Welcome to DU! The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards. Join the community: Create a free account Support DU (and get rid of ads!): Become a Star Member Latest Breaking News General Discussion The DU Lounge All Forums Issue Forums Culture Forums Alliance Forums Region Forums Support Forums Help & Search

gab13by13

(21,542 posts)
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:04 PM Feb 2024

Liz Cheney May Run For President

Today she said she hasn't made a decision yet. She said she will do whatever it takes to defeat Donald Trump.

I don't know what to think. I guess if she siphons as many or more votes away from Trump as RFK Jr. does from Biden it's a good thing.

24 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight: NoneDon't highlight anything 5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
Liz Cheney May Run For President (Original Post) gab13by13 Feb 2024 OP
RFK isn't siphoning from Biden. onecaliberal Feb 2024 #1
There are anti vaxers on the left too Fiendish Thingy Feb 2024 #3
Sure, but they are very unlikely to be 'Biden voters'. Voltaire2 Feb 2024 #12
Ross Perot anamnua Feb 2024 #15
That isn't clear at all. Voltaire2 Feb 2024 #22
All it takes is a couple of thousand Biden votes switched out of millions in a swing state Fiendish Thingy Feb 2024 #17
It's shocking to see so many leftwingers lured to the far right by conspiracy theories Celerity Feb 2024 #6
I could see blue dog dems voting for her. I don't like this at all mucifer Feb 2024 #2
Just my opinion. bluestarone Feb 2024 #4
I think she'd pull way more disaffected Rs than Ds TwilightZone Feb 2024 #11
As a Blue Dog from a family of BDs, I say NOPE. Runningdawg Feb 2024 #21
I'm guessing she won't run Fiendish Thingy Feb 2024 #5
That's what I think too, gab13by13 Feb 2024 #7
I'm not convinced that most Never Trumpers would vote for Biden. TwilightZone Feb 2024 #13
Out of millions of votes in a swing state, all it would take is a couple of thousand Fiendish Thingy Feb 2024 #18
That's assuming they would have voted for Biden otherwise. TwilightZone Feb 2024 #20
2,000 votes out of 5-7 million is a rounding error Fiendish Thingy Feb 2024 #24
It depends on whether her main "base" are the same Republicans who voted Libertarian in 2016... JHB Feb 2024 #8
Can I offer a reality check? brooklynite Feb 2024 #9
reality check intelpug Feb 2024 #23
I trust her on this matter. Tom Rinaldo Feb 2024 #10
I believe Liz is anti-choice, and pro-religious school public funding, right? lindysalsagal Feb 2024 #14
Which means she would siphon off more Repub then Dem votes. anamnua Feb 2024 #16
Her goal is to keep stinky out of the White House Norbert Feb 2024 #19

onecaliberal

(33,025 posts)
1. RFK isn't siphoning from Biden.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:08 PM
Feb 2024

Anti vaxxers and their murdering policy is reicht wing, not left. And idgaf what they call themselves. I have eyes and ears.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,728 posts)
3. There are anti vaxers on the left too
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:14 PM
Feb 2024

In fact, many of the numbskulls chanting “Genocide Joe” are probably prime candidates to be RFK voters, if he is on the ballot.

Voltaire2

(13,332 posts)
12. Sure, but they are very unlikely to be 'Biden voters'.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:32 PM
Feb 2024

We repeatedly insist that a person voting third party is a vote ‘taken’ from the democratic candidate. That is a claim that requires establishing that the person normally votes, and normally votes democratic.

There are people on the left who will never vote for a democratic or republican candidate. Their votes are basically irrelevant in our elections.

Voltaire2

(13,332 posts)
22. That isn't clear at all.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:51 PM
Feb 2024

Most analyses of Perot’s first campaign viewed the effect as neutral. As a third party centrist he did in fact pull in voters from the major parties, but pretty much equally from both.

Perot is an example of how a third party can draw from major parties- and the key factor is to occupy the center. The Libertarian Party on the right and the Green Party on the left both basically draw voters who won’t vote for either major party, and despite our perpetual angst, are not really a factor.

That said, if No Labels had its shit together it could manage to replicate Perot’s effort. There certainly are a lot of people not thrilled either major party candidate. Luckily that doesn’t appear likely.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,728 posts)
17. All it takes is a couple of thousand Biden votes switched out of millions in a swing state
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:06 PM
Feb 2024

To throw the election to Trump.

