Civil War? Or not.

[planetc]

All right. Last night on NPR I heard a guy saying we could not disqualify TFG on the 14th Amendment because this could lead to bloody battles when his followers will revolt and shoot a bunch of people. There are several reasons why I don’t think civil war is imminent. First, the extreme polarization which the press constantly refers to may be a figment of the media’s imagination. There may be one party of armed maniacs and a bunch of people who are not prepared to shoot anybody because of their red hats. Second, even if enough red hat people got together and decided to attack something, it is extremely difficult to decide what they could attack that would get them anywhere. Third, we have seen the strategic acumen of the red hat people on 1/6/21, and all their geniuses were AWOL. Even if they wanted to strike hard, they have no discipline, since their prowess is mainly in their imaginations. They think owning a gun or seven makes you a soldier.

Are we as polarized as the media think we are? There are certainly a lot of hot heads on the red hat side, people who want to use their guns to defend their country, but they, like all of us, are a little fuzzy on exactly who to shoot. But what about the blue hat side? I don’t see a whole lot of blue hats calling for the arrest of people who wear red hats. We are perfectly happy to wait for one of them to break the law, and then arrest them. We’re law and order types. So why do the media keep going on about it? Because it’s essential to their narrative structure that there be two sides in American politics: The liberal and conservative, the fiscally responsible and the spendthrifts, the red and the blue. It’s essential that these sides be evenly balanced, because if they were not, that would be a whole different story, one the media are not prepared to tell. In short, they’re not in the business of reporting news, but of entertaining us with an endless horse race, pumped full of as much emotion as they can imagine. I only discern one army, when you really need two for a war.

Next, should the red hats decide on revolt, what will their target or targets be? All the blue state houses? I don’t know about your governor, but I don’t see Gov. Hochul standing still for this. There may be an exchange of fire, but governors have the National Guard, police forces, and the law on their side. A blue state strategy would call for a larger army than the red hats could field, imho. What if Gov. DeSantis just surrenders his state house to the red hats? Well, that will be a problem for Floridians, but it will galvanize the rest of the country, who may develop a powerful desire to shut the red hats down. Oh, of course, why don’t they attack the U.S. Capitol building when congress is in session? Even with a traitorous President pulling strings, this didn’t work. TFG wasn’t serious, and some of his followers still haven’t got the memo, even as the 1/6 insurrectionists are escorted off to jail.

And lastly, we have seen no evidence that the red hat mob has any idea what a strategy is, much less any strategists. I have a feeling that any sergeant in the U.S. Army could do a better job of attacking a building than the entire red hat army. The Red Hats are deeply into shouting, roaring, clubbing, and decorating themselves with horned fur hats. I really don’t see that they have an officer class to lead them. I thing Red Hats may be an army of self-anointed leaders, with no followers.

It would be so nice if we had the media on our side, led by a few stalwart journalists who would just explain to the country that a 2024 TFG campaign for the presidency just will not work. They would have to drop their rigid “both sides are equal” theme, and sail out into the uncharted seas of reality, but I bet they would find the trip invigorating.

[dchill]

1. People are already shooting other people.

Either way, we'll ALWAYS have that. We either have a Constitution or we do not. Trump literally fits the Fourteenth Amendment definition. So does half the Republican party.

[planetc]

5. Well, I don't know about half, but far too large a percentage.

And of course you're right about the bullets already whizzing over our heads, and slaughtering some. The 14th amendment was written for exactly this situation. Fear of getting shot is not the attitude that founded the country.

[dchill]

9. I guess I'm thinking about the large percentage of...

... House GOP who actually voted to reject Biden's Electoral College victory. My own Representative, Lloyd Smucker, was one of them.

[usedtobedemgurl]

2. They would attack power stations.

There have been plans and tryouts on this already. If they can’t have the country, they will try to burn it to the ground.

[planetc]

8. Power stations are also widely distributed in the country.

So I think a power station hit would also galvanize the country to action.

[usedtobedemgurl]

11. I think anything is possible to galvanize,

But it will not stop them from trying. Look at j6.

[wnylib]

19. So if one side is destroying infrastructure

and the other side galvanizes for a response.....sounds like a civil war to me.

Besides destroying infrastructure, the RWers would target people for assassinations. The nature of any such civil war would be terrorist guerrilla tactics from the right. Would make it hard to fight them. In the end, they would lose. I am sure that our security and Intel agencies are aware of the dangers and are monitoring the situation and preparing for the possibility.

[relayerbob]

3. Nah

Mom will threaten to take their hamberder allowance away. They’ll slink back to the basements and resume their twitter poutrage.

There will be nuts shooting - but that’s already happening.

[Tickle]

4. My version of the civil war

People move to the state of their politics. Then at some point the country splits

[Recycle_Guru]

10. so in another 50 years or more

[FalloutShelter]

6. Well...

Let’s not forget who has the tanks.
If on 1/6… they had charged over Ashly Babbit’s body… they would have won the day. But they didn’t. Once the shooting started they faded.
They are terrorists… so attacking the infrastructure I can see.
But gun battle with the National Guard. I don’t think they have the sand.

