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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsLiz Cheney May Run For President
Today she said she hasn't made a decision yet. She said she will do whatever it takes to defeat Donald Trump.
I don't know what to think. I guess if she siphons as many or more votes away from Trump as RFK Jr. does from Biden it's a good thing.
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onecaliberal
(34,422 posts)Anti vaxxers and their murdering policy is reicht wing, not left. And idgaf what they call themselves. I have eyes and ears.
Fiendish Thingy
(16,678 posts)In fact, many of the numbskulls chanting Genocide Joe are probably prime candidates to be RFK voters, if he is on the ballot.
Voltaire2
(13,964 posts)We repeatedly insist that a person voting third party is a vote taken from the democratic candidate. That is a claim that requires establishing that the person normally votes, and normally votes democratic.
There are people on the left who will never vote for a democratic or republican candidate. Their votes are basically irrelevant in our elections.
anamnua
(1,206 posts)His intervention swung it for Bill.
Voltaire2
(13,964 posts)Most analyses of Perots first campaign viewed the effect as neutral. As a third party centrist he did in fact pull in voters from the major parties, but pretty much equally from both.
Perot is an example of how a third party can draw from major parties- and the key factor is to occupy the center. The Libertarian Party on the right and the Green Party on the left both basically draw voters who wont vote for either major party, and despite our perpetual angst, are not really a factor.
That said, if No Labels had its shit together it could manage to replicate Perots effort. There certainly are a lot of people not thrilled either major party candidate. Luckily that doesnt appear likely.
Fiendish Thingy
(16,678 posts)To throw the election to Trump.
Its the biggest danger this year IMO.
Thats why all third party candidates must be crushed.
Celerity
(45,480 posts)https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/22/leftwingers-far-right-conspiracy-theories-anti-vaxxers-power
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Its an uncomfortable thing to admit, but in the countercultural movements where my sympathies lie, people are dropping like flies. Every few days I hear of another acquaintance who has become seriously ill with Covid, after proudly proclaiming the benefits of natural immunity, denouncing vaccines and refusing to take the precautions that apply to lesser mortals. Some have been hospitalised. Within these circles, which have for so long sought to cultivate a good society, there are people actively threatening the lives of others. Its not just anti-vax beliefs that have been spreading through these movements. On an almost daily basis I see conspiracy theories travelling smoothly from right to left. I hear right-on people mouthing the claims of white supremacists, apparently in total ignorance of their origins. I encounter hippies who once sought to build communities sharing the memes of extreme individualism. Something has gone badly wrong in parts of the alternative scene.
There has long been an overlap between certain new age and far-right ideas. The Nazis embraced astrology, pagan festivals, organic farming, forest conservation, ecological education and nature worship. They promoted homeopathy and natural healing, and tended to resist vaccination. We should be aware of this history, but without indulging what Simon Schama calls the obscene syllogism: the idea that because the Nazis promoted new age beliefs, alternative medicine and ecological protection, anyone who does so is a Nazi. In the 1960s and 70s, European fascists sought to reinvent themselves, using themes developed by revolutionary anarchists. They found fertile ground in parts of the anarcho-primitivist and deep ecology movements, which they tried to steer towards notions of ethnic separatism and indigenous autonomy.
But much of what we are seeing at the moment is new. A few years ago, dreadlocked hippies spreading QAnon lies and muttering about a conspiracy against Donald Trump would have seemed unthinkable. Today, the old boundaries have broken down, and the most unlikely people have become susceptible to rightwing extremism. The anti-vaccine movement is a highly effective channel for the penetration of far-right ideas into leftwing countercultures. For several years, anti-vax has straddled the green left and the far right. Trump flirted with it, at one point inviting the anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr to chair a commission on vaccination safety and scientific integrity. Anti-vax beliefs overlap strongly with a susceptibility to conspiracy theories. This tendency has been reinforced by Facebook algorithms directing vaccine-hesitant people towards far-right conspiracy groups. Ancient links between wellness movements and antisemitic paranoia have in some cases been re-established. The notion of the sovereign body, untainted by chemical contamination, has begun to fuse with the fear that a shadowy cabal is trying to deprive us of autonomy.
