About That Poll (NY Times)

[brooklynite]

This paragraph in the write up struck me as important:

Mr. Trump is winning 97% of those who say they voted for him four years ago, and virtually none of his past supporters said they are casting a ballot for Mr. Biden. In contrast, Mr. Biden is winning only 83% of his 2020 voters, with 10 percent saying they now back Mr. Trump.

That suggests that the main reason Biden is trailing is that his supporters have not come home yet.

It makes some sense. Trump has been formally running for president since he announced just after the 2022 midterms. He’s been indicted four times and each time his base inexplicably rallies around him. He’s had several real challengers in a Republican primary so he’s had to campaign.

In contrast, Biden has spent this time governing the country. His only real primary challenger, Rep. Dean Phillips, finished fourth in a two-man race in Michigan.

It’s a good bet that Biden’s supporters will ultimately come back to him as the campaign heats up.

https://politicalwire.com/2024/03/02/about-that-poll

Of course, not nearly as entertaining as "The Times is biasing its polling to help Trump."

[TwilightZone]

1. In context, it does make sense.

Phillips and Williamson voters (she's back in the race, apparently) aren't likely to say they're going to vote for Biden until the primaries are resolved. That happens pretty much every cycle.

Also, as noted, Biden really just started campaigning. There's plenty of time for his support to solidify as it did as the primary season unfolded in 2020.

[riversedge]

2. I hope Democrats are NOT taking up this bet without actually putting up LOTs of work

--and money to help the #Biden-Harris ticket WIN.
I say this because I have heard so many people say--oh, Trump can't win again!!


"It’s a good bet that Biden’s supporters will ultimately come back to him as the campaign heats up. "

[TwilightZone]

10. The race was always going to be close.

We'd all prefer a huge lead and an eventual blowout, of course, but I think a close race guards against complacency. We also have to remember that popular vote is irrelevant in the end.

That being said, about the only place I ever see anyone claim that Biden is going to win easily is here on DU, though I admittedly don't spend much time at all on social media, etc.

[RKP5637]

3. I just don't get what is so horrible about Biden, especially, in comparison to Trump.

[Tennessee Hillbilly]

17. Biden isn't horrible.

But too many Americans are used to to being entertained. They expect a candidate to create a sense of excitement. JFK said that people are attracted to a candidate who has "charisma". Biden seems dull to many people.

Trump doesn't have charisma either. But he knows something about show business. He's always in the news. Remember the old hollywood maxim: "There's no such thing as bad publicity."

[RKP5637]

20. Yep, exactly!

[All Mixed Up]

41. People think the state of America right now is horrible.

And as president, Biden is going to get the blame fair or not.

Did Bush's economic policies cause the recession in the early 90s? Probably not. The recession was going to likely happen coming out of the Reagan years no matter who was president.

But Bush largely got the blame.

Was Carter responsible for the energy crisis and sky-high inflation? Nope. But he still got the blame for it.

Hell, the great depression literally happened weeks into Hoover's presidency and he's still remembered as the president who caused it even though he had no tangible way of doing so as president (granted his actions after the start didn't help, including signing the Smoot–Hawley Tariff Act).

The point is, Americans are not satisfied with the country. You can talk about the booming economy but when they still can't afford groceries or rent or to buy a house, that all feels distant.

It's not Biden's fault. But he'll get the blame as president.

Even Obama was starting to get a stronger amount of blame for the poor economy in 2012 despite everyone knowing the recession started under Bush. It's a big reason his reelection wasn't in the bag until late in the process.

We just gotta hope prices continue to fall. If they do, Biden will likely benefit. If they don't, he will struggle in November.

[RKP5637]

48. Excellent summary!

[David__77]

4. That explanation of the poll makes sense.

This is a very different scenario than 2020.

[samsingh]

9. yes

i remember seeing a headline which said Trump sails to victory in Michigan with 60% of the vote, while Biden struggles with 81% of the vote due to protest vote.

[Charging Triceratops]

5. More polls ...

... more lies.

[Alliepoo]

6. Thank you.

This makes me feel better and less sick at heart.

[Ocelot II]

7. "Dean Phillips finished fourth in a two man race," LOL!

I hope the clue bird shits on his head pretty soon, not that he's a serious threat; and that he and new-age squirrel Williamson go the hell away.

