'If U.S. is going to pay for a big portion of Israel's Gaza war cost, then of course we should care about the war plan.'

[bigtree]

...a colloquy:

John Hudson @John_Hudson (diplomacy & national security for @WashingtonPost)

SCOOP: The Biden administration is urging Israel against a full-scale ground invasion and instead to opt for a “surgical” campaign that relies on airstrikes and special forces raids, per 5 U.S. officials.

U.S. officials are increasingly concerned that a ground invasion could derail negotiations to free nearly 200 hostages, result in numerous casualties among Palestinian civilians and Israeli soldiers, and trigger a wider war in the Middle East

U.S. officials believe that a targeted operation would be more conducive to hostage negotiations, less likely to interrupt humanitarian aid deliveries, less deadly for people on both sides, and less likely to draw in Iran or Hezbollah, the officials said.

Despite their private warnings, U.S. officials do not have great confidence that Israel will reverse its intent to wage a large-scale ground offensive

Although the United States has considerable leverage over Israel as its largest military, political and economic backer, U.S. officials have not threatened to pull support or impose any consequences for going its own way.

thread: twitter.com/John_Hudson/status/1717972726839689603

Chris Murphy 🟧 @ChrisMurphyCT (U.S. Senator from Connecticut.)

We should support Israel’s right to defend itself. Hamas must be held accountable.

But if America is going to pay for a big portion of the war’s cost, then of course we should care about the war plan. It would not be good to fund a plan that doesn’t work.

My educated guess is Hamas welcomes a drawn out, large scale ground invasion. There are tens of thousands of young men in Gaza, currently wanting nothing to do w Hamas. But what side will they choose, if faced with a long term fight on their territory?

It feels pretty likely that a long, open ended Israeli operation - like our disastrous campaigns in Iraq and Afghanistan - that cuts off fuel and water and internet and results in widespread civilian harm will create as many Hamas militants as it eliminates.

Is that good for Israel? It doesn’t seem so. Especially because there also doesn’t seem to be any concept of what will replace Hamas politically. Remember, Hamas isn’t just a terror group; it’s the Gaza government. If there’s no stable replacement, it’s perpetual crisis.

I share Israel’s desperate need to eliminate Hamas. I want them destroyed. But if there is no realistic path to do that, then other options - like those discussed with the Israelis by the U.S. - should be on the table.

thread: twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1718276142350618896

[Think. Again.]

1. Thank goodness...

...the Biden administration is thinking sensibly about surgically targeting hamas and not just wiping out as many innocent palestinians as possible.

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2. they're talking sensibly

...is Israel thinking sensibly in response?

[DemocratInPa]

7. How long before the Biden administration condemns Israel then?

Like I said saying it is one thing, but when you are sending stuff over and cheering them on doing it is another.

[AntivaxHunters]

3. Healthcare please

Sick & tired of all this money going to bomb people while we're sleeping on the damn streets. It's enough!

[SickOfTheOnePct]

4. Funny how

None of these discussions about will the war plan work come up when discussing Ukraine. Don’t get me wrong, I’m all for supporting Ukraine with whatever they need in order defeat and expel Russia, but the only handwringing I’ve heard about it comes from the right.

But when it comes to Israel….

[bigtree]

5. but we hear all of the time about how Israel is a close and important ally

..why wouldn't we expect them to take heed of what our president is counseling?

I'm not sure what your knowledge is about Ukraine, but you're mistaken about the guidance we've provided their military efforts.

The U.S. has confirmed there is a “small U.S. military presence” deployed in Ukraine after leaked documents indicated several Western countries had special forces units on the ground amid Russia’s invasion.

National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told Fox News on Wednesday U.S. troops are in Ukraine, but “are not fighting on the battlefield.”

“I won’t talk to the specifics of numbers and that kind of thing,” he said. “There is a small U.S. military presence at the embassy in conjunction with the Defense Attachés office to help us work on accountability of the material that is going in and out of Ukraine.”

