Rick Wilson: There are dangerous times ahead. Remain vigilant.

[DinahMoeHum]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1667128684707479552.html

2016 called, and it wants its magical thinking back.

For the love of God, don't imagine this will be easy. Don't fall victim to the same seductive pull of "The X case/charges/investigation/indictment will finally take Trump out.

None of this makes him less likely to win the GOP nomination, and in some ways makes him more formidable for 2024 against Biden.

There's no substitute for doing the hard lifting of the campaign, of unifying the pro-democracy movement behind Biden, of working smart valences with persuadable GOPers (it's a small, but vital segment we at @ProjectLincoln moved in 2020 and 2022), and caving Trump's head in every single day.
The GOP primary is the press trying to make a horserace out of horseshit and Jeff Roe scamming Ron for $200 million. The rest is all noise.

Work for Trump's final defeat, and break the crapulous, violent, low movement he leads.
Don't count on miracles.

Do the work.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

We need to get out the vote in numbers too big to ignore and too real to steal.

GOTV and Count. Every. Vote.

[GreenWave]

1. You hear that Cali, Ill and NY this time around? GOTV!

Go for 90,000,000 plus! And win back the House from the lunatics.

[Chi67]

8. Ummm

We in Illinois always go blue. Not sure what you mean here.

[GreenWave]

11. The 3 states did not really have GOTV.

NY by not doing perhaps lost several congressional seats.

But those 3 states should do that even if they will clearly demolish the GOP wihtout doing it. So nationwide the vote against the GOP will be huge.

Right now all we hear is 73,000,000 or 74,000, 000 Trumpsters. Biden got over 81,000,000 and it is hardly ever mentioned as a counterpoint. Perhaps 90,000,000 will drive home the point.

Pile it on! Pad the lead!

[murielm99]

44. There are huge swathes of red in Illinois.

I live in one of them. I worked hard in DuPage County when I lived there, but demographic change made the difference.

I work hard where I am right now. However, I fell down on the job in one of the most recent local elections. A complete asshole won by six votes. I can and will do better. We can use more Congressional seats.

[Casady1]

10. 40,000

votes in Wisconsin, GA and AZ and Trump would have won in 2020.

[GreenWave]

14. Fight back against voter suppression and deletions.

This makes things appear closer than what they should have been.

[Casady1]

15. I live in GA

and the worry is apathy.

[DeeDeeNY]

58. Apathy is a concern all over the country

Unfortunately the Maga crowd is hung-ho.

[Traildogbob]

38. My biggest fear

Is 70 percent can despise this asshole, and still what they are planning to do with votes against trump is terrifying. The SC is nearing a decision on the N.C. Moore case giving legislatures power to overthrow results and send their hand picked electors. Trump can easily be appointed President again. Even if convicted. DeSatan and his pardon threats are sickening. This country is in deep shit, with traitors stacked thick in the government they want to destroy.

[onecaliberal]

13. California is always blue. The San Joaquin valley and Orange County are red. That won't change,

The maps are rigged.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

36. OC is purple now.

But we may lose Katie Porter because she's running against Adam Schiff to replace Feinstein in the Senate.

Her potential replacement for CA 47 Dave Min, Dem, did win a race for State Senate - from Orange County.

[erronis]

37. I thought I read recently that OC is hueing towards purple...

Maybe just in selected races. Still, if somewhat that's a major change.

[onecaliberal]

61. If that is the case it will be great. We will see.

[raffishtenant]

69. It's turned purple crazy fast around here

My sweetie and I live in Orange. (Yes, there's an actual city by that name in Orange County...little known fact!)

The shift really has been dramatic since around 2016, and in 2018, Democrats won all seven U.S. House seats based in Orange County. Our own district was safely blue in 2020, so we had plans to drive to several of the more competitive districts nearby for canvassing...but we finally contracted breakthrough Covid at the worst possible time, and there was just no way.

In the end, Republicans won back two of those seven seats. It was close, though, and next year we have no intention of missing out!