Theres a temptation to overthink this, and we should never discount the role of sheer bloody idiocy. Some anti-vaxxers are now calling themselves purebloods, a term that should send a chill through anyone even vaguely acquainted with 20th-century history. In their defence, however, if they cant even get Harry Potter right (purebloods is what the bad guys call themselves), we cant expect them to detect an echo of the Nuremberg laws. I believe this synthesis of left-alternative and rightwing cultures has been accelerated by despondency, confusion and betrayal. After left-ish political parties fell into line with corporate power, the right seized the language they had abandoned. Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings brilliantly repurposed the leftwing themes of resisting elite power and regaining control of our lives. Now there has been an almost perfect language swap. Parties that once belonged on the left talk about security and stability while those on the right talk of liberation and revolt.
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mucifer
(24,013 posts)bluestarone
(17,679 posts)I DON'T see her getting many Dem votes. Overall i say she gets MORE rethug votes than Dem votes.
TwilightZone
(26,463 posts)I can't imagine her getting many Dem votes, even from conservative Dems. There's too much at stake, and they're actually pretty reliable. 91% of moderate/conservative Dems voted for him in 2020.
https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/
Runningdawg
(4,536 posts)Fiendish Thingy
(16,678 posts)She would siphon off the Never Trumper vote that would otherwise go to Biden, and she says she doesnt want to do that.
gab13by13
(22,974 posts)but I am not a poll person. I'm sure Liz is thinking about that possibility also.
TwilightZone
(26,463 posts)I think they stay home or skip the top line.
Fiendish Thingy
(16,678 posts)It would only take a couple of thousand Never Trumpers voting third party instead of Biden to flip a swing state to Trump, assuming margins are similar to 2020.
Less than a fraction of 1% of the total vote, especially in GA and AZ.
TwilightZone
(26,463 posts)It's not just Never Trumpers that factor in if she runs. It's the difference in where she draws votes from that matters. There are a lot of people who would vote for Trump simply because he's the Republican candidate, and polls show some of them to be pretty iffy. I think Cheney could very well draw a lot of those, plus former/current Haley voters, and the like.
I suppose it's possible she'd draw more from Biden, but I'm not sure that's likely. I'm sure she has access to internal polling. She's not going to run if it's a net negative for Biden. She knows she can't win outright, and her intent would be to run as a spoiler.
Fiendish Thingy
(16,678 posts)A margin that thin cant be accounted for with hunches, assumptions about voter behaviour or even by polls.
In GA, Trump lost by 11, 780 votes out of over 5 million votes cast.
Assuming 2024 margins will be as slim, If third party candidates take 2,000 Biden votes each (RFK, Stein, and No Labels), Trump wins.
The only way to counter that risk is to crush and destroy each and every third party candidate, and to significantly increase turnout among Gen Z, Women and POC, especially in swing states.
JHB
(37,194 posts)...the "I don't like Trump, but there's no way I'm voting for a Democrat" Republicans.
brooklynite
(96,820 posts)You can't just "run for President". It requires a major effort and cost to get ballot access, which takes a huge amount of time. Assuming she's not going with NO LABELS (which I strongly doubt she would), it's nearly impossible to gear up a campaign at this late date.
intelpug
(96 posts)Absolutely right. I always look forward to you and a few other posters for no nonsense reality based opinions on the issues, It is indeed too late for her to get any serious campaign together , should started a year ago given who she is up against.
Tom Rinaldo
(22,975 posts)I don't think she is being driven by her on ego in making this decision. If she was, that could be dangerous since it could distort her judgement. In her case though I believe she is thinking strategically about how she can best use her voice to defeat Trump.
By running for President herself her voice will be elevated during the Presidential campaign and it will give her both a ready made platform and vehicle to promote and amplify her message that Trump is a danger to America. That is definitely for the good. Even if she is critical of Biden while running it is fine, since she always is very clear that Trump poses an existential threat to America while Biden does not. The people she can appeal to are not pro Biden, they are pro Democracy, and her message is that Trump will destroy Democracy.
At some point prior to November, if it appears from polling etc, that remaining in the race could hurt Biden, she could pull out and endorse Biden then instead . I actually believe her when she says that she will do everything she can to defeat Trump.
lindysalsagal
(21,230 posts)Hating tfg isn't enough reason, imho.
anamnua
(1,206 posts)Norbert
(6,175 posts)I do believe that if she sees that her candidacy is helping trump she will withdrawl.