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Celerity

(44,213 posts)
Sat May 18, 2024, 08:06 PM May 18

Second Russian invasion of Kharkiv caught Ukraine unprepared



Despite months of complaints from troops over shortages and fatigue, Kyiv has been slow to ramp up mobilization, leaving some areas of the front critically understaffed.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/05/17/kharkive-defenses-ukraine-russia-reinvasion/

https://archive.ph/C5A5T


Men dig and reinforce trenches on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv on May 15, 2024. Fighting north and east of Kharkiv has been described as "very difficult" but "under control" by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (Photos by Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)

KHARKIV, Ukraine — Russia’s new offensive across Ukraine’s northeastern border had been expected for months — yet it still surprised the Ukrainian soldiers stationed there to defend against it. Ukraine’s 125th Territorial Defense Brigade — stretched thin along a roughly 27-mile stretch of the Kharkiv region’s border with Russia — used reconnaissance drones to monitor, daily, how Moscow was steadily building up forces for a possible attack. But the morning it happened, May 10, the brigade lost all its video feeds due to Russian electronic jamming. Its Starlink devices — satellite internet the Ukrainian military relies on for basic communication — failed, the first time it was knocked out completely for them since Russia’s invasion in February 2022. “We were left at a certain point completely blind,” said a drone unit commander in the brigade. The Post agreed to identify him by his call sign, Artist, in keeping with Ukrainian military protocol.


Men work on a tower block that was hit in a Russian strike the day before on May 15, 2024, in Kharkiv. Nearly 8,000 civilians have been evacuated — a wave of displacement not seen since the early days of the invasion. (Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)

“This was the biggest problem, we didn’t see how they were moving, we only worked through radio or through phones where they still worked,” Artist, a 53-year-old sergeant, said. The drone feeds, he said, “simply disappeared.” Within days, the Russians had captured — for the second time — some 50 square miles of territory along the border, capitalizing on a moment of particular vulnerability for Ukraine’s military. A U.S. aid package, including funding for precious ammunition for artillery and air defense, stalled in Congress for more than six months before it was approved last month, leaving forces on the front line often unable to fire back as their positions were pummeled. Meanwhile, despite military personnel complaining for months of personnel shortages and extreme fatigue among troops who have been fighting for more than two years, the government in Kyiv has been slow to ramp up mobilization, leaving some areas of the front critically understaffed.



But Russia’s battlefield gains in recent days were not only a result of Ukrainian shortfalls. Begrudgingly, Ukrainian troops admit that their enemy has gotten smarter and adapted, especially with technological advancements such as electronic warfare — a sharp contrast with the first year of the invasion, when Russia’s own blunders and overconfidence allowed the Ukrainians to hold key cities and later liberate large swaths of territory in successful counteroffensives. The new Russian advances, in Kharkiv and in the neighboring Donetsk region, have prompted questions about the viability of Ukraine’s defense — not only if Kyiv can fulfill its promise of expelling all invaders, but also if Russia will soon overpower Ukraine’s forces and seize more territory. The latest assault on the Kharkiv border has forced Ukraine to redirect some reserves north, potentially imperiling other positions.


Men dig and reinforce trenches on the northern outskirts of Kharkiv on May 15, 2024. (Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)

Even as they watched the Russians building up forces, Artist, the drone commander in the 125th Brigade, said the Ukrainians were largely unable to construct the kind of fortified defense lines now being emphasized by the government and by military commanders. The Russians’ own layered web of “dragon’s teeth” antitank pyramid blocks, mines and concrete-reinforced trenches proved effective against Ukraine’s disappointing southeastern counteroffensive last summer. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky even visited the Kharkiv border in April to inspect the newly reinforced defenses. But Artist and other soldiers said that every time the units stationed here tried to build fortified lines, the Russians — using their own reconnaissance drones — would monitor their activity and fire on them.


Military vehicles drive through the village of Tsyrkuny to the north of Kharkiv city on May 15, 2024. (Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)

snip


Seen from a destroyed building a man in military uniform walks in the village of Tsyrkuny to the north of Kharkiv on May 15, 2024. (Ed Ram/For The Washington Post)
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Lancero

(3,028 posts)
3. We're only just now approving weapons that Ukraine has been requesting since the war started.
Sat May 18, 2024, 08:20 PM
May 18

Quite a few Western nations who drug their feet for years on support are fine with that too.

And, well, lets not forget the Western nations who are still actively funding the Russian war machine.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/new-west-east-route-keeps-europe-hooked-russian-gas-2024-04-03/

Lancero

(3,028 posts)
2. How certain are they that Russian jamming disabled their starlink connections?
Sat May 18, 2024, 08:11 PM
May 18

Wouldn't be the first time that Musky pulled the plug on them to Russia's benefit.

WarGamer

(12,689 posts)
4. Ukraine doesn't have enough SOLDIERS... a greater need than weapons.
Sat May 18, 2024, 08:38 PM
May 18

Russia is attacking in the North to weaken the AFU in Donetsk...

Ukraine can't cover all these defensive areas.

Russia now has a very large manpower advantage in Ukraine.

Political concerns have made it tough for Ukraine to conscript the youth...

Translation... Z is afraid he will lose support for the war if they start forcibly conscripting 20-somethings off the street.

Today, the average age of a combat soldier for the AFU is in the 40's...

Kaleva

(36,511 posts)
6. Rule of thumb for a successful attack is a 3-1 advantage in capabilities
Sat May 18, 2024, 09:12 PM
May 18

Not a 3-1 advantage in manpower.

Having superior Western weapons can give the Ukrainians a capability that can negate the Russian superiority in manpower.

Ukraine also has the advantage of using interior lines allowing it to respond quicker while for Russia, it takes longer to move forces from one sector to another and to supply them .

WarGamer

(12,689 posts)
8. I follow some experts on X...
Sat May 18, 2024, 09:15 PM
May 18

like @RALee85

Russia isn't going to try to take Kharkiv... it's a maneuver to weaken the AFU defense in Donetsk.

Kaleva

(36,511 posts)
5. Ukrainians were prepared. The Russian offensive has stalled
Sat May 18, 2024, 08:57 PM
May 18

"Moscow's forces were halted by Ukraine's first line of defense, Zelensky said. They did not reach concrete fortifications, he added.
"The first and second lines are being built by the military, and the third line is built by local authorities. It is the most powerful... simply because it is further from (Russian) weapons, from shelling," Zelensky said.

"The deepest point of their advance is 10 kilometers. In some areas, there was no advance.""

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/zelensky-russia-s-kharkiv-oblast-offensive-advances-as-far-as-10-km-halted-by-1st-defense-line/ar-BB1mzfTO

In an effort to downplay expectations, Putin recently announced the purpose of the offensive is to create a buffer zone and not to take Kharkiv.

"Putin says Russian offensive in Ukraine’s Kharkiv region aims to create buffer zone but no plans to capture city"

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/nation-world/story/2024-05-17/putin-says-russian-offensive-in-ukraines-kharkiv-region-aims-to-create-buffer-zone-but-no-plans-to-capture-city

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