Manchin stokes Democratic speculation for 2024 with No Labels event

[Celerity]

https://thehill.com/homenews/senate/4098396-manchin-stokes-speculation-with-no-labels-event/



Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) is causing a stir among Democrats as his extended flirtation with a third-party presidential run is set to resurface when he headlines an event for No Labels — despite concerns that a possible run would boost former President Trump. Manchin will headline an event for the middle-of-the-road group — which has been pushing a potential “unity ticket” as a third option in the presidential race — in New Hampshire on Monday.

The possibility of third-party candidates drawing votes has Democrats worried, but they are especially concerned Manchin, who is up for reelection in 2024, could deliver a double blow to the party: a presidential bid that harms President Biden next year and virtually hands a key Senate seat and potential majority in the chamber to the GOP. “Joe is America’s biggest political tease,” Sen. Dick Durbin (Ill.), the No. 2 Senate Democrat, told The Hill. “And I trust that he’ll make a judgment to run for reelection in West Virginia. I hope he will.”

snip

Polls show a third-party bid by a No Labels candidate could create a real headache for Biden, particularly if Trump is the GOP nominee. According to a survey of swing states released by a group of operatives from both parties who are seeking to derail a No Labels candidacy, Biden leads 52 percent to 48 percent in a head-to-head matchup. However, Trump jumps into the lead over the president by a point (40 percent to 39 percent) when a No Labels candidate is factored in. The hypothetical third-party candidate would receive 21 percent, with 13 percent being drawn from Biden and 8 percent coming from Trump.

“It’s pretty clear that a No Labels candidate would help reelect Donald Trump, and I hope anybody who considers it recognizes that that’s a very possible outcome,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), declining to specifically discuss Manchin. “That path is not a path to winning. It’s a path to spoiling the election for Joe Biden and electing Donald Trump.” Manchin, for his part, has done little to staunch the speculation. He said last month he was “not ruling anything in, not ruling anything out.”

snip


Even Manchin simply refusing to shut this shit down is damaging.

[Mad_Machine76]

1. Who does he think would vote for him?

He's too "liberal" for Republicans and most Democrats either hate him or just tolerate him. If he does something like this, he will not endear himself to anybody in the Democratic Party and if he helps re-elect Trump, history will be even unkinder to him........

[jimfields33]

4. Independent voters who make up a big chunk of the electorate

Let’s just hope this is talk.

[Mad_Machine76]

5. I hope so

but I wonder what *they* see in him?

[karynnj]

13. He hopes the Independents see him as having "their values"

The flaw is, where you have some ability to describe the values of the current Democratic and Republican parties, knowing there will be some politicians deviating on somethings, independent includes many diverse groups. They include both the far left and the far right. They include libertarians and people supporting the green party. This suggests NO ONE has the values that would inspire all independents.

I think it is great that top Democrats are making the case that independents are more likely to help Trump. However, this poll has two major problems. The first is support for third parties alway fades. The second is that the poll is for an unnamed moderate. This lets everyone, not happy with the choice, consider a perfect candidate from their perspective.

Using Manchin as the example, note that his inclusion likely moves the far left and greens to stronger support for Biden. Anyone for whom climate crisis is an issue is not going to vote for Manchin. Not to mention, since passed, elements of the IRA bill are popular in the center, as well as left. This happened not because of Manchin, but in spite of him.

I do get he hurts, because the people he likely will get are Republicans who do not want Trump. He would give them an option to vote against Trump but not for Biden. This hurts if more of them would have voted for Biden than reluctantly voting for Trump. If their alternative was they would not vote, I think their voting for Manchin is a wash.

[Mad_Machine76]

20. I agree with what you're saying.

n/t

[Demsrule86]

31. Won't happen.

[Trueblue1968]

23. i can't stand him.

[Mad_Machine76]

24. Me neither

It has become apparent that he and Sinema were elected to play the role of "Hostile Democrat(s)" during the Biden Presidency.

[Think. Again.]

2. This guy...

...just can't see past his own eyeballs. It's all about him.

[Walleye]

3. That's funny, because I could think of lots of labels for these people

Joe Manchin is the Erdogan of the Democratic Party

[Botany]

6. I wonder how Joe is explaining all the smoke in the air all over the midwest and east?

Joe has been fighting the science of climate change and or doing anything about it.

