OpenAI's own study, just released, on jobs safe or at risk from ChatGPT

[highplainsdem]

NDTV article on this study by OpenAI, Open Research, and the University of Pennsylvania:

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/is-your-job-safe-this-openai-study-lists-professions-that-could-be-replaced-by-chatgpt-3879562

Here's a list of occupations safe from ChatGPT:

Agricultural Equipment Operators
Athletes and Sports Competitors
Auto Mechanics
Cement Masons
Cooks
Cafeteria Attendants
Bartenders
Dishwashers
Electrical Power-Line Installers and Repairers
Carpenters
Painters
Plumbers
Meat, Poultry, and Fish Cutters and Trimmers
Slaughterers and Meat Packers
Stonemasons

-snip-

List of occupations at risk:

Mathematicians
Tax Preparers
Financial Quantitative Analysts
Writers and Authors
Web and Digital Interface Designers
Court Reporters
Simultaneous Captioners
Proofreaders
Copy Markers
Accountants
Auditors
News Analysts
Journalists
Administrative Assistants

-snip-

In general, the more education and higher income you have, the more likely you are to have AI replace you. Especially if you work in finance, education, journalism, engineering, and graphic design.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has admitted there will be a lot of job losses

https://economictimes.com/tech/technology/chatgpt-to-eliminate-a-lot-of-current-jobs-openai-ceo-sam-altman/articleshow/98772295.cms

but he says, "We can make much better ones."

He doesn't say who "we" will be, though, and the only new job being created by AI so far is prompt engineer, someone who supposedly can get better and quicker results from AI using smarter prompts than most people can think of.

Sane people would look at what OpenAI is predicting here and think it sounds catastrophic.

Sam Altman will be fine with it, as his AI monsters yank the rug out from under our economy and society.

He has his own hideout prepared if things get too bad: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217685127

And as I posted after seeing another news story on him today

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217746655

he has another company that wants to scan the irises of everyone in the world and prepare to give us crypto as a universal basic income after AI takes our jobs.

[Yavin4]

1. I don't think so.

The ATM didn't replace the bank teller.

[highplainsdem]

2. Not completely, but most banks have a lot fewer tellers than they

used to.

And there's a huge difference between AI and an ATM.

[Yavin4]

4. There are more branches and more banking hours than when I was a kid.

Back in the 70s before ATMs, my mom had to stand in a long line on Fridays to cash her checks. Today, even with ATMs and direct deposits, you can find an open branch opened on Saturdays.

Why? Tech improvement increases business activity. Opens up new possibilities. The same will be true for AI. There will be new jobs and new careers which we don't even know about yet. For example, the internet created the web developer profession.

[GenXer47]

5. AI will need babysitters and a link to the physical world

Accounting isn't exactly what people believe it is. It's a narrative, mostly. I'm not sure AI will ever grow beyond its childlike interpretation of its inputs, which is 100% honest, for one. Is anyone honest with their taxes???

[W_HAMILTON]

29. Yeah, when I saw my profession on that list, I got a bit nervous...

...but then I remember how terrible even some of the scan-to-input options were for standardized forms like W-2s etc. and I'm not so worried. Think someone making 10,000.00 and the scan program accidentally inputting it as 1000000.

I'm sure AI -- at least more advanced AI than most accounting firms currently use -- will put a lot of "data entry" type workers out of a job or cause them to be utilized elsewhere or in a different manner (e.g., reviewing the AI-generated input for accuracy), but accounting in general is about so much more than just entering numbers. Hell, in a lot of cases, you have to know the tax code and rules and regulations to even know what number to enter... Maybe AI will get there eventually, but I don't see that happening anytime in the near future (read: not in the next decade and probably even longer than that).

[highplainsdem]

7. ...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/banking-100000-jobs-wells-fargo-analysts-automation/

[Yavin4]

11. Alarmist headline designed for clicks.

Don't rely on legacy media for the truth.

[highplainsdem]

12. LOL!

[BannonsLiver]

30. Somebody saw War Games or Terminator one too many times.

[bucolic_frolic]

3. The self-thinking AI bot will be better than the self-driving car, right?

Already they're generating investment advice, gleaned from experts, analyzed, and aggregated. But at any given moment, candlestick charts, a 500 year old Japanese creation, gives all that is known about price, volume, and sentiment. So why is AI going to improve on that? What if they don't pick the right experts?

[tinrobot]

6. The word "computer" used to refer to humans sitting in rooms doing math.

There were rooms full of "computers" calculating artillery tables in WWII. Most of them were women. Shortly after the war, they were replaced by the electronic computers, such as the ENIAC, which did those same calculations many times faster.

