New West Virginia Senate poll: Manchin vs. Justice (Justice up by 22)

[Polybius]

In a hypothetical 2024 U.S. Senate matchup in West Virginia, the latest ECU Poll shows Governor Jim Justice with a significant 22-point lead over incumbent Senator Joe Manchin, 54% to 32%, among registered voters in the state (with 13% undecided). The ECU Poll also finds Governor Justice with a job approval rating of 57% (with an overall net positive job approval rating of +28 percentage points; 57% approval compared to 29% disapproval). Senator Manchin, in contrast, holds a job approval rating of just 33% (with an overall net negative job approval rating of -26 percentage points; 33% approval compared to 59% disapproval).

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[Scrivener7]

1. Not good.

[NewHendoLib]

2. Apparently no one likes Manchin

Kind of like Cinema ( the bad movie)

[Jose Garcia]

11. It's more likely that WV voters no longer like Democrats

Last edited Fri Jun 2, 2023, 08:16 AM - Edit history (1)

Manchin is 'only' down by 22 points, which isn't that bad considering that Biden lost the state by about 38.

[Amishman]

37. This, Manchin is as far left as is possible to run in WV

The state is extremely red now

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Look on the bright side

AZ and CA will both have new, solidly progressive senators, and the Dems will be rid of Manchin and Sinema’s obstruction forever!

[Polybius]

7. That's not a bright side

Dianne Feinstein was just fine in Cali, no need for someone to the left of her, I just want someone healthy. As for AZ, sure, she's trouble, but Kyrsten Sinema votes for every federal judge already and is a pretty solid vote on social issues.

The loss of Manchin will hurt a lot more. He's been a solid vote on every federal judge, and supports Biden about 70% of the time. Justice will be a disaster.

[Fiendish Thingy]

8. I'm not worried.

I’m looking forward to the election of newer, better Democrats to the senate in 2024 and beyond.

[Polybius]

9. I don't think whoever replaces Dianne Feinstein will be better

Although I get the health concerns. Ohio worries me too.

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. I have to disagree.

To compare apples to apples we must compare the DiFi of the present with the current Dem candidates, not DiFi’s entire career.

Any of the potential nominees will be light years better than DiFi is currently.

I lived in the SF Bay Area all my life until moving to Canada in 2012- I’m quite familiar with DiFi’s career and political evolution.

[BlueCheeseAgain]

12. The 2024 map is awful.

So bad that our best pickup opportunities are Texas and Florida.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Indeed, it's not looking good for retaining the majority

Which is why I’m focusing on the joy I will experience with a Manchin and Sinema-free senate, regardless of who holds the majority.

[Polybius]

16. I guess it all depends on how progressive you are

I'm not very far-left at all.

[Celerity]

23. There are no actual 'far left' members of Congress. What Is considered 'far left' in the US is just

bog standard social democratic policy. The persons considered radical lefties by some only are pushing for what most other core western nations already have in place. The US ideological scale is breathtakingly slanted to the right compared to most all of the advanced world.

People like Manchin and Henry Cuellar would be solidly in the middle to the rightward side of of the centre right to right parties, and a vast majority of the Rethugs would be off the scale hard right or even kicked out of many of the hard right parties in the core EU nations.

Here in Sweden, POS like openly nazi-lite Gosar, batshit cray fools like MTG, Lil Gunny BoBo, and a shit tonne of state RWNJ legislators etc etc would have likely faced hets mot folkgrupp (inciting racial/ethnic hatred) charges, and even if not, they would have DEFFO been booted from the hard right Sweden Democrats (SD) and probably ended up in the openly white power AFS (Alternativ för Sverige), who are not remotely close to being in the Riksdag after splintering off from SD in 2015 to 2018 (the founders where kicked out of SD in 2015, and formed AFS in 2018).

[Polybius]

24. Cori Bush is up there

Perhaps not the world definition of "far-left", but too far-left for me.

[Celerity]

26. I have not seen her or anyone else actually elected to Congress advocate for something that would

make people here in the core EU nations say 'Wow, that is in line with only our far left'.

We have actual hard socialists and communists (including revanchist Stalinists) here in our governments (usually not in any real power at least) who want the state to seize control of all the major means of production, for instance, and/or do away basically with all national borders, and/or seize all wealth over a very low amount, sometimes as low as 1 million euros.

