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tgards79

(1,415 posts)
Sun Dec 3, 2023, 09:27 AM Dec 2023

Balanced, Detailed Article on 2024 Presidential Election with Five Conclusions

"Among many other things, the Israel-Hamas war is a reminder of how unforeseen events suddenly overwhelm the global/political scene, like the bubbling lava flow from a suddenly active volcano obliterates the existing landscape. All other news has been submerged, and the prevailing wisdom about the electoral environment now must be recalibrated, as it is inevitably when new issues arise. It would be wise to remember this point in the context of the 2024 election, particularly when confronted with polling that is reported with pseudo-disclaiming language such as “if the election were held today.” The 2024 election is not being held today, and indeed will not be held for nearly another year, when the electoral environment will likely be radically different, as the war progresses and many other issues wax and wane.

But we can still make judgments about today’s political environment, and so we offer, with caution, five broad conclusions to set the stage for what is certain to be – yet again – the most consequential presidential election of modern times, if not ever in our nation’s history... "

http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-look-at-2024-presidential-race.html

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Balanced, Detailed Article on 2024 Presidential Election with Five Conclusions (Original Post) tgards79 Dec 2023 OP
Good article Bernardo de La Paz Dec 2023 #1

Bernardo de La Paz

(49,252 posts)
1. Good article
Sun Dec 3, 2023, 10:31 AM
Dec 2023
1. The 2024 election will be very close

2. The biggest issues are largely unpredictable as to their direction and impact on 2024

3. The political environment right now clearly favors the Democrats, based not on polls, but on actual elections.

4. But while the environment favors the Dems, Biden is running behind the party

5. Trump may have to withstand a serious threat from Nikki Haley
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