The Two-Decade Red State Murder Problem Widening Red States Murder Gap

[LetMyPeopleVote]

There is far more crime and deaths in red states vs blue states

Link to tweet

https://www.thirdway.org/report/the-two-decade-red-state-murder-problem

Republicans have made crime a major selling point over the past several elections. In 2020 and 2022, they ran ads accusing Democratic candidates of wanting to “defund the police”– a position held by only a handful of fringe Democratic officeholders. In October 2022, one-quarter of ads from Republican candidates and PACs focused on crime. Republican-aligned Fox News aired, on average, 141 segments on crime across weekdays in the two months leading up to the midterms. In the week after the midterm, their coverage of violent crime dropped by 50%.

In March of 2022, we released a report that found murder rates in 2020 were 40% higher in Trump-voting states than Biden-voting states. In this follow-up report, we studied homicide data going back to 2000 to see if this one-year Red State murder epidemic was an anomaly. It was not. Despite a media narrative to the contrary, a wide and widening Red State murder gap has spanned the past two decades.

In this study, we collected homicide data from 2000 through 2020 for all 50 states from the Center of Disease Control Wonder’s National Center for Health Statistics Mortality Data. Data is based on death certificates collected by state registries and provided to the National Vital Statistics System. We chose CDC data over FBI data because it’s more up to date and does not rely on voluntary reporting from counties and states. All states are required to report mortality data to the CDC; they’re only encouraged to report crime data to the FBI. The United States Department of Justice has acknowledged that CDC data is more accurate. (There were four states with several years of missing data–New Hampshire, North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming. In these instances, we relied on FBI numbers from the Uniform Crime Statistics.)1 To allow for comparison, we calculated the state’s per capita murder rate, the number of murders per 100,000 residents, and categorized states by their presidential vote in the 2020 election, resulting in an even 25-25 state split.

We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded the murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this century. Cumulatively, overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23% higher in Trump-voting states. For the past 21 years, the top 10 murder rate states have been dominated by reliably red states, namely Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Missouri. Even when we removed the county with the largest city in Trump-voting states (and kept them in for Biden-voting states), murder rates were still significantly higher in these red states.

[Initech]

1. Conservatives have just morphed into a dangerous death cult.

Their god isn’t Jesus. Their god is the almighty dollar and the AR-15.

[SWBTATTReg]

2. And in my opinion, its getting worse...in recent days, I've seen stories of...

-neighbor shoots and kills neighbor over running leaf blower;

-A fight that erupted over snow shoveling allegedly led to a Pennsylvania man shooting two of his neighbors to death, authorities said.

And I'm sure that there are many other crazy stories out there. Some people are just too gun-happy in my opinion, and quick to bring the gun to the forefront, harm others.

[Hekate]

3. Neighbor1 asked neighbor2 to stop shooting because baby was sleeping. Neighbor 2, drunk, came....

….over and shot 5 people with his mass-casualty weapon. Just happened in the last few days.

[TexasDem69]

4. This doesn't seem like a particularly helpful way to view crime

According to CDC stats for 2021 three red states had the most murders per capita, then you have New Mexico, then a couple more red states, then Illinois, and then Tennessee and Maryland with the same homicide rates. But Idaho, North Dakota, Iowa, Utah, Nebraska and Montana are among the states with the lowest homicide rates. In fact, only Maine had a lower homicide rate than Idaho. In short, some of the states with the lowest murder rates voted for Trump and several states with the highest rates voted for Biden. https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/homicide_mortality/homicide.htm

[scipan]

5. ...

We found that the murder rate in Trump-voting states has exceeded the murder rate in Biden-voting states every year this century. Cumulatively, overall murder rates since 2000 were on average 23% higher in Trump-voting states.

[TexasDem69]

6. Again, not a helpful way to view murder rates.

This appears to lump together every red state and argue red states are more dangerous, when that’s simply factually untrue. Some red states are more dangerous, some aren’t.

What’s the point this study is trying to impart?