Because the US has a non proportional representation form of constitutional governance, it defaults to a 2-party system, which means at least one of the 2 parties (in the US model atm it is us Democrats) is going to become a quite a bit disparate on certain issues when you take the furthest left of the Dems (I will use Bush in the House and Sanders in the Senate for this example) and compare them to furthest right of the Dems (definitely Cuellar in the House and Manchin in the Senate).

Also, because of the right-shift in terms of the US ideological scale, you have many politicians in the US who are labelled moderates/centrists or mild conservatives who would be considered solid middle (not hard) of the road right over here. Many of the centre left in the US would be considered a bit centre right here if they maintained their stances (granted, that would not happen in some cases I think) over here.

Here in Nordics and elsewhere, we have many centre-right to straight up right politicians who take multiple stances that would get them labelled commie pinko scum by a majority of the US Rethugs, and labelled as left progressives (maybe even far left, if we are talking about their support for a form of single payer (we use a form of the Beveridge model here in Sweden) healthcare and/or or banking regulations, etc) on those issues by the more centrist/moderate Dems.

[Demsrule86]

30. And where will they come from? Have you looked at the Senate map? It is dire for us...

I hope we can keep the Senate...but it will be difficult unless we have some unforeseen upsets. And even then, it is likely to be either tied or up by one or possibly two votes. I am hoping Roe might help. Time will tell.

[Fiendish Thingy]

34. If we're lucky, WV will be the only state to flip

OH, NV, and MT will be razor thin, but hopefully break for Dems.

[TeamProg]

38. "no need for someone to the left of her," Huh???

She voted NO on federally decriminalizing POT, approx. 18 months ago.

She's a moderate.

Voted for the Iraq Invasion.

[moonscape]

21. Without Manchin we wouldn't have

a majority and last session an even split. I’m lost as to why losing Manchin is good riddance. Numbers matter.

[Fiendish Thingy]

28. The benefits of a Manchin and Sinema-free senate may not manifest until 2026

Or even 2028.

The senate map for 2024 was always going to be tough, although recent polling suggests the odds are improving, even with Justice taking Manchin’s seat.

We need a courageous Democratic senate that will fearlessly abolish the filibuster, expand the court, codify Roe, protect voting rights, and pass a bunch of progressive legislation.

Tester and King have been resistant to killing the filibuster, as was DiFi, in addition to Manchin and Sinema. Klobuchar and Gillibrand have come around since Dodd. I’m not sure where Coons stands.

If we don’t get there in 2024 or 2026, then 2028 under president Whitmer will have to do.

[W_HAMILTON]

36. But we have Fetterman now, and if we get Gallego, we can lose Manchin and Sinema...

...and still control the Senate in 2025 if Biden/Harris win reelection.

So, yes, numbers matter and the number that matters most right now is Manchin is probably almost assuredly going to lose reelection based on this (yes, early) poll. His undercutting Democratic agenda items by catering towards conservatives appears not to have helped him one bit. I can understand his predicament given his state, but he went above and beyond that at times.

If anyone was wanting to send money to help Manchin out, I would say instead send that money to Gallego or some other potentially vulnerable Democrats in red states (e.g., Tester, Brown) that actually still have a very good shot at winning reelection.

[brooklynite]

22. I see, and Jim Justice won't be WORSE at obstruction?

Who will Justice vote for as Majority Leader? How many of Biden's Judicial nominations will he vote for?

Unless you imagine we can defeat Cruz or Scott, the BEST outcome will be that we'll be down a Democratic Senator.

[Fiendish Thingy]

29. If WV is the only Dem seat to flip, Justice won't be able to obstruct legislation

Dems will still have 50 seats. Committees will be split evenly, and so confirming judges will be trickier but not impossible (see 2021-22 Biden confirmations).

If WV is the only seat to flip, and Dems regain the house, Biden could resubmit the original BBB bill, and it could pass through reconciliation without any obstruction from the soon-to-be-retired Senators Sinema and Manchin.

That’s not only the BEST outcome of losing a Democratic senate seat, it would be a GLORIOUS outcome!

And then all of Manchin’s sweetheart pork hostage deals can be rescinded.