[liberal_mama]

42. I went to apply for my absentee ballot last night and apparently they won't let people vote by mail

anymore in New York. The pandemic exemption is gone from my county's election website. Probably due to the republicans who want high risk people to be unable to vote. That's not good. As an immune compromised person, I can't go into a busy polling place. I'm planning to call on Monday to see if I qualify for ADA accomodations due to having diabetes and 4 different autoimmune disorders.

[SunSeeker]

57. WTF? How can NY let Republicans suppress the vote?

WTF is going on in Albany?

[liberal_mama]

60. I know! I couldn't believe it. I did try to apply for a disability ballot, but when I clicked on it,

the only disability listed was blindness so I backed out of it. I'm hoping this is just some crazy glitch with our election board website and when I call on Monday, it will be okay. I live in a county in New York where Covid is usually way higher than other areas too so it would be very dangerous for me. The repubs don't want people voting by mail apparently.

[summer_in_TX]

65. Do let us know what they say.

New York of all places.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

2. The biggest danger I see in 2024 is "young voters stay home."

They don't like Trump but from what I see they don't particularly relate to Biden.

[Eliot Rosewater]

4. Barely more than one and four voted after Roe v. Wade under age 29

So yes.

I don’t have the link at the moment but 27% of voters under age 29 voted last time which means even after ROE was overturned only one in four in that demographic voted.

Might be our fault for not making it clear what is at stake

[Algernon Moncrieff]

71. This was their grandmother's fight.

This generation will have to learn that lesson.

By 2024, the ramifications of red state heartbeat laws and 12 week restrictions will be more clear.

[yardwork]

6. The young voters I know like Biden more now than in 2020.

But we need to turn out the Democratic vote in every demographic, every race, every state.

The DNC made some big mistakes last year. They abandoned some states and races and poured money into others. It was not a good strategy.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

72. The DNC needs to be running "How to be Stacey Abrams" training camps.

There is untapped potential in places like Mississippi.

[CrispyQ]

7. Or they get all idealistic & vote 3rd party.

When I was young, I was one of the few of my peers who voted every election. Most would turn out for presidential elections, but off years, I was one of the very few.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

70. That's a potential wild card in this election cycle

There hasn't been a serious "third party" candidate since Perot in '92. John Anderson in '80, and George Wallace in '72 (cut short by the attempt on his life). I could see scenarios here - everything from someone trying to take half out of the middle to someone trying to take up the MAGA cause if Trump's legal woes cause the Republicans to go a different direction.

[Pacifist Patriot]

79. I think the best thing that could happen would be a GOP attractive third-party candidate.

I'm all in on a split conservative vote!

Meanwhile full steam ahead for Dem GOTV efforts for Biden.

[Think. Again.]

52. Thier biggest issue...

The only serious issue that I've read about the young vote and Biden is that they feel betrayed from what they see as his backing away from the strong environmental stance he campaigned on last election.

If his administration isn't ready yet to make an all-out push against fossil fuels, they might consider just continuing their silence on that topic during the '24 campaign period.

[yardwork]

3. The DNC needs to put a 50-state strategy in motion.

We need Democrats running for every office, up and down the ballot. This will help turn out the vote.

We can't afford to ignore states or races.

Our ads need to hit hard.

[Casady1]

12. waste of money

We are not carrying Oklahoma and many other states.

[Hekate]

18. Howard Dean made the 50-State Strategy work, lest we forget

[Casady1]

25. That was like two centuries ago.

[Qutzupalotl]

32. It got us Speaker Pelosi in 2006.

[Casady1]

34. That is still two centuries ago.

[Qutzupalotl]

46. Exaggerating to make your point

undercuts your argument and makes you look unserious.

[Casady1]

51. What Howard Dean did in 2004

i to me is not relevant anymore. Our entire country was different than it is today. We no longer have the luxury to spend money in marginal districts. We barely won the last presidential election. three states are razor thin. AZ, GA and Wisconsin are up for flipping to the red column.
Biden has no emotional attachment to the populous. He is a good president and quite effective but Trump has an very big emotional attachment and these people are really going to canvas and phone bank. I am worried that we won't be as dedicated.

[thatcrowwoman]

77. As long as you are "as dedicated" and doing your part, you don't need to worry, Cassidy1.

“Trump has a very big emotional attachment and these people are really going to canvas and phone bank”?!?!? Seriously? “These people” are going to canvas and phone bank?