It’s the biggest danger this year IMO.

That’s why all third party candidates must be crushed.

Celerity

(43,871 posts)
6. It's shocking to see so many leftwingers lured to the far right by conspiracy theories
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:22 PM
Feb 2024
It’s not just anti-vaxxers. The themes of resisting power and regaining control of our lives have been cynically repurposed

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/sep/22/leftwingers-far-right-conspiracy-theories-anti-vaxxers-power



It’s an uncomfortable thing to admit, but in the countercultural movements where my sympathies lie, people are dropping like flies. Every few days I hear of another acquaintance who has become seriously ill with Covid, after proudly proclaiming the benefits of “natural immunity”, denouncing vaccines and refusing to take the precautions that apply to lesser mortals. Some have been hospitalised. Within these circles, which have for so long sought to cultivate a good society, there are people actively threatening the lives of others. It’s not just anti-vax beliefs that have been spreading through these movements. On an almost daily basis I see conspiracy theories travelling smoothly from right to left. I hear right-on people mouthing the claims of white supremacists, apparently in total ignorance of their origins. I encounter hippies who once sought to build communities sharing the memes of extreme individualism. Something has gone badly wrong in parts of the alternative scene.

There has long been an overlap between certain new age and far-right ideas. The Nazis embraced astrology, pagan festivals, organic farming, forest conservation, ecological education and nature worship. They promoted homeopathy and “natural healing”, and tended to resist vaccination. We should be aware of this history, but without indulging what Simon Schama calls the “obscene syllogism”: the idea that because the Nazis promoted new age beliefs, alternative medicine and ecological protection, anyone who does so is a Nazi. In the 1960s and 70s, European fascists sought to reinvent themselves, using themes developed by revolutionary anarchists. They found fertile ground in parts of the anarcho-primitivist and deep ecology movements, which they tried to steer towards notions of “ethnic separatism” and “indigenous” autonomy.

But much of what we are seeing at the moment is new. A few years ago, dreadlocked hippies spreading QAnon lies and muttering about a conspiracy against Donald Trump would have seemed unthinkable. Today, the old boundaries have broken down, and the most unlikely people have become susceptible to rightwing extremism. The anti-vaccine movement is a highly effective channel for the penetration of far-right ideas into leftwing countercultures. For several years, anti-vax has straddled the green left and the far right. Trump flirted with it, at one point inviting the anti-vaxxer Robert F Kennedy Jr to chair a “commission on vaccination safety and scientific integrity”. Anti-vax beliefs overlap strongly with a susceptibility to conspiracy theories. This tendency has been reinforced by Facebook algorithms directing vaccine-hesitant people towards far-right conspiracy groups. Ancient links between “wellness” movements and antisemitic paranoia have in some cases been re-established. The notion of the “sovereign body”, untainted by chemical contamination, has begun to fuse with the fear that a shadowy cabal is trying to deprive us of autonomy.

There’s a temptation to overthink this, and we should never discount the role of sheer bloody idiocy. Some anti-vaxxers are now calling themselves “purebloods”, a term that should send a chill through anyone even vaguely acquainted with 20th-century history. In their defence, however, if they can’t even get Harry Potter right (purebloods is what the bad guys call themselves), we can’t expect them to detect an echo of the Nuremberg laws. I believe this synthesis of left-alternative and rightwing cultures has been accelerated by despondency, confusion and betrayal. After left-ish political parties fell into line with corporate power, the right seized the language they had abandoned. Steve Bannon and Dominic Cummings brilliantly repurposed the leftwing themes of resisting elite power and regaining control of our lives. Now there has been an almost perfect language swap. Parties that once belonged on the left talk about security and stability while those on the right talk of liberation and revolt.

snip

bluestarone

(17,169 posts)
4. Just my opinion.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:15 PM
Feb 2024

I DON'T see her getting many Dem votes. Overall i say she gets MORE rethug votes than Dem votes.

