UK Parliament: Who would win if an election was held today?

[brooklynite]

New Statesman

Currently:
Labour 419 MPs
▲ 217

Conservative 156 MPs
▼ 209

Liberal Democrats 30 MPs
▲ 19

Green 1 MP

Scottish National 21 MPs
▼ 27

Plaid Cymru 4 MPs

Reform 0 MPs

Other 1 MP

Introducing Britain Predicts. Built by Ben Walker of Britain Elects, and Michael Goodier and Josh Rayman of the New Statesman, Britain Predicts turns poll shares into predicted seats in the House of Commons through a modified system of the strong transition model. Regularly reviewed and updated, the model is one of the more advanced daily predictors of a general election result.

[Doodley]

1. The Tories will be out for a generation.

[RainCaster]

2. I'm hoping for the same thing in the US

I want to see the biggest ducking blue wave that anyone ever imagined.

[brooklynite]

3. Highly unlikely

Of 435 House seats, only 21 are rated as Toss-ups, and they're evenly split between Republicans and Democrats.

[GregariousGroundhog]

4. There will likely be a U.K. election later this year

Their parliament must dissolve by December 17th, and the election to replace it must happen by January 28 of next year.