Joe and his family own part of a power plant in W.V. that is very dirty and is killing and or
making sick the people who live around it. It burns gob (waste) coal and it pollutes like
a mother fucker.

Joe is just being Joe right now and that is not a good act but it gets Joe lots of $. Fucking asshole. I'm sitting here with the smoke from the Canadian wildfires in the air here because of climate change thanks to Joe's fossil fuels.

[JohnSJ]

7. Why would anyone vote for a thrid party candidate? Unless you are living in a bubble, the only

thing third party candidates accomplish is being a spoiler.

and for that reason alone, I don't buy The Hill's analysis. Just the fact that the "No Labels" group doesn't even have a Presidential candidate makes this analysis pure nonsense.

I have never been a fan of The Hill or Politico. From my perspective they are just gossip rags, who thrive on speculation and hyperbole to increase their readership.

As long as DEMOCRATS get out the vote in huge numbers, we will win.

As for Manchin and West Virgina, West Virgina was never a sure thing, so we just have to focus on other states.

I think issues such as a woman's right to choose, civil rights, book banning, the environment, woman's rights, labor rights, etc. are going to be a significant part of the election, and I also believe that the assumption that young people don't vote is going to be wrong. Their future is at stake.

[Celerity]

8. Senator Chris Van Hollen speaks for me

“It’s pretty clear that a No Labels candidate would help reelect Donald Trump, and I hope anybody who considers it recognizes that that’s a very possible outcome,” said Sen. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), declining to specifically discuss Manchin. “That path is not a path to winning. It’s a path to spoiling the election for Joe Biden and electing Donald Trump.”

[JohnSJ]

14. Why? Are people that stupid after what happened in 2000 and 2016? After 4 years of trump I

don’t buy that. Let alone the fact that no labels doesn’t even have presidential candidates.

Just a couple weeks ago the same hyperbole was being pushed about RFK jr by the same sources

Anyone with a mindset to vote third party was never going to vote for a republican or Democrat, and I would argue even if there wasn’t a third party, those people wouldn’t vote for a Democrat or republican regardless

[Celerity]

21. RFK Jr, unless he ran on a 3rd party ticket in the general is not a true threat at all as he has

zero chance to win the primary.

If Manchin ran on a No Labels ticket in the general, that is a threat to Biden, how much is TBD.

The same (and this will happen. as he is running) for Cornel West and the Greens. West IS running in the general, and unlike Manchin, he will almost exclusively draw from the left, including some Dems, with little taking of votes from Trump (unlike Manchin, who would also draw from Trump).

you said:

Why? Are people that stupid after what happened in 2000 and 2016?

Unfortunately, yes, I believe some are.

you said:

Anyone with a mindset to vote third party was never going to vote for a republican or Democrat, and I would argue even if there wasn’t a third party, those people wouldn’t vote for a Democrat or republican regardless

Stein obviously pulled a fair amount of Dem voters in 2016, and (rarely discussed) Gary Johnson and Evan McMullin (who only ran in 11 states, got 732,000 votes, which is more than half of Stein's total) pulled even more from Trump (and some, in Johnson's case, from Clinton, granted a much smaller number than he pulled from Trump, McMullin pulled almost exclusively from Trump).

If you go just off the pure vote totals, the RW 3rd party/minor candidates got almost 4 million more (around 5.5 million versus 1.53 million) votes than the LW minor candidates.



We had all best hope that there is a 3rd party RIGHT WING group of candidates who draw from Trump (like what happened in 2016) to offset what West and (possibly) a centrist No Labels ticket will draw from Biden.

There was nothing like that in 2020 (Johnson did not run), and also the LW 3rd party votes were vastly smaller as well, as the Greens ran a nobody in Hawkins. West has far more star/pulling power, and a No Labels centrust ticket will not be like a McMullin 'draw almost all from Trump' run.

Johnson drew shedloads more from Trump than from Clinton in 2016, but so far the Libertarians have fuckall big name candidates for 2024, which is not a good thing for us.