Nah. I’m not buying that. They’ll be parked in front of FQX “news” or some like screen, or trolling online, but actually showing up and contributing to the work? MAGA-RepubliCANTS? Nah.

Worrying is an energy suck. We can acknowledge the worry, sure. Then focus that energy back to what we and ours are doing to grow the vote for 2024. Each one Reach one. You’ll feel better.
🕊thatcrowwoman

[GoneOffShore]

19. It's not always about that. It's about getting a presence and maybe getting Dems into local office.

It's about moving perception.

[Qutzupalotl]

23. We don't have to flip states to make a difference.

Just having a name on the ballot is not very expensive, but it does give us a voice in the debate.

If we don't show up and field a candidate, it makes us look weak or afraid to debate. It reinforces the idea they have that we can't support our positions because they are indefensible. So stand there and say your piece. Even if you don't win — and you likely won't — you will gain a modicum of respect for defending your beliefs. That incrementally changes the caricature the other side has about us, and opens the door for future gains. It also affects the national conversation; our ideas can get repeated on radio call-in shows, letters to the editor, and so on. Giving up without a fight does none of that.

There is always the possibility that a Republican candidate will be engulfed in a scandal big enough to turn off voters. If we have a candidate ready to fill the void, we have a chance at taking that seat; if we don't, that opportunity is lost.

[Casady1]

26. It's about the money

Fine if you want to put someone up but for our national party to expend our money on a state that we will not win is foolish.

[Qutzupalotl]

28. Candidates can pay their own filing fee.

It's $500 where I live. They don't have to spend more than that. They won't get fancy mailers, but interviews with local TV and radio can be had for free, and that changes the debate. Suddenly it's not all one side talking, and people can actually consider other ideas.

[Casady1]

29. that is fine

don't expect that the party will help. We need to put the money into the swing states.

[Qutzupalotl]

43. You're overlooking the fact that Democrats raise more money

when they field more candidates. Someone in a red state is not going to donate to the party if they won't even field a candidate for them. But if we do, our base gets interested and donates. Howard Dean proved that … this century, LOL.

[Casady1]

45. Times have changed

Biden won by 40,000 votes There is no room for error.

[Qutzupalotl]

64. Also no room for writing off people

or districts or states.

Biden won by flipping red states we once thought were out of reach.

[slightlv]

48. After Brownback's administration,

I doubt KS will ever go blue again. And to think... once we were, and we had a great state. But, we keep on trying!

[OneTotalMook]

53. That's True..But We Didn't REALLY Carry New York State This Time Either!

You don't want to be in the business of wasting money or chasing pipe dreams... but if you are one of TWO major parties in the United States.. there shouldn't be DOZENS or HUNDREDS of races that you are not contesting!!! We could have written off Georgia or Alabama the same way but even if there were decades of guaranteed losses ahead.. there should be an effort to support the party in every state... provide even token support for candidacies... mentor and support GOTV and campaigns.. even the ones that will be lost. The Democratic Party SHOULD provide candidates in close but not likely races SOME of the support that the Republicans provided Herschel Walker.. he was a tomato can candidate who could easily could have won but DIDN'T because of the agitation and lost campaigns for Governor & Senator in that state which preceded 2020 & 2022!!!

[yardwork]

55. We are giving up too many races. We can win some offices in Oklahoma.

The 50-state strategy saves money because it increases participation.

[CrispyQ]

5. It's time to stop writing red areas off because we think we can't win.

We should have a candidate in every race. I can't believe with all the PAC money flowing through our electoral process that more of it can't trickle down to the local level.

[GoneOffShore]

20. This - a thousand times this.

[Casady1]

9. I've been saying this

and I noted Biden has no emotional attachment to many democrats and independents.. Obama and Trump have huge emotional attachment.

[lees1975]

16. Well Said/

https://signalpress.blogspot.com/2023/06/ultimately-we-people-are-going-to-have.html

[EarlG]

17. "...in some ways makes him more formidable for 2024 against Biden."