“So they’re attached to that embassy and to [the Defense Attaché],” he added.
https://americanmilitarynews.com/2023/04/us-troops-deployed-in-ukraine-biden-spokesperson-confirms/

...but there's no full scale invasion of Russia planned, as Israel intends in Gaza.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

8. Being an ally

Doesn’t make them subservient to us, or at least it shouldn’t.

[bigtree]

13. nothing in what I posted said anything about being subservient

...and nothing in what the Biden admin is advising has the expectation that Israel will be subservient.

Our Congress, represented here by Sen. Jackson, isn't, likewise, subservient to Israel in the military aid we supply. That assistance is expected to be used in our national interest, and it's proper and necessary that our leaders communicate their intentions for that assistance in representing the U.S. interest.

As both parties to this exchange noted though, Israel is in no way obligated to do what the U.S. wants, and the U.S. doesn't appear to be trying to restrict that military aid in any way.

Positing about subservience is basically a strawman in these developments and in our countries' relationship.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

14. Hmmm

why wouldn't we expect them to take heed of what our president is counseling?

Sounds like subservience is the expectation to me. YMMV

[bigtree]

17. you're being obtuse

....and completely unrealistic about how the U.S. communicates its intentions and how our allies respond.


Silliness. Read the material I posted. Read the article. Stop making stuff up.

Taking heed: to pay attention to something and be careful about it.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

18. Like I said

YMMV

[karynnj]

6. This might reflect that Ukraine is basically all DEFENSIVE, while this current stage

In Israel/Gaza is mostly OFFENSIVE. No one questioned repelling the murderous Hamas Invaders. Now, note that neither the Biden administration ot Senator Murphy are saying Israel should nit respond, they are questioning how it is done. C

[Bettie]

9. Ukraine is not targeting a

large, captive, civilian population.

[SickOfTheOnePct]

10. Neither is Israel n/t

[Bettie]

11. Oh, right

Israel has, never ever killed a single civilian. I forget that all Palestinians, from birth to death are "terrorists".

[SickOfTheOnePct]

12. Never said that

But there is a difference between targeting civilians, which Israel is not doing, and civilians being injured or dying because they are in close proximity to the actual targets, in this case, Hamas.

When targets hide amongst the innocent, some of the innocent will die. That’s on Hamas, not Israel.

[David__77]

16. Yeah that happens when you don't let non-combatsnts out or place your troops under any elevated risk.

Israel could open humanitarian corridors. Would it be risky? Sure. The calculation is that Palestinian babies aren’t worth it.

Israel could use targeted military tactics that were riskier to their troops and less risky to non-combatants.

These are choices to make.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

15. And SickOfTheOnePct never said anything like that.

That's your interpretation of his post, not at all what was posted.

[David__77]

19. This war will be a shit storm for the US geopolitically.

The US must do what some warmaniacs might consider “throwing Israel under the bus”. I imagine that there’s significant worry and division right now.

[bigtree]

20. it's hard to see how the U.S. can realistically restrain Israel indefinitely

...without some sort of process of negotiation between adversaries that has a reasonable outcome ensuring Israel's security.

That's remote to non-existent.

I'd guess though, what's restraining Israel right now is the chaos in the U.S. Congress holding up future assistance, and some uncertainty about what that package might contain.

Any overt criticism of Israel by Pres. Biden will be used by Israel's adversaries against them, so I wouldn't expect much of an overt rebuke from the WH, absent anything overly catastrophic.

Still early days for all that, though U.S. control over Israel is still a facade, a faint normally reserved for incidents where there's unanimity of condemnation or concern around the world.

U.S. policy in the Middle East is and always will be Israel-centric with a Democratic administration. American president's words of caution and restraint are dubiously measured in our murky perceptions of what Israel should restrain itself from doing, not in the stark reality of their determinate military actions which often bely those cautions.

[David__77]

21. I agree.

I do not expect that there would highly overt words. I was surprised at some not so overt things said.