[emulatorloo]

26. He's a spoiler so he has plenty of Republican cash to keep trying to spoil.

[Ocelot II]

27. He doesn't seem to be very good at it, though.

[emulatorloo]

31. He's horrible at it!

Makes crystal lady look like a seasoned politician.

[samsingh]

8. i think a lot more than 3% of trump's supporters have fled. look at the decline in attendance in his rallies

[TwilightZone]

11. Rally attendance really isn't indicative of anything.

If it was, we would have had President Bernie Sanders.

Trump's support is historically pretty stable and his approval ratings, inexplicably, are at near highs. Doesn't make any sense, but I think it also supports the claim that his supporters haven't left yet.

[karynnj]

12. Unless people are lying, that quote makes it worse not better

I personally find it hard to believe that 10 percent of people who voted for Biden now support Trump. Supporting Trump is different than saying they are undecided. Saying they are now with Trump is not a case of them not yet having "come home".

I hope this is a bad sample. Consider that samples now have about a 2 percent response rate.

[Gidney N Cloyd]

13. Yeah, that's the part I choked on, too.

I can understand a previous Biden voter withholding support in hopes of a different Democrat or even noodling the idea of going third party but I can't see anyone switching specifically to Trump.

[womanofthehills]

16. Many people are just not that into politics

Those who don’t follow closely are probably the ones who can switch easily.

Here is the whole poll from NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/03/02/us/elections/times-siena-national-poll-toplines.html

[Polybius]

21. Here's why it could be true

A few Biden voters in 2020 voted for Trump in 2016, mainly because they thought Trump was a jerk with poor character and hated his nasty Tweets.

I know one guy (solid Republican voter except for Biden in 2020) who did exactly that, and he gave me these reasons. He deeply regrets it. He still can't stand Trump the person, but will vote for him because he agrees with him more on policy than Biden.

[All Mixed Up]

42. When you start to break polls down like this, the MOE becomes much bigger.

Since you're dealing with a smaller sample.

So, just looking at responses who said they voted Biden in 2020 is going to be smaller than their overall sample and more prone to volatility. It's likely to have a higher MOE, maybe even close to +/-10 points.

So, it could be as low as 3% or something.

[karynnj]

44. Good points

[Fiendish Thingy]

14. The Times' polls are consistently outliers, to generate clicks and views

About that poll:

Small sample size of 980
Undersample of Gen Z voters, just 16%
Republicans were 30%,( reweighted from actual sample of 28%), Dems 29%, Independents 34% - once again, Republicans oversampled, Dems significantly undersampled.

Actual national partisan affiliation, according to Ballotopedia:

As of October 2022, 48 million registered voters in these areas identified themselves as Democrats. At 38.78%, Democrats represented the single largest share of registered voters in the states and territories that allow voters to indicate partisan affiliation on their registration forms.
A total of 36.4 million registered voters identified themselves as Republicans, representing 29.42% of registered voters in these areas.
A total of 35.3 million registered voters identified themselves as independents or unaffiliated with any political party. This amounted to 28.55% of registered voters in these areas.
Approximately 4 million registered voters identified themselves as members of other political parties. This amounted to 3.25% of registered voters in these areas.

Party identification including leaners - Dem 43% GOP 49%

“Who did you vote for in 2020?” - Trump 34% Biden 44% Didn’t Vote - 18%
“Which 2024 primary did you/will you vote in?” - Dem 28% GOP 36% Unlikely to vote 28%

37% of respondents reported incomes of over $100k

Methodology
The New York Times/Siena College poll of 980 registered voters nationwide, including 823 who completed the full survey, was conducted in English and Spanish on cellular and landline telephones from Feb. 25 to 28, 2024. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 3.8 percentage points for the likely electorate. Among those who completed the full survey, the margin of sampling error is plus or minus 4 percentage points for registered voters and plus or minus 4.2 percentage points for the likely electorate.

That’s a pretty big MOE- IIRC, most other pollsters are using sample sizes of around 2,000 with a MOE of around 2.5-3.0% for likely voters.

Weighting used something called the “L2 model”, which isn’t described or disclosed clearly, and so, should be eyed with caution. Weighting methodology is often the least scientific element of all the elements in a poll, which some veteran pollsters refer to as a not-so-educated guess based on their “gut”, “hunches”, or simply, bias.