[JohnSJ]

22. If Manchin ran as a third party candidate for president, just who would for him?

He is anti choice, and to the right on most issues. He is not a moderate as the illustrious press likes to claim. The media claims anyone who isn’t for trump is a moderate, which is nonsense

Manchin’s Senate seat is threatened, which is why he is playing this game

As for Cornell West, he can’t even form a sentence that makes sense anymore

I stand by my statement, anyone who would for a third party candidate, would not vote for a Democrat or Republican for president

If women and young people do not come out in large numbers to vote Democratic in 2024, then they deserve everything that happens to them, especially after what the country has been through with trump. I don’t think that will happen though

[Celerity]

25. We shall see, I think that past data shows you cannot be so sure at all that 3rd party and indy

candidates cannot draw enough from the 2 main parties to affect the final outcome.

I also think you are underestimating the ability of West to draw blood from us.

I will not post it here, but he gave an interview that is making the rounds in my direct, personal social set (mostly younger people 18 to 34ish) that is having an adverse effect in terms of supporting Biden.

I can already say that it will likely be more anti-Trump/anti-Rethug, and not pro-Biden/pro Dem sentiment that carries the day, at least with many of the younger people I know.

A huge chunk of the US electorate is not a 'My Democratic party, right or wrong' hyper-partisan cohort like we have here on DU, it just isn't, no matter how much we may wish it was.

[JohnSJ]

26. Regardless Celerity, a vote for a third party candidate is a throw away vote. Those that vote third

party have to realize that candidate will never make it to the WH.

Whether it is a West drawing “blood” from Democrats, or a Manchin drawing blood from Independents, why would I expect anyone who voted for a West or Manchin to vote for a Democrat, Biden?

West was the perfect example of that mentality. It was clear that the SC was at stake, and after the Democratic Party honored him by putting him on the rules committee, when his candidate lost the 2016 primary, he immediately endorsed Jill Stein. After the election when trump won, he was on Bill Maher and asked if Hillary would have been better than trump, he agreed, but made it clear he had no regrets voting for Jill Stein. In other words he had no intention of voting the Democratic candidate.

The no labels party is listed as registered non-profit, but do not have to list names of their donors

Reports from various sources indicate most of their donors tilt to the republican side.

From my perspective, the no labels group are predominantly made up of republicans, and hope to entice independents not to vote Democratic, because they sure won’t get Democrats, and I would argue they also won’t get independent progressives

[Celerity]

28. I have spent years here documenting No Labels/Problem Solvers shenanigans. I have the same (more

even at times) contempt for the US Greens.

My detesting both of them doesn't, however, remove my fear of them ratfucking us in 2024.

[JohnSJ]

29. That is understandable. 2000 and 2016

[617Blue]

16. Manchin has contempt for Biden and all "hippy libs."

the rationale for his discontent with Biden is flimsy and petty and it's clearly personal. Same with Sinema.

They hate us - that's the bottom line with these two frauds.

[BeckyDem]

9. Citizens United is going to kill us.

Excerpts:

Most of the policies No Labels has advocated for are procedural reforms in Congress to limit the power of the majority party. The organization was founded by long-time Democratic operative Nancy Jacobson, but it has received substantial funding from Republican donors.

No Labels oversees numerous PACs and Super PACs: the No Labels Problem Solvers PAC, the No Labels Action PAC, United Together, Forward Not Back, Citizens for a Strong America, Govern Or Go Home, and United for Progress. 2

Previously, in 2021, No Labels launched the Political Action Committee (PAC) Insurance Policy for America, Inc. (IFPA), a $2.4 million effort to gain access to state ballots. As of June 2023, the group has met the signature requirement to be placed on the ballot as a third-party in five states including Arizona, Colorado, Alaska and Oregon.10 11 However, in March 2023 the Arizona Democratic Party filed a lawsuit to kick the party off the ballot by accusing them of pushing, “the interests of their dark money backers at the expense of Arizonans.” 12

FUNDING
No Labels has received funding from numerous major donors. Hedge fund manager Louis Bacon, a donor to Republicans including Sen. Mitt Romney (R-UT), began backing No Labels in 2018 when he gave $1 million to the organization’s associated PACs. James Murdoch, one of the more liberal members of the family of media mogul Rupert Murdoch, has given at least $1.2 million to New Labels’ associated PACs. Billionaire Nelson Peltz was a heavy donor to President Donald Trump and gave $900,000 to New Labels’ associated PACs. Other large PAC donors have included lawyer Dan Webb and financier Howard Marks. 23

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/no-labels/

[Celerity]

10. Plus some of their Problem Solvers House caucus worked with Manchin and Sinema (she is ex an Problem

Solver from when she was in the House) to help scupper massive chunks of Biden's and the rest of our Party's agenda.

