NOAA 2024 hurricane season forecast warns of more storms than ever. Here's why.

[sl8]

https://www.cbsnews.com/miami/news/noaa-forecast-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season/#:

(5:15 min. video at link)

NOAA 2024 hurricane season forecast warns of more storms than ever. Here's why.

By Hunter Geisel, Ivan Cabrera, Cara Tabachnick
Updated on: May 23, 2024 / 11:32 AM EDT / CBS Miami

MIAMI — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released its 2024 forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1. NOAA's report predicts an "above average" hurricane season with 17 to 25 named storms, 8 to 13 hurricanes, and 4 to 7 major hurricanes of category 3 or higher.

"Of note, the forecast for named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes is the highest NOAA has ever issued for the May outlook," said NOAA Administrator Dr. Rick Spinrad.

According to NOAA's 2024 outlook, there is an 85% chance of an above-normal season, 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season. Of these predictions made, NOAA said its forecasters are 70% confident in these ranges.

The hurricane season officially starts on June 1 and ends on November 30, with most activity occurring between mid-August and mid-October. An average season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, and three major hurricanes.

[...]

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From NOAA:

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa-predicts-above-normal-2024-atlantic-hurricane-season
(graphics & more at link)

NOAA predicts above-normal 2024 Atlantic hurricane season

La Nina and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are major drivers of tropical activity.

May 23, 2024

NOAA National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center predict above-normal hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. NOAA’s outlook for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, predicts an 85% chance of an above-normal season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of a below-normal season.

NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.

The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation.

[...]

[Arne]

1. I have a map and a Sharpie, and I know where mar a lago is.

[malaise]

2. K &R

For visibility

[True Dough]

9. Wasn't sure if you saw this, malaise...

Link to tweet

Climate change threatens low-lying Caribbean hospitals, UN says http://reut.rs/4dYZ1tZ

[The Unmitigated Gall]

3. Just in time for DeShitbag

To outlaw any mention of global warming/climate change .

[wnylib]

4. If we're lucky, both he and the orange fascist will get caught

in private planes trying to flee a Cat 5 (which conveniently misses landfall) and be gone with the winds.

[New Breed Leader]

5. That would be fantastic

[wnylib]

8. Not likely, of course, but I can dream.

[Wednesdays]

6. We really dodged a bullet last year when the Gulf was way above record temperature

We may not be so lucky this year.

[-misanthroptimist]

7. I'm convinced

Just told my wife it's time to sell our house and at long last get the hell out of FL for good. Between the record warmth in the Main Development Region and the emerging La Nina, this year is set up for records or all kinds -most storms, most hurricanes, most major hurricanes, strongest hurricane...you name it. Now, maybe none of that will happen, but the indicators are all there. Would not be surprised to see more than one hurricane with 200+ mph winds.

I have no desire to see any of it, much less experience it.