Balanced, Detailed Article on 2024 Presidential Election with Five Conclusions
"Among many other things, the Israel-Hamas war is a reminder of how unforeseen events suddenly overwhelm the global/political scene, like the bubbling lava flow from a suddenly active volcano obliterates the existing landscape. All other news has been submerged, and the prevailing wisdom about the electoral environment now must be recalibrated, as it is inevitably when new issues arise. It would be wise to remember this point in the context of the 2024 election, particularly when confronted with polling that is reported with pseudo-disclaiming language such as if the election were held today. The 2024 election is not being held today, and indeed will not be held for nearly another year, when the electoral environment will likely be radically different, as the war progresses and many other issues wax and wane.
But we can still make judgments about todays political environment, and so we offer, with caution, five broad conclusions to set the stage for what is certain to be yet again the most consequential presidential election of modern times, if not ever in our nations history... "
http://www.borntorunthenumbers.com/2023/12/btrtn-look-at-2024-presidential-race.html