When will the Democrats in No Labels' US House Problem Solvers Caucus denounce No Labels & cut ALL ties?

https://www.nolabels.org/problem-solvers-caucus

Inspired by the No Labels Movement, the Problem Solvers Caucus is a bipartisan group committed to cooperating on key issues. Founded in 2017, the caucus is quickly becoming one of the most influential blocs on Capitol Hill.

The Problem Solvers Caucus features 58 House members — evenly divided between the parties — with each member committed to cooperation and dialogue. The group operates as an independent member-driven caucus that sets its own rules, standards and priorities.

The Problem Solvers Caucus developed out of informal "get to know you" meetings on Capitol Hill hosted by No Labels in the early 2010s. Our mission evolved over time and the group became larger and more structured. The "Problem Solvers" formally organized in 2017 and since then they’ve successfully broken through the gridlock of today’s politics many times getting key legislation passed with bipartisan support.

https://www.influencewatch.org/non-profit/no-labels/

https://problemsolverscaucus.house.gov/members

The Problem Solvers Caucus is a bipartisan group in the United States House of Representatives that includes members equally divided between Democrats and Republicans, who seek to foster bipartisan cooperation on key policy issues.

The group was created in January 2017 as an outgrowth of meetings held by political organization No Labels starting in 2014.

It is currently co-chaired by Josh Gottheimer (D-NJ) and Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA).

Democrats

Salud Carbajal of California
Ed Case of Hawaii
Jim Costa of California
Angie Craig of Minnesota
Henry Cuellar of Texas
Don Davis of North Carolina
Debbie Dingell of Michigan
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington
Jared Golden of Maine
Josh Gottheimer of New Jersey
Josh Harder of California
Steven Horsford of Nevada
Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania
Dan Kildee of Michigan
Greg Landsman of Ohio
Susie Lee of Nevada
Wiley Nickel of North Carolina
Donald Norcross of New Jersey
Jimmy Panetta of California
Chris Pappas of New Hampshire
Scott Peters of California
Brittany Pettersen of Colorado
Dean Phillips of Minnesota
Mary Peltola of Alaska
Brad Schneider of Illinois
Hillary Scholten of Michigan
Elissa Slotkin of Michigan
Darren Soto of Florida
Abigail Spanberger of Virginia
Haley Stevens of Michigan
Emilia Strong Sykes of Ohio
David Trone of Maryland

Republicans

Don Bacon of Nebraska
Lori Chavez-DeRemer of Oregon
Juan Ciscomani of Arizona
Ben Cline of Virginia
John Curtis of Utah
Anthony D'Esposito of New York
Chuck Edwards of North Carolina
Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin
Andrew Garbarino of New York
Tony Gonzales of Texas
Jenniffer Gonzalez of Puerto Rico
John James of Michigan
Bill Johnson of Ohio
Dusty Johnson of South Dakota
David Joyce of Ohio
Thomas Kean Jr. of New Jersey
Young Kim of California
Nick LaLota of New York
Mike Lawler of New York
Nancy Mace of South Carolina
Nicole Malliotakis of New York
Daniel Meuser of Pennsylvania
Marc Molinaro of New York
Blake Moore of Utah
James Moylan of Guam
Maria Elvira Salazar of Florida
Chris Smith of New Jersey
Bryan Steil of Wisconsin
David Valadao of California
Brandon Williams of New York

