Politico: White House believes massive Dem bailout may be needed to pass debt ceiling compromise

[brooklynite]

White House aides privately estimate they may need to deliver as many as 100 Democratic votes to ensure an eventual debt limit deal can pass the narrowly divided House, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

The informal projection is driven by lingering doubts among Biden officials over House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ability to convince the vast majority of Republicans to back a bipartisan agreement — and the expectation that dozens of the GOP’s most conservative members are poised to rebel against any sign of a compromise.

Top Democrats have long anticipated that a debt ceiling deal would require some level of Democratic support, with Biden stressing for days that any viable solution to the standoff must be bipartisan. And with negotiators still haggling over specifics of a legislative compromise, the people familiar with the matter cautioned it’s still too early to tell exactly how many Democrats will be needed to help McCarthy secure a majority, or even if a deal will be reached.

But the realization that the party might need to supply a sizable percentage of the House votes to avert an economically disastrous default — not to mention passage in the Democratic-controlled Senate — has increasingly shaped the White House’s negotiating strategy. Aides have hardened their stance against certain GOP-proposed budget cuts and social welfare restrictions for fear of sparking a revolt among Democrats they may ultimately need to support a dea

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/05/24/white-house-votes-debt-ceiling-deal-00098487

[Just_Vote_Dem]

1. People still think we're going to have a bipartisan compromise?

[David__77]

2. Hopefully this article is nonsense.

Sounds like political suicide brewing.

[617Blue]

3. If Biden caved and said he's OK with the GOP bill, the GOPers would then vote against it

They are not going to vote for anything that Biden would put his name to. When will people realize this?

[RKP5637]

4. Absolutely. Whatever he does they will reject, even if it's theirs originally.

[brooklynite]

9. How do reach that conclusion?

The point is that the REPUBLICANS will split over whatever deal Biden and McCarthy come up with; Democrats will have to fill the gap.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. From the article - "The speaker has operated by the so-called Hastert rule"

This is what the GOP does time and time and time again when they have the Speaker's gavel - only letting legislation that has a "majority of the (GOP) majority" supporting it, move forward. But in this case, their "majority" is thin, not just in numbers of "all" but they have that whole set of loons who we saw wielding their power during the 15 votes that it took McCarthy to get the gavel (and he did so only because at that final vote, a bunch voted "present" to lower the threshold, allowing him to barely get enough to surpass what Jeffries received).

[EarlG]

7. To the folks immediately reading this as "Dems cave" ...

I don't think that's the story -- the fact is that while McCarthy knows he can't allow a default, he has no room to maneuver here because there are too many crazies in his caucus who would be just fine blowing up the economy.

Therefore Dem votes are likely going to be needed to pass a debt ceiling bill. But in order to get those votes, McCarthy is going to have to get rid of all the austerity crap that Republicans have put into their bill, because Dems won't vote for it. The more austerity crap he gets rid of (and the more he's seen to be dealing with Democrats) the fewer Republicans will vote for it, and therefore the more Dem votes he will need.

White House aides privately estimate they may need to deliver as many as 100 Democratic votes to ensure an eventual debt limit deal can pass the narrowly divided House, two people familiar with the matter told POLITICO.

The informal projection is driven by lingering doubts among Biden officials over House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s ability to convince the vast majority of Republicans to back a bipartisan agreement — and the expectation that dozens of the GOP’s most conservative members are poised to rebel against any sign of a compromise.

This gives Democrats a lot of leverage to make sure that the bill isn't too harsh:

...the realization that the party might need to supply a sizable percentage of the House votes to avert an economically disastrous default — not to mention passage in the Democratic-controlled Senate — has increasingly shaped the White House’s negotiating strategy. Aides have hardened their stance against certain GOP-proposed budget cuts and social welfare restrictions for fear of sparking a revolt among Democrats they may ultimately need to support a deal.

(snip)

The White House has rebuffed Republican efforts to expand work requirements for the Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program and the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, as well as attempts to impose substantial spending cuts to a range of domestic programs, two other people familiar with the discussions said.

Whatever they come up with, it's a major effort, and they're going to have to make sure that most of the Dem caucus, including the progressive wing, is on board:

White House officials have largely brushed off progressive criticism of their negotiating strategy, privately believing that the terms of any compromise will be far better than the left’s worst fears, the people familiar with the matter said. But aides have recently taken steps to assure lawmakers they’re not taking votes for granted, briefing Senate Democrats earlier this week on the parameters of the negotiation and keeping in close touch with key House members, including progressives.

It's possible (perhaps likely) that whatever is in the final deal will contain SOMETHING that is going to be distateful to Democrats, but at the same time, if Democrats can force the Republicans away from their insane austerity plans and pull off a deal it could seriously wound McCarthy and divide the Republicans even further. McCarthy's hold on his leadership position is already incredibly weak, and if he deals with Dems it could set off another round of civil war in the GOP.

[Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin]

11. Agree

That was my impression of the article. McCarthy has to be the weakest speaker of my lifetime, maybe weakest ever.

[Cha]

14. I hope Kev knows he has to

pay for DT's Debts.

This worrying about our Social Security Checks is making me crazy.

Pres Biden has said that he will Not let the US Default.

Thank You!

[Johonny]

15. Yup, this is what happened under Ryan and Bohner

Any reasonable GOP budget ain that the White House might have agreed to is unacceptable to the majority of the house republicans. Thus, Democrats are needed to pass anything. Which generally means Dems will wait for a clean debt raise. The moronic debt ceiling dealing is what sank Ryan and Bohner. That McCarthy wasn't better prepared knowing that is hilarious.

[flamingdem]

8. Fingers crossed for Joe to

pull this one out and nick the repubs along the way.

[Martin68]

10. Why is this termed a "bailout?" Sounds more like a vote. Isn't a bailout financial assistance for

failing banks or companies?

[quakerboy]

12. Basic bargaining position:

Democrats want to repeal all modern tax cuts on anyone making over 2m per year.

We might be able to compromise by whipping up enough moderate votes for a clean debts ceiling bill if Republicans prove they can provide the other votes to make it happen.

[maxsolomon]

13. Dems hold the majority in the Senate

So there were going to be Dem votes for this regardless.

McCarthy needs 3 Repukes in addition to his dumb ass to get to 218.

[Jakes Progress]

16. Here's the end result of the "negotiations".

If we have a debt ceiling rise, it will be because Democrats and the White House gave in. All the information about the "negotiations" talk about Biden getting mccarthy to just tone down the nastiest of the republican demands. I hear nothing about increasing revenue or rolling back tax breaks.

There will be no republicans doing the right thing. The worst of them are either stupid, sadistic pigs or outright agents (paid or blackmailed) of putin. The rest or cowardly asses who know they will never be able to get real jobs after the magats primary them.

putin is losing in Ukraine, but he is winning in the US. All that the republicans do only serves the kremlin's long term goals.

Biden should have stuck with his original statement that he would not negotiate over the debt limit. He will be giving in for the rest of his term.

[OhioTim]

17. Don't Give In

PERIOD

[James48]

18. I moved all my retirement money out of stocks

Two days ago. I’m sitting in 100% cash (G- fund) right now with my federal retirement savings.

It’s going to get very, very ugly over the next several weeks. The GOP has zero clue as to what they are doing, and the stock market is going to take the brunt in the next couple of weeks.

I hope I’m wrong, but I think 25-35% down in a month is not out of the question.