Presidential campaigns are never easy, but I just don't see how all these criminal charges make Trump more formidable than he was in 2016 (when he just managed to squeak into the presidency by a hair) or in 2020 (when he lost).

Trump's base is rock solid and yes, he likely will win the GOP nomination. But you can't win a presidential election with just your base. Do most Americans -- the middle-of-the-road types, the swing voters, the people who vote but don't pay daily attention to politics -- do they want to re-elect a candidate they already rejected in 2020? Especially if that candidate is a proven shitheel who has done nothing since he left office but spew hate, incite violence, and get himself charged with dozens of serious crimes? Not to mention the whole "leaving critical national security secrets about the defense of the nation lying around in bathrooms and showing them off to anyone he wants to impress" thing...

Wilson is right in that it's essential to remain vigilant -- of course it would be foolish for Biden and other Democrats to coast for the next year and just assume that Trump has no chance. He has to be beaten again, and soundly. But I'm not sure I buy the idea that he is somehow more formidable now than he was in the past. Election night 2016 was his peak and it's been pretty much all downhill since then, not just for him, but for many Republican candidates who attached themselves to him.

[DinahMoeHum]

24. I think Wilson is referring to VOTER TURNOUT in 2024. . .

Last edited Sat Jun 10, 2023, 01:06 PM - Edit history (1)

. . .and it's just about guaranteed that not only will every MAGAt will come crawling out of the woodwork to vote for Trump no matter what, but they will revert to every voter suppression trick out there to discourage everybody else from voting.

And we cannot let that happen.

[EarlG]

31. Ah, understood

But even if every single MAGAt comes crawling out of the woodwork and votes for Trump, that's still not enough votes to win. We saw that in 2020.

The danger from Republican candidates is when they manage to craft a successful appeal to middle-of-the-road voters, like Reagan and George W. Bush were able to do. Trump was also able to do this in 2016 -- he positioned himself as a change agent running against "the establishment," on a "what do you have to lose?" platform. After eight years of a Democratic president, just enough voters decided they wanted to see what a non-politician could do, and he managed to squeak out enough votes in the right places to put himself over the top.

I'm not sure there's any evidence that those middle-of-the-road voters who gave him a shot in 2016, then regretted it in 2020, are going to come back to Trump in 2024. Most special elections and local elections over the past three to five years seem to be showing the opposite -- that voters are moving away from MAGA Republicans and their extremist policies.

But to be clear -- I'm not suggesting in any way that this means we should consider 2024 to be a gimme. I think that's also an important lesson we learned in 2016, and one that Democrats won't forget for a very long time.

[Hekate]

59. +1

[KPN]

21. "The GOP primary is the press trying to make a horserace out of horseshit"

Rick Wilson is a master communicator if there ever was one. You can't get any more graphically clear than that statement. Too bad he isn't a Democrat, but I'll take him and the Lincoln Project for now.

[dlk]

22. Republicans used to at least pretend they believed in national security

With Trump, they have shown it was only smoke and mirrors all along, while they upped their grifting game, and cheated to amass power. The GOP has devolved into a party of fascism and they will not go quietly. Make no mistake, our democracy is on the precipice and remaining on the sidelines is a vote for fascism.

[CrispyQ]

41. This: our democracy is on the precipice and remaining on the sidelines is a vote for fascism.

And this. Spread this far & wide. To young voters. To first time voters. To "both sides are the same" non-voters.

[ShazzieB]

74. Oh, I like this!

[poli-junkie]

27. I just sent my postcards to 18-34 year old

Dems who reside in New York and didn’t vote in last election, which is why they have a Repuke congressman who voted against what these young folks care about: student debt relief & climate change

[WarGamer]

30. Every time I see Rick Wilson bloviating...

I think how if Jeb! had won in 2016, Rick would still be pushing neocon narratives and smears against Democratic politicians.

[CrispyQ]

47. True that.

But when you're on the precipice of fascism...

What I'd like to know is where is the Democratic Party's Lincoln Project? Not MediasTouch, who are dems—but the Party. Why can't some of the piles & piles of PAC money pay for national ads showing the public that the country doesn't actually do better economically under repubs? Would you rather vote for TAX & SPEND or TAX CUT & SPEND? We need a marketing department. A well financed one.