Former members

Democrats

Anthony Brindisi of New York (lost reelection in 2020)
Carolyn Bourdeaux of Georgia (lost renomination in 2022 due to redistricting)
Lou Correa of California (remains in office)
Joe Cunningham of South Carolina (lost reelection in 2020)
Elizabeth Esty of Connecticut (did not seek reelection in 2018)
Vincente Gonzalez of Texas (remains in office)
Kendra Horn of Oklahoma (lost reelection in 2020)
Conor Lamb of Pennsylvania (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Daniel Lipinski of Illinois (lost Democratic nomination in 2020)
Elaine Luria of Virginia (lost reelection in 2022)
Tom Malinowski of New Jersey (lost reelection in 2022)
Ben McAdams of Utah (lost reelection in 2020)
Stephanie Murphy of Florida (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Richard Nolan of Minnesota (did not seek reelection in 2018)
Tom O'Halleran of Arizona (lost reelection in 2022)
Jared Polis of Colorado (elected Governor of Colorado in 2018)
Jacky Rosen of Nevada (elected to United States Senate in 2018)
Max Rose of New York (lost reelection in 2020)
Kurt Schrader of Oregon (lost renomination in 2022)
Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona (elected to United States Senate in 2018)
Tom Suozzi of New York (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Peter Welch of Vermont (elected to United States Senate in 2022)

Republicans

Mark Amodei of Nevada (remains in office)
Mike Bost of Illinois (remains in office)
Mike Coffman of Colorado (lost reelection in 2018)
Ryan Costello of Pennsylvania (did not seek reelection in 2018)
Carlos Curbelo of Florida (lost reelection in 2018)
Charlie Dent of Pennsylvania (resigned in 2018)
John Faso of New York (lost reelection in 2018)
Anthony Gonzalez of Ohio (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Jaime Herrera Beutler of Washington (lost renomination in 2022)
Will Hurd of Texas (did not seek reelection in 2020)
Lynn Jenkins of Kansas (did not seek reelection in 2018)
John Katko of New York (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Tom MacArthur of New Jersey (lost reelection in 2018)
Patrick Meehan of Pennsylvania (resigned in 2018)
Peter Meijer of Michigan (lost renomination in 2022)
Tom Reed of New York (resigned in 2022)
Tom Rice of South Carolina (lost renomination in 2022)
Illeana Ros Lehtinen of Florida (did not seek reelection in 2018)
Pete Stauber of Minnesota (remains in office)
Van Taylor of Texas (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Glenn Thompson of Pennsylvania (Remains in office. Previously a member, but uncertain current membership status.)
Dave Trott of Michigan (did not seek reelection in 2018)
Fred Upton of Michigan (did not seek reelection in 2022)
Steve Watkins of Kansas (lost Republican nomination in 2020)
David Young of Iowa (lost reelection in 2018)

[BeckyDem]

11. Absolutely, and his poll numbers lead to those two, imo. n/t

[librechik]

12. Sure, why not? But NOT as a Democrat. Or Independent. He's straight up Repukkke

in the Billionaire Caucus. Just admit it.

[617Blue]

15. He's run his last race as a "Democrat"

He won't run in WV because he's going to get throttled by Justice.

So he figures he'll satisfy his ego and help elect Trump. A win win for Manchin.

[maxrandb]

17. Oh no! Dems in DISARRAY!!!

President Biden will beat the brakes off of Donnie Dipshit "and" Joe "Coal"

If people realize and concentrate on the fact that our very survival as a nation is at stake, this election shouldn't even be close.

It doesn't fucking matter anyway. If by hook, crook, or even the divine intervention of some all powerful invisible being, that orange fuckstick slinks his way back to the White House, this country is fucking finished.

We would deserve what ever shitstorm comes after that.

[BlueIdaho]

18. ManChin would be a dead man running.

The man has no overarching unified platform and a thin record of helping people. He’s a bought and paid for oil industry stooge.

His political message seems to be - “What can you do for me?”

[liberal_mama]

19. I wish we had a viable 3rd party that had a chance to win, but Manchin is pretty unpopular with

Democrats and Repubs. I wouldn't vote for him. He'd make a shitty president.

[JohnSJ]

30. There is no viable third party that has a chance to win, because the two party system is

too entrenched

The only thing they serve is being a spoiler

[Red Mountain]

27. The ego of these people

the echos inside their heads must be driving them crazy.

[Wednesdays]

32. "...but they are especially concerned Manchin, "

"...who is up for reelection in 2024, could deliver a double blow to the party: a presidential bid that harms President Biden next year and virtually hands a key Senate seat and potential majority in the chamber to the GOP."

If he does both, his political career is finished. Full stop.