Their was also a lot of incomprehensible gobbledegook about how many respondents from each state were used, but regionally, the South was over represented at 35% of the sample, with the Northeast only 20% (reweighted from actual sample of 22%), West at 23%, and Midwest at 22%.

Free link to cross tabs and methodology:

https://archive.ph/zLkgK

So, plenty of room for criticism, don’t you think?

[TwilightZone]

23. Pollsters adjust for oversampling.

They always have. It's not the huge issue that everyone wants it to be.

[Fiendish Thingy]

25. Actually it is a huge issue

Adjusting for Oversampling is known as reweighting, and it is a non-standardized, unscientific dirty little secret of the polling industry.

Oversampling, and more importantly, the inconsistent, Inaccurate reweighting techniques are, IMO, largely the reason polls have gotten less accurate over the past decade.

[barbaraann]

32. I'd like to add something to your signature line quote.

Without facts and local journalism, you can't have the truth...

I'm living the nightmare of no local newspaper.

[edhopper]

15. How are 97% still voting for him

when he gets only 60% in the GOP Primaries?

[former9thward]

18. They know the primaries will be over.

And in the general election their candidate will have dropped out and they will support the party nominee.

[HareKrishna]

29. You're telling us Trump is dropping out?

[former9thward]

40. No.

The OP is about Trump's support.

[TwilightZone]

22. Because most of the other 40% were always going to vote for him in November.

The endless claims that the primaries have some big correlation with the general election were always nonsense. There is no correlation. None. The vast majority of Republicans were always going to vote for him in November, regardless of whom they voted for in the primaries.

He got 35% in the primaries in multiple states in 2016 and lost 15 primaries. How did that work out? Did 65% of Republicans stay home or vote for Biden?

[RANDYWILDMAN]

19. if Biden does not win big I will be shocked

at how much power the big ultra media companies have to make a horse race out of a bag of shit !


We got a demented criminal on the one hand from a family of criminals and the other guy who governs for all Americans

should be a no brainier blowout !

[brooklynite]

30. If you have a reason to dislike Political Wire, please share......

[spanone]

28. 10% will now back trmp?

What the hell happened to them?

[Think. Again.]

33. (pssssttt... it's not true.)

[vercetti2021]

34. I'm just going to say this

If a party is losing special elections across the country since 2022 and underperforming severely. Something is wrong with polling then.

[sop]

35. I'm seeing this NYT poll given a lot coverage on a number of sites.

The lead paragraph discussing this NYT poll on one left-leaning site: "A new poll shows that many voters are increasingly put off by President Joe Biden’s leadership, while former President Donald Trump has garnered relatively high support ahead of November’s election."

At times like these it seems we're in one of those Twilight Zone episodes where the main character wakes up in an alternate reality and discovers everyone has gone completely crazy. In the closing scene, after repeatedly trying to make sense of it all, the main character ends up running down the street screaming in terror.

[d_b]

36. Joe and Dump tied with women at 46%

Sounds like a serious poll 👍🏼

wonder what other goodies are in there…

[SoFlaBro]

37. You're always racing to DU to defend these chump-ass polls. Do you make a living from polling sciences?

[brooklynite]

38. No. I'm a retired transportation planner.

But I work in politics with a lot of actual Democratic campaigns and officials, up to and including the Biden campaign team. And they still rely on polling data to inform their campaign strategy.

I also have a policy of avoiding knee-jerk conspiracy theories that may make bad news feel go down better, but don't provide a good starting point to tweak a political campaign.

I'll ask you the same question I;'ve asked others. If you don't trust this or other polls, what do you believe the actual voter preference numbers are?

[SoFlaBro]

39. How do you know that the polls are not just made up? There is ZERO to validate accuracy since there is no election.

They can print any numbers they want as long as the election result is within the margin of error.

[TexasDem69]

43. You think someone just created this poll out of whole cloth?

Thats your response? “I don’t like the poll, so it’s not even really real.”? As we say in North Carolina, bless your heart.

[videohead5]

45. The poll is flawed

They only sampled 3% of Latinos and Trump is winning them and President Biden and Trump are tied with women? Yeah, and I have some land in Florida.

[SoFlaBro]

47. I asked what is the method of verification. You know what you can do with your blessing.

[BootinUp]

46. The article in the NYT is definitely flawed and the poll ain't worth much. nt