[OneTotalMook]

54. Don't Hate the Player... Rick Wilson Was REALLY Good At Getting Out the REPUB Vote

If you're a DEMOCRAT in this country.. you can't be too much of a purist. We are the party of Ben Nelson.. Andrew Cuomo.. Steny Hoyer... you know.. people with FLEXIBLE politics. So let's acknowledge that the Lee Atwaters, Rick Wilson's , Nicole Wallace's, and Steve Schmidt's do come from somewhere.. they have their Conservative POV's and bona fides but they are providing to us their command of the ruthless arts as a matter of principle. Let us respect that and learn from them and challenge OURSELVES to set our loving Democratic hearts aside for a moment to focus some critical hard nosed analysis at what it will take to get our points across and win contests in places inhospitable to our message, processes, and candidates.. INCLUDING those within our party whose incentive is to maintain personal power vs. the larger goals of the party's membership!!!!

[BigOleDummy]

76. Exactly!

Well said indeed.

[karin_sj]

78. Hear hear!

Great points! Totally agree.

[JI7]

73. So what ? He is effective in going against Trump .

[czarjak]

80. You built this, Rick. Way before 2016, we were going to be dragged "kicking and screaming"...

To The Right. Right? Conservative Republicanism not being the wave of the future sure isn't working out now like he thought it would.

[llashram]

33. with trump calling

for armed revolution from his followers. These are and will be dangerous times for the foreseeable future and beyond. Head on a swivel and situational awareness of one's position anywhere in public and yes GOTV...

[treestar]

35. So now that he's finally indicted

it's an electoral advantage to him?

How in the blazes can that make him more formidable against a candidate who beat him once already? He was kicked out because of his unprofessional demeanor and incompetence in favor of someone experienced? Who would go back to that then?

And his being criminally indicted is going to help him? Gimme a break.

[jaxexpat]

75. I think it's, maybe, the unspeakable. Our greatest fantasy at the door.

It's time to move the chairs to the walls and make room for a 75%+ majority in both houses. Enough support to unclog the legislative process. Make unforgettable the stinking mess created by the minority party, for a few cycles at least.

To do real things:
>Outlaw gerrymandering.
>Eliminate the electoral college.
>Federally codify all aspects of the voting process.
>Make filling vacancies in the USSC an accountable process.
>Protect and expand SS and mandate universal single payer healthcare.
>Codify immigration legislation based on facts.
>Reverse the USSC's anti-people rulings.
>Full statehood for US territories and protectorates.

I think that will require kicking the dead horse way beyond the point of good taste and probably beyond where we can stomach it. But we'll need to keep kicking until we just can't kick any more.

[SleeplessinSoCal]

39. There is an aspect to certain indictments which prevent him from holding office again.

Most likely January 6, which is up next.
Can he actually be sworn in if that happens?

The bigger problem is misinformation masquerading as "News".

[Autumn]

40. There is no way Trump can beat Biden. As for the rest of the nuts? No way.

[CrispyQ]

49. A conviction will appeal to some people, but most will be turned off.

I think the images yesterday of the boxes & boxes, in a bathroom, on a ballroom stage, tipped over & lying on the floor was a shock. I know I was shocked & I've been following the story. Imagine if you don't pay close attention & you see those images.

[Snackshack]

50. No, there are not...

“Dangerous times ahead”. Framing it that way implies that the “danger” has not started yet when in reality the danger started the day DT came down that escalator to announce his intention for President.

[allegorical oracle]

56. We're dead in the water here in Fla. Way too many Repugs ran uncontested. In the smaller, red

counties, Dems are as much in the crazies' crosshairs as election workers. Elected office isn't necessarily worth it to people. We're functioning under gerrymandered districts that were personally mapped out by DeSatan and approved by the courts when they were contested by the Dems.

[Cha]

62. No Problem.

[flamingdem]

63. My biggest worry is a third party

appealing to low information voters.

[liberalla]

66. K&R!

[quakerboy]

67. We always need to do that

Im afraid this could take him out. I want trump as the Republican nominee. Hes a proven loser.

[AllyCat]

68. He must be totally and utterly defeated and defanged.