[wnylib]

21. You are thinking in terms of conventional war.

If the RWers decide on violent action, they will use terroristic guerrilla tactics. The damage will be done and they will be gone from the scene before anyone can respond.

Consider cyber attacks and hacking too. Maybe with help from outside the country.

[planetc]

26. We're already getting cyber attacks and hacking, from small bands of capitalists here and elsewhere.

The campaign you're describing is a destabilization "war." My sense of the Red Hats is that they want the country they remember or imagine back again. An imaginary "America" is essential to their thinking. I don't think they want scorched earth, but an earthly paradise for white people.

[wnylib]

28. Yes, you are right that they want an earthly paradise for White people.

But, if they are thwarted in their goal, I think they will go scorched earth. Tear it all down if they can't have their way.

[Jerry2144]

7. I could see them ramping up terrorism against anything

Left seeming. Drive a Prius or electric car, support or be LGTBQIANB+ people, be a person of any of the categories they hate (color, religion, gender, intelligence, national origin, too many other things they hate) and you will be a target for the Meal Team 6, Gravy Seals, and Y’All Qaida.

It will show up as vandalism, attacks on individuals, terroristic threats, and public bad behavior (think those entitled people videos). But only a few of them will be that deranged. I suspect many of the Rabid Right have jobs they wish to keep and families to feed to really get into anything more than superficial.

[Model35mech]

12. It'll all begin to look different, if magats start flying drones

Asymmetry and terror rather than battles like Antietam, Gettysburg, etc is the way forward for the radicalized few

[planetc]

16. We've got drones too, don't we?

I will stipulate that the Red Hats are terrorists, but you can't take over a country this size without taking over a few buildings.

[Model35mech]

20. Yep, and some people would likely feel forced to respond in kind

Don't think 1861-1864.

It takes only a few to bring terror.

And like all terrorists they'll, radicalize more followers and so spread their violence around, calling the disruption and chaos their type causes evidence of the power it yields to those who take it up.



When things get really terrible for the rest of us, they'll be looking for some sort of surrender from us. More like ISIS than the Confederacy.

[wnylib]

22. How do you know who to retaliate againstt with our drones?

It's not like the drones will have return addresses.

[AltairIV]

13. Well, they're idiots so there is that.

"They think owning a gun, or seven, makes you a soldier.". Bingo! In there fantasies no one ever shoots back at them.

[planetc]

17. A few have started to wear body armor, but ...

that didn't help. They have half a tactic, but no strategy.

[bucolic_frolic]

14. "attack that would get them anywhere"

if you don't control a national legislature or capitol city, your rebellion is doomed.

DeSantis has nothing left to surrender in Florida. It's already redder than most state governments.

The red army of misfits lacks clear political and policy goals. The rest of the citizenry would benefit by joining them how exactly?

Yes, MSM media are master psychologists. They know how to control eyeballs and keep the both sides pot boiling. The worst of them can inflict massive mental distortion with logical fallacies and make the body politic sick, all in the name of advertising revenue. In that respect, Trump was more a cultural phenomenon than a political movement. He could rabble rouse without a governing platform.

[wnylib]

24. Would Erik Prince get involved?

[MLAA]

15. Based on the measly showing at indictment courthouse protests with more media than magats,

I think the J6 sentences have dampened the snowflakes enthusiasm for further insurrection.

[rampartc]

18. a "figment of the media's imagination?" or a "self fulfilling prophecy,."

a lot of these guys are serious about killing "commies" (that is us) and esp blacks.

we need to be ready to take down a few if these yahoos if becomes necessity

[Martin68]

23. Anybody who argues that Trump should not be prosecuted or disqualified because his followers might

react with violence is a traitor. If we can't enforce the rule of law against violent citizens, then we are no longer a democracy.

[Emile]

25. It's all hot air. The minute the guy next to them

head explodes into a red mist, they'll lay down their arms trembling in fear.

[Lady Freedom Returns]

27. No one is above the law. Period.

This is a foundation of our country. We have made this claim to the world about this.

So trump needs his day in court. There has been evidence found of wrong doing. And add to it, much of it was televised. That means the world has seen it. We need to stand up and show the world we mean what we say.

He will have his chance to answer the charges. He will have representation. He will have every opportunity to defend himself.

We can not let the fear of upsetting a faction of people to interrupt this process. It will make us look weak to the enemies of this country.

To allow these wayward citizens to interrupt the legal system with threats of violence will/would destroy this country than their attempt at a civil war.

[Oneironaut]

29. Imo, no, given that the country was extremely different then.

At the time, cotton was making the South an ungodly amount of money, using slavery. The US Civil War was a very specific situation that probably could never happen again.