[Demsrule86]

31. First of all, we had California when we didn't have the majority so that changes nothing. And

Arizona is a toss-up especially if Sinema runs as an independent. The election for Biden was close...she could siphon off enough votes. And Sinema caucuses with us so despite all that, we will still be down one Senator. It will be 50-50 again.

[Fiendish Thingy]

35. AZ will not be a toss up for senator in 2024.

Especially if Kari Lake is the GOP. Nominee

[JohnSJ]

3. Is this a surprise from a state who has a high approval for someone who tried to overthrow the US

government?

They are unhinged, and definitely unAmerican

[brooklynite]

5. Perhaps OUR REVOLUTION will put up a candidate?

I keep being told disengaged voters are just waiting for a “Real” Democrat.

[Jose Garcia]

10. Just ask Paula Jean Swearengin how that worked out for her in 2020

[Demsrule86]

32. Untrue...and you undoubtedly know. The country is at best moderate and IMHO it leans

right at the moment. I am hoping we will get some help from Roe and Republican idiots sounding off about how they want to cut and/or end Social Security and Medicare...Medicaid and the ACA-and of course contraception and all abortions.

[BumRushDaShow]

6. Here is an interesting story I just saw today

DOJ sues son of West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and his coal empire over millions in unpaid fines

Published Wed, May 31 202311:44 AM EDT Updated 2 Hours Ago

Kevin Breuninger
@KevinWilliamB

The Department of Justice on Wednesday accused the son of West Virginia Gov. Jim Justice and 13 coal companies the younger Justice owns or operates of failing to pay millions of dollars in penalties for environmental violations. Jay Justice, the governor’s son, and those companies under his control, have been cited for over 130 violations and owe more than $5 million in civil penalties, among other unpaid fees, the DOJ alleged in a civil complaint.

“Our environmental laws serve to protect communities against adverse effects of industrial activities including surface coal mining operations,” Assistant Attorney General Todd Kim of the DOJ’s Environment and Natural Resources Division said in a press release. “Through this suit, the Justice Department seeks to deliver accountability for defendants’ repeated violations of the law and to recover the penalties they owe as a result of those violations,” Kim said.

The elder Justice, who is reportedly the richest person in West Virginia, has been accused of meddling in his family business empire as governor even after vowing to separate himself from the companies upon taking office. Those businesses have also faced accusations of not paying their bills.

The Republican governor last month launched his campaign for the Senate seat held by Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin. Justice’s campaign insists the governor does not run the family companies. Manchin, who could face an uphill battle to win another term in the deep-red state despite his incumbent status, has not said if he plans to run for reelection.

(snip)

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/05/31/jim-justice-son-coal-companies-sued-by-justice-department.html

[Polybius]

15. It won't matter to them

They love him for some reason.

[BumRushDaShow]

20. They are all "birds of a feather"

(in terms of where their $$$$ comes from)

It might come down to Manchin remaining a (D) and running as an "anti-Biden" Democrat (like some did to Obama) or doing an Arlen Specter and switching to the opposite party and running as that (which would be head-to-head against Justice) or do a Sinema and become an (I) or decide to fold and make lots more $$$$ outside of Congress.

[Elessar Zappa]

17. Justice will win.

I’m glad Manchin is there for judges but I won’t lose any sleep when he loses.

[Maru Kitteh]

18. He'll have some free time to spend with his yacht to comfort him.

He'll be setting sail on a warming sea full of microplastic. Disasters he ensured would go on. He did this for his own enrichment.

The man has no honor at all.

[Kid Berwyn]

19. Manchin needs to remember his Truman.

“Given the choice between a Republican and someone who acts like a Republican, people will vote for the real Republican all the time.” — Harry S. Truman

[Demsrule86]

33. Not true in WVA that is for sure.

[Emile]

25. Is Manchin even running for reelection? I thought he

was going to run for governor. If he is running for reelection, we need to primary his ass with a Democrat.

[liberalmediaaddict]

27. Rumor is he might run for President

On the No Labels party ticket. Which would be a nightmare.

Manchin and Sinema see the writing on the wall and seem desperate to somehow stay in power.

Both have low approval ratings and are afraid to lose their Senate seats next year.