TwilightZone

(25,542 posts)
11. I think she'd pull way more disaffected Rs than Ds
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:31 PM
Feb 2024

I can't imagine her getting many Dem votes, even from conservative Dems. There's too much at stake, and they're actually pretty reliable. 91% of moderate/conservative Dems voted for him in 2020.

https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2021/06/30/behind-bidens-2020-victory/

Fiendish Thingy

(15,728 posts)
5. I'm guessing she won't run
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:15 PM
Feb 2024

She would siphon off the Never Trumper vote that would otherwise go to Biden, and she says she doesn’t want to do that.

gab13by13

(21,542 posts)
7. That's what I think too,
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:23 PM
Feb 2024

but I am not a poll person. I'm sure Liz is thinking about that possibility also.

TwilightZone

(25,542 posts)
13. I'm not convinced that most Never Trumpers would vote for Biden.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:32 PM
Feb 2024

I think they stay home or skip the top line.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,728 posts)
18. Out of millions of votes in a swing state, all it would take is a couple of thousand
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:10 PM
Feb 2024

It would only take a couple of thousand Never Trumpers voting third party instead of Biden to flip a swing state to Trump, assuming margins are similar to 2020.

Less than a fraction of 1% of the total vote, especially in GA and AZ.

TwilightZone

(25,542 posts)
20. That's assuming they would have voted for Biden otherwise.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:24 PM
Feb 2024

It's not just Never Trumpers that factor in if she runs. It's the difference in where she draws votes from that matters. There are a lot of people who would vote for Trump simply because he's the Republican candidate, and polls show some of them to be pretty iffy. I think Cheney could very well draw a lot of those, plus former/current Haley voters, and the like.

I suppose it's possible she'd draw more from Biden, but I'm not sure that's likely. I'm sure she has access to internal polling. She's not going to run if it's a net negative for Biden. She knows she can't win outright, and her intent would be to run as a spoiler.

Fiendish Thingy

(15,728 posts)
24. 2,000 votes out of 5-7 million is a rounding error
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 02:09 PM
Feb 2024

A margin that thin can’t be accounted for with hunches, assumptions about voter behaviour or even by polls.

In GA, Trump lost by 11, 780 votes out of over 5 million votes cast.

Assuming 2024 margins will be as slim, If third party candidates take 2,000 Biden votes each (RFK, Stein, and No Labels), Trump wins.

The only way to counter that risk is to crush and destroy each and every third party candidate, and to significantly increase turnout among Gen Z, Women and POC, especially in swing states.

JHB

(37,169 posts)
8. It depends on whether her main "base" are the same Republicans who voted Libertarian in 2016...
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:25 PM
Feb 2024

...the "I don't like Trump, but there's no way I'm voting for a Democrat" Republicans.

brooklynite

(95,124 posts)
9. Can I offer a reality check?
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:27 PM
Feb 2024

You can't just "run for President". It requires a major effort and cost to get ballot access, which takes a huge amount of time. Assuming she's not going with NO LABELS (which I strongly doubt she would), it's nearly impossible to gear up a campaign at this late date.

intelpug

(88 posts)
23. reality check
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:57 PM
Feb 2024

Absolutely right. I always look forward to you and a few other posters for no nonsense reality based opinions on the issues, It is indeed too late for her to get any serious campaign together , should started a year ago given who she is up against.

Tom Rinaldo

(22,919 posts)
10. I trust her on this matter.
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:28 PM
Feb 2024

I don't think she is being driven by her on ego in making this decision. If she was, that could be dangerous since it could distort her judgement. In her case though I believe she is thinking strategically about how she can best use her voice to defeat Trump.

By running for President herself her voice will be elevated during the Presidential campaign and it will give her both a ready made platform and vehicle to promote and amplify her message that Trump is a danger to America. That is definitely for the good. Even if she is critical of Biden while running it is fine, since she always is very clear that Trump poses an existential threat to America while Biden does not. The people she can appeal to are not pro Biden, they are pro Democracy, and her message is that Trump will destroy Democracy.

At some point prior to November, if it appears from polling etc, that remaining in the race could hurt Biden, she could pull out and endorse Biden then instead . I actually believe her when she says that she will do everything she can to defeat Trump.

lindysalsagal

(20,816 posts)
14. I believe Liz is anti-choice, and pro-religious school public funding, right?
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 12:48 PM
Feb 2024

Hating tfg isn't enough reason, imho.

Norbert

(6,046 posts)
19. Her goal is to keep stinky out of the White House
Sun Feb 18, 2024, 01:10 PM
Feb 2024

I do believe that if she sees that her candidacy is helping trump she will withdrawl.

Latest Discussions»General Discussion»Liz Cheney May Run For Pr...