And the very first computer programmers? Many of them were actually women who worked as "computers" during the war. The task of programming computers quickly evolved into one of the highest paying professions out there.

I would consider that to be a good example of a "better job."

Looking at it a different way, I guess Turing, Von Neumann, Mauchly/Eckert and other computing pioneers also could be seen as "monsters" who yanked the rug out from under our 1940's economy and society.

Except they didn't. This won't, either. Enough with the hyperbole.

[highplainsdem]

8. The study was done by Open AI.

[tinrobot]

17. Well aware. I read the report before you even posted.

They're just stating the obvious - things are going to change.

Just like they've changed many, many times before. We survived these changes and will survive again

My advice - learn about it and get in front of it. That's what I'm doing.

[BannonsLiver]

10. The OP watched Terminator one too many times.

[highplainsdem]

15. Your fantasy about that is so amusing. What part of this being

OpenAI's own study don't you understand?

[BannonsLiver]

16. I understand you are completely unobjective on this subject.

[highplainsdem]

20. You understand absolutely nothing if you believe that.

I've been posting about the problems with AI and what experts are saying.

Including people with OpenAI.

Why are you not concerned about the problems it's already creating and the ones even Sam Altman admits it will create?

[BannonsLiver]

22. Every one of your AI posts are framed around fear and danger.

But I guess that’s because you’re so objective about it🤷?♂️

[highplainsdem]

25. Sam Altman says he's scared.

[BannonsLiver]

26. Really?

Well why didn’t you say that up front. That changes everything.

[highplainsdem]

28. Why are you so happy with ChatGPT that you don't care about

the harm it does?

[BannonsLiver]

31. Oh I wouldn't mistake pointing out an irrational obsession with not caring

[highplainsdem]

32. You're wrong again in characterizing my posts, but I'll give you props for at least not

posting your standard wrong "You must have watched Terminator too often" reply.

[Yavin4]

13. Thank you.

Most businesses don't even use simple data visualization software, and they're just going to flip over to AI over night?

[SheltieLover]

9. Kicking for Visibility

[slumcamper]

14. Disruptive and potentially dislocating--economically, socially, politically.

Don't take this lightly.

From the abstract of the actual study:

Our findings indicate that approximately 80% of the U.S. workforce could have at least 10% of their work
tasks affected by the introduction of GPTs, while around 19% of workers may see at least 50% of their
tasks impacted. The influence spans all wage levels, with higher-income jobs potentially facing greater
exposure.

This is a notable impact, disruptive at the least, and potentially dislocating. It may take time, but consider your kids and grandkids.

The professional middle class may eventually wither, and employment opportunity shrink to performers, manual trades, and service sector. Implications for the broader economy, e.g., unemployment, widening economic inequality, concentration of wealth and power, and attendant social and political effects remain a question. And public education, nd how to prepare youth for this new world...where to even begin?

[honest.abe]

18. From working with ChatGPT and other AI tools I can say the risk to jobs is rather overblown.

I would say the biggest jobs risk will be to those individuals who refuse or dont know how to take advantage of AI tools in their work. Those who become proficient in utilizing AI will way outperform those who are not and those lessor performing folks will be at risk.

[Johnny2X2X]

19. Learn to code

That meme always struck me as misplaced. I am a systems engineer in aerospace. Coding is one of the easiest things to automate and that’s exactly what these AIs can do for you. If you are able to describe the interfaces and desired behavior well enough, ChatGPT can give you the code you need.

[highplainsdem]

21. I'm already seeing lots of tweets from people saying they can just use

GPT-4 or ChatGPT now, don't need to hire people for that coding.

[Renew Deal]

23. Looks like the Data Analysts/Scientists are also in trouble.

[highplainsdem]

33. I ran across a column suggesting accountants could

become data analysts instead, if replaced by AI. Or engineers or lawyers. Written by someone who obviously hadn't read about what AI can do to those professions.

[Yavin4]

35. Oh noes!!! A column telling people to get into law.

The legal field is D-E-A-D. It has been D-E-A-D for decades now. Except for a few grads from top law schools, most law grads, including those that have passed the bar, struggle mightily to make ends meet.

Stop overreacting to hyperbolic media that doesn't understand anything other than raising your anxiety levels.

[Yavin4]

34. Who do you think writes the codes to program the AI?

Who do you think formats the data that fed into the AI?

[Renew Deal]

24. Here is the original research, which is interesting.

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.10130.pdf

I disagree about accountants. People will always want a human to cut them a break.

[highplainsdem]

27. Thanks!

[old as dirt]

36. Mathematicians?

Seriously?



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