and dull and boring on the campaign trail. That mattered most to the court races - we lost the courts badly in 2022.

National Ds thought Jeff Jackson was too young. Jackson is the best campaigner in all of NC - Dem or Rep - and would have beaten Tillis or Budd easily. Hard to forgive Schumer for that lapse in judgement.

[RandySF]

2. National Dems did not have much money in 2022.

And the 2020 Dem. blew his own campaign up.

[blm]

3. That wasn't the issue, though, Beasley camp claims it is.

Beasley is a wonderful person who is a terrible campaigner. For a Dem to win statewide in NC you have to have a compelling campaign trail persona and boundless.energy.

National Dems chose poorly and NC suffered major losses of a senate seat AND the courts because they passed on THE BEST CAMPAIGNER IN NORTH CAROLINA.

[RandySF]

5. Primary voters ultimately chose.

[blm]

10. He dropped early to not divide the party.

He won’t go negative on fellow Dems, even in a primary.

You can dismiss me all you want if it makes you happy, but I am 100% right - Jackson is the best campaigner in NC, Rep or Dem. National Ds chose poorly and we lost control of the courts and seats in the assembly - 2022 was crucial to this state.

[Hortensis]

7. As was just pointed out, your best campaigner lost in the Democratic

primaries. Actually, just looked and he withdrew pretty early -- in December 2021.

I was drawn to read your post by your belief that the national Democratic Party SCREWED NC's citizens. That's not normally something we want to do, and as a DSCC contributor I feel obliged to apologize.

I do think, though, that it would be reasonable to bring at least some of the blame for NC's presumed victimization home -- from Chuck Schumer to your fellow NC Democrats who preferred other candidates.

On to 2024. The only current prospective Democratic gubernatorial candidate I've ever heard of is Josh Stein, who sounds like a promising start. For now, go AG Stein!

[blm]

8. Yes. He withdrew because national support

went to Beasley and he will never act to divide the party. Jackson would have won that primary - he put the Dem party ahead of himself, knowing full well his own young age and that he can run again.

Schumer chose badly.

[Hortensis]

11. Well, sad if it was a mistake, but NC's a grownup (state)

and ultimately is responsible for its own actions, including mistakes. We know the voters' role, but I'm not going to ask where the state Democratic Party was in this -- water under, etc.

[W_HAMILTON]

6. "Everything I don't like is the fault of the DNC."

[blm]

9. No. That's not my style, at all.

And never has been.

I am being 100% factual.

[Polybius]

12. Another thing is that in Purple to Light Red states like NC, we need to run more moderate candidates

It was obvious that Budd was going to win against her.

[JanMichael]

14. If I remember right Jackson said no because Shumer told him he needs to sit in a basement calling

Donors and for nothing else for the first few months.

[MyMission]

4. Turnover in NC Democratic Party leadership. 25-year-old defeats incumbent chair.

I was very pleased to see this headline last month, and hopeful. Stein is a strong candidate, and the Democratic party leadership is invigorated.

I agree the 2024 NC governor race is crucial, and the Dems here are preparing now. I live in a red rural area (60/40) and would love to see Dems on the ballot. I believe our new chair will appeal to younger voters, which we really need. Note that Clayton was elected despite not having the backing of top party leaders here. I feel Clayton will do for NC what Abrams did for GA.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article272413388.html

"A 25-year-old activist has ousted an incumbent who had backing from the state’s top party leaders to become the new chair of the North Carolina Democratic Party.

Anderson Clayton, the Person County Democratic Party chair and president of the state party chairs’ association, was elected Saturday to a two-year term as party chair by the N.C. Democratic Party’s Executive Committee. Clayton defeated Bobbie Richardson, 73, a former state lawmaker who had become the N.C. Democratic Party’s first Black chair in 2021.

“We’re ready for someone exciting because that’s what it will take to win statewide elections and do better in places where we’ve lost ground,” Carl Newman, a Durham Democratic leader who voted for Clayton, said in an interview Saturday.

Clayton had campaigned on the need for change following last fall’s Democratic losses in state races. Democrats lost control of the N.C. Supreme Court, were swept in the N.C. Court of Appeals and lost seats in the General Assembly.

But Richardson entered Saturday with the backing of Gov. Roy Cooper, state Attorney General Josh Stein and all seven Democrats in the state’s Congressional delegation. Voters at Saturday’s virtual meeting heard a video from Cooper making a last-minute pitch for Richardson.

“We will move forward because we have to — the stakes are too high,” Richardson tweeted Saturday. “The gavel is now in @abreezeclayton’s hands to unite us & to beat those who are stripping away our freedoms & our rights. I’m honored to have served NC Democrats & we will continue to show up...."

“Our party wanted to have young leadership and look toward young leaders,” state Sen. Mike Woodard, a Durham Democrat, said in an interview Saturday. “We wanted to find people who appealed to young Democrats. While they’re relatively young, they’ve all been engaged in party activity for quite some time.”

REINVIGORATING RURAL VOTERS
Newman said it will be important having a person from a rural part of the state serving as party chair. He said they’re also expecting that Clayton will be a more active party chair.

[Hortensis]

13. RW population/voter growth has been keeping NC from flipping blue,

like Florida often so close but no cigar. But also too often poor Democratic-side turnout.

Anderson Clayton sounds like a smart cookie, and a solid liberal Democrat. Maybe those who do vote reacting to yet more devastating losses -- with, again, low Democratic turnout -- by choosing a 25-year-old to lead the state Democratic Party will turn out to mark a pivot point.

Go get 'em, Clayton!