BTRTN: Why Biden's 2024 Prospects Are Not Quite as Bad as the NY Times/Siena Poll Would Indicate

[tgards79]

"Many friends and readers have been freaking out about the NY Times/Siena poll released earlier this week. It paints a very grim picture of Biden’s reelection prospects based on polling in six swing states. Their attention-grabbing conclusion is as follows: “If the results in the poll were the same next November, Mr. Trump would be poised to win more than 300 Electoral College votes, far above the 270 needed to take the White House.” They based that on their data that showed Trump ahead of Biden by 4 points or more, among registered voters, in five of those six swing states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania; Biden was slightly ahead in Wisconsin) . They are correct in their math: if those results did not change by Election Day, 2024, then Trump would emerge the winner by a 302-236 electoral vote margin.

But I don’t agree with that conclusion, based on all the recent polls, and here’s why, state by state:

Michigan. By the NYT/Siena poll’s own data, Trump may be ahead by +5 in MIchigan among “registered voters,” but the race is..."


http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/11/btrtn-why-bidens-2024-prospects-are-not.html

[multigraincracker]

1. If they are correct...

Hope I can get into Canada before they build a wall.

[lees1975]

2. Jen Psaki and Nicole Wallace did a much better analysis of this poll.

Pointing out some of the inconsistencies in the numbers, the fact that these are media polls and the methodology of collecting was not really up to date. We're talking 3,600 people in six states, an average of about 600 people in each. Not enough, said Jen, to do an analysis with any degree of accuracy, especially a year out. As a former WH press secretary, she wasn't obfuscating or deflecting, she was putting it out as it would be seen inside. So did Nicole Wallace, who pretty much settled on the view that polls a year out from an election haven't been right about the winner in any 21st century Presidential election. Not within 5 points.

[tgards79]

3. Yes, this too.

Good job by them as well as BTRTN.

[tgards